EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[aquatican]

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)

Vedu,
Lol. I saw the bulletin and then chose the name knowing that my fate is most likely "almost" for this time
I am still hoping that the date do move forward in the next one and they allocate the next years quota by end of this year. Will save me the trouble of renewing EAD which expires in March 15. Other than that I dont care much as I made the career move without waiting for the GC.

[kd2008]

kd,

If there is no creative solution, or unless there are substantial FB visas available in FY2015, I don't see a move beyond 01MAY10 until the second half of FY2016.

Spec, thanks for the indication. May be I should be back after another year & a half

[kkruna]

If CO did that, he would be one of my favorite people in this world.

I totally agree that the new medical policy gives the USCIS a new tool to curb the demand. This can only mean that CO will get tremendous flexibility to move dates and make folks in 2010/early 2011 current. I really hope they can pull this off.

Last time CO kept on talking about "insufficient demand" as he moved dates during Jul'11 to Apr'12 - and built up inventory for around 3 years.

[almost]

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)

aquatican,
I do believe what you are saying is correct but this time it's the ambiquity of the verbiage on predictions that induces hope. We will know for sure in a few weeks. I am counting more on the next year's quota at this point.

[akshaya8]

Juky 15th 2008 to May 1st 2009 total Inventory is 13,365 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K - 16K required to maintain 4K backlog for next year. anything less than that means inventory backlog before May 1st 2009 will be more than 4K, Do EB2 India get 16K this year???????

ESTIMATE NUMBERS:
Assume EB2 India gets 16K this year,For Next year EB2 India remaining Inventory is
May 1st 2009 to May 1st 2010 is 13,344 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K so atleast 20K required to clear current Inventory.
TOTAL NUMBERS
July '2013 to July'2014 EB2 India Inventory diff is = 43418 - 31,234 = 12K actual inventory reduction happend for last year, next 2 years we may get spill over more than last year...

keeping this trend makes inventory after this year(2014) movement will be 31 - 12 = 19K and after Next year(2015) 19K-12K = 7k left for Year 2016....

Both logics demand 20K and possibilty of 20K allocation to EB2 India may no happen this next year SO Building Inventory may not happen before Sept'2015..............


Next year spill over

EB 5 - 0 Throughout last year prediction was cutoffdate for EB5 china, it may happen this year.

EB1 - 0

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 11,016 and this July 2014 inventory is 20,128 so inventory increased by 9K EB1 demand is surging don't expect spill over...
EB2 ROW

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 7,742 and this July 2014 inventory is 12,173 so inventory increased by 5K next year we are starting with 5K more demand for EB2 ROW.

[Rachel]

Just scroll thru the last 2 pages in this thread.

I'm hoping the bulletin get releases and then I'll make my move accordingly. If the dates advance, then I'll wait for 69 days from RFERR. If not raise SR. At this point I'm mentally prepared that I won't get this year and honestly it makes me envious of the NSC approvals.

before that, the talk to L2.

Online status for my application hasnt changed from initial review.

1)What is L2? How do I contact?
2)How do I raise the matter for Senator Review?

Please help. Thanks

[Kanmani]

aquatican,
I do believe what you are saying is correct but this time it's the ambiquity of the verbiage on predictions that induces hope. We will know for sure in a few weeks. I am counting more on the next year's quota at this point.

almost,

We, although my pd is 2 months later than that of yours, I included May, June, up to July15 into the we and we cannot count for the next year's quota. Those days are all gone and the regular quota movements are history.

Nowadays annual allocation of EB2-India Visas are absorbed by porters' , so obviously we must wait until next spillover season. (Assuming, but not wishing no movement next month)

[gkjppp]

Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order

[vyruss]

Will there be movement in the next month? So assuming that the current movement will take care of inventory through April 30th 2009, should they not move dates for approximately (2800/12) if they assign monthly quota for next year in October. The only reason why they would not is porting demand. Are there other reasons besides the randomness associated with the unknowns in the black box.

[Spectator]

Will there be movement in the next month? So assuming that the current movement will take care of inventory through April 30th 2009, should they not move dates for approximately (2800/12) if they assign monthly quota for next year in October. The only reason why they would not is porting demand. Are there other reasons besides the randomness associated with the unknowns in the black box.

You are assuming that :

a) Every case with a PD earlier than 01MAY09 will be ready to be adjudicated before the end of September 2014.

b) That there are sufficient visa numbers available in FY2014 to approve all cases with a PD earlier than 01MAY09.

I'm not sure I would agree with either assumption.

Generally, visas run out before the end of September, but cases can still be adjudicated during the remainder of September and left in the pending file until the new FY allocation becomes available in October. CO must then decide how much he is prepared to use when he sets the COD.

There are also a significant number of new applications that have been submitted within even the July/August Cut Off Dates. They will become ready to be adjudicated at some point.

Last year (FY2013), the COD moved to 15JUN08 by the end of the FY, but as many as 6-7k of those had to be approved within this FY's (FY2014) allocation.

[self.coach]

I looked at the forward movement and.....oh well...life goes on.

[vyruss]

You are assuming that :

Last year (FY2013), the COD moved to 15JUN08 by the end of the FY, but as many as 6-7k of those had to be approved within this FY's (FY2014) allocation.

Spec, what I gather from your post is that it is highly unlikely for any forward movement in October. The movement to May 1, 2009 assumes that there will be some applications that will be carried forward to next year. The intention is to perhaps not waste any Visas for 2014, so there would be some buffer that will be carried forward.

[Spectator]

Spec, what I gather from your post is that it is highly unlikely for any forward movement in October. The movement to May 1, 2009 assumes that there will be some applications that will be carried forward to next year. The intention is to perhaps not waste any Visas for 2014, so there would be some buffer that will be carried forward.

vyruss,

That's correct.

I don't think or expect that everybody will agree with that opinion, but if a contingency is not built into the COD movement, then visas would potentially be wasted.

People will probably differ in their view of the size of that contingency and thus the numbers that must fall through to FY2015.

I may be wrong in my view.

[jdoe99]

vyruss,

That's correct.

I don't think or expect that everybody will agree with that opinion, but if a contingency is not built into the COD movement, then visas would potentially be wasted.

People will probably differ in their view of the size of that contingency and thus the numbers that must fall through to FY2015.

I may be wrong in my view.

Spec and other experts: Could you give your take on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks.

[Spectator]

Spec and other experts: Could you give your take on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks.

I assume you mean those that filed for the first time in July and August.

Some lucky ones may get an approval, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Looking at EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW, there are some approval times less than the probable window available to the end of October. The average approval time for both those Categories is more than 4 months, so I think it is pot luck. EB3-ROW is a better analogy, since they will already have an approved I-140 and the processing time purely reflects that for the I-485.

[jdoe99]

Thanks Spec. I kind of assumed that approval is not happening this year except for a few lucky ones who sneak through.

[almost]

almost,

We, although my pd is 2 months later than that of yours, I included May, June, up to July15 into the we and we cannot count for the next year's quota. Those days are all gone and the regular quota movements are history.

Nowadays annual allocation of EB2-India Visas are absorbed by porters' , so obviously we must wait until next spillover season. (Assuming, but not wishing no movement next month)

Kanmani,
You are probably right about assuming that there will be no quota available for anything in the begining of the year but there have been cases in the past where this has happened. I think I saw some cases on trackitt sometime ago. It would suck bigtime, for me especially, if I have to wait till next spillover season for the GC...uggghhh ..... dont even want to think about that ...... but, knowing my luck it would probably be the case.

[rka_72]

Has anyone seen the latest demand data (for Sep) or its not released?

[Kanmani]

Has anyone seen the latest demand data (for Sep) or its not released?

DoS stopped publishing it to public.

[iatiam]

As much as it is heart-breaking to see that Gurus like Kanimani did not get current this time around, I would like to re-affirm that there is some has been some good movement for this year so keep the hopes high. Seems like EB2I follows the Goldilock's theory; at the end we tend to get just enough luck to get a lot of people greened - never too low, never too high. As always, some people are always left behind.

So I am optimistic. Despite the dire situation predicted for next year, I think a lot of things can happen from now and next summer. There might be executive action from the president, there could be legislative relief. I mean who knows.

Cheers

Iatiam

[rka_72]

TSC's slow pace will probably hit the filers with most PDs beyond 31 Aug 2008 since from 1st Sep NSC will take up 22 Jan 2009 onwards cases as well. If TSC doesn't catch up in remaining part of Aug, there will be hardly any visas left and for most in TSC its over until next year.

[helooo]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
My PD is 6/16/2008.We filed our 485 first time on 6/30/14 got FP notice for 8/4/14.We did early FP on 7/18/14.It says Initial review for EAD/AP since 7/1/2014 and Acceptance on 7/3/14 for 485.When can we expect EAD or if there is any possibility for GC?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
My PD is 6/16/2008.We filed our 485 first time on 6/30/14 got FP notice for 8/4/14.We did early FP on 7/18/14.It says Initial review for EAD/AP since 7/1/2014 and Acceptance on 7/3/14 for 485.When can we expect EAD or if there is any possibility for GC?

Thanks

heloo - It would be reasonable to expect a GC in Sep if not in Oct. You should definitely be greened this year only.

[justvisiting]

kd,

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

Two problems with your approach:
-New applicants: Those who never filed an I-485 would not need to await an RFE
-Aggressive applicants: Nothing in the law compels you to wait for USCIS to issue an RFE before sending them updated medicals. In fact a good case can be made that if your I-485 is current you have a responsibility to send the new medicals to remain a "bona fide" applicant for adjustment of status.
USCIS would essentially have to make a regulation saying that an expired medical is only expired when USCIS says so on an RFE.

[Spectator]

Two problems with your approach:
-New applicants: Those who never filed an I-485 would not need to await an RFE
-Aggressive applicants: Nothing in the law compels you to wait for USCIS to issue an RFE before sending them updated medicals. In fact a good case can be made that if your I-485 is current you have a responsibility to send the new medicals to remain a "bona fide" applicant for adjustment of status.
USCIS would essentially have to make a regulation saying that an expired medical is only expired when USCIS says so on an RFE.

justvisiting,

I don't think new applicants would be a problem. Their I-485 would take around 4 months to process, by which time the COD would have retrogressed back to to the "true" COD. Any applicants beyond 01MAY10 would, by definition be new applicants anyway. For applicants who got a chance to file with a late PD, submitting an I-693 with the I-485 would essentially be a waste of money.

Sure, it's true that applicants do not have to wait for an RFE to send in an updated I-693. I think most will wait for an RFE, since USCIS strongly encourages it. By the time the Medical is received and the case gets to an adjudicator, the COD might have retrogressed back to the "true" COD anyway. I don't think it is any big deal. I'm not sure CO could extend the COD for more than 2 months and he can internally retrogress to the 3rd month COD in the second month if necessary. If the COD doesn't get pulled back in a timely fashion, then it would be 2012 all over again.

There's no compulsion to always have a valid I-693 at all times. It doesn't make the I-485 any less "bone fide" if it is missing or expired. An RFE can be issued for it in either case. An expired or missing I-693 just means the case cannot be approved until the deficiency is rectified. I don't see that a new regulation is required. It is covered in the policy manual already.