EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.

Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

[qesehmk]

Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

[TeddyKoochu]

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

Q good derivation for the porting number. I agree most of it is porting some other things that maybe playing out here are a) Spouse getting approved in 2007 and then getting citizenship and now dependent getting GC under FB b) Abandonment and returning to home country and c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India, this number is very significant, even if spouse were in EB3, EB3 ROW is in 2011 and had touched 2012 briefly.

[qesehmk]

c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India.

Good morning Teddy! This thing you mention reminds me of two of my friends who ended up marrying Koreans and Russians! I agree it's not that uncommon.

[anuprab]

all these calculations and possibility that dates may not move post May 2010 even in fiscal 2015 is making me dizzy. Experts is there really no hope for people from May 2010 in 2015 fiscal! Do I have to wait till summer of 2016 to even file 485??

[cursedguy]

No offense to the experts, but right now they are working with limited data, they will have a better idea after this USCIS fiscal is complete.

[anuprab]

I guess you are right but I am just so frustrated and trying to find some hope. Guess its just wait and watch right now, cant jump to any conclusions.

[redwood]

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

[qesehmk]

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

Thanks redwood. I was not being precise. Not sure if you got the point. So let me explain again ...

of those 8K ... roughly 2K would be from last quarter. So take out those 2K reduction from 11k. That's 9K for reduction in 2014 for first 3 quarters.

Assume full year will be 9K only i.e. EB3I has exhausted the quota. So that's 6K extra over quota.

So where have those 6K gone this year?

Answer is - portings, cancellations and denials. Denials are not usually more than 5%. So that's negligible. So basically its portings and cancellations.

I would rather have cancellations even out with the NVC data reduction that is not factored in here. So 6K is purely for portings.

The only caveat here is if EB3I received more than its quota. I think that's an extremely low probability this year because this year ROW was retrogressed in EB3 - which was not the case last year. Last year EB3ROW moved rapidly forward and hence was in the mode of building inventory.

Thus portings in EB3I to EB2I are approx 5-6K.

p.s. - Correction - actually an assumption is not required.

Comparing Oct 12/Oct 13 EB3I reduced from 47K->34K = 13K. Of that 8K is allocation and so 5K is portings + denials. As I said I let NVC data take care of denials. And so 5K certainly was the number for portings last year.

This year however, the picture is different.

Looking at Oct 2013 and Jul 2014 485 inventory one can see only 4.3K reduction in the inventory. On a full year basis that's 5.6K. Not sure how much NVC would be. But strictly based on this data it doesnt look like it's going to be 5K portings pre 2007 for year 2014. It actually does look like under 3K. Of course Q4 is where most of the action happens. So we can't say for sure. But if only consider what we know so far then indeed for 2014 the number look like under 3K.

[gkjppp]

Most likely 2014 GC quota ends at May 1st ,2009.Any guestimate on 2015 GC forward movement? Any Calculations?

Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

[helooo]

Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!

Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

[helooo]

Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.

[qesehmk]

I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.

In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.

[helooo]

In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.

Yes,I heard that and frankly I don't want to live in CA anyways.Even I was asked lot of questions when I came from CA last time.Last year lot of my friends who filed for first time got EAD in 30-35 days and GC in 50-60days but it's different this year.Thats why I was trying to get your opinion.

[rka_72]

Spec, Q and Gurus...
Do you think TSC will be able to process cases beyond the cases current in Jul bulletin (i.e. cases from 1st Sep to 22nd Jan) before NSC starts eating up visas from 22Jan2009-01May2009 from 01SEP? Is TSC having too many cases prior to 01SEP2008 that they are not able to handle?

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

[drop2ocean]

Gurus,

What are the chances of getting EAD for June 15 2010 EB2I next year ?

Appreciate your response.

[HR3012]

Slim to none. At the current state of affairs, some July filers may receive GCs in October, that's about it. No chance for August and September filers.

Are you serious sports???

[jimmys]

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

If you file it on Sep 2,2014 and the dates don't retrogress for the rest of the year you have a chance. If the dates retrogress in Nov as mentioned by VO the chances are slim to none.

[EB2EB2]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

[Spectator]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.

[pdfeb09]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

[EB2EB2]

Originally Posted by EB2EB2 View Post
Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.

Hi Spectator, RD for my I-485 is Feb 10th, 2012. Medical was expired, got the RFE, and responded to RFE on July 11, 2014.

[bvsamrat]

is there is any rule or practice that 2008 backlog is to be cleared before 2009?
I guess that once current all PD will have equal choice

Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

Is there