EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[skpanda]

Assuming an 18K pending demand/invenotry at the begining of FY2015 - Even if we get 8K approved for EB2I in FY2015, I would think/hope DOS would want to build inventory at the end of FY2015. I know it is wishful thinking (MY PD is Dec 2010).


On other note - I have not seen Demand data published in many months. Does any body know if that is gone?

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum Anuprab. I understand your frustration. Nobody knows CO's mind - but based purely on numbers, CO has enough inventory to finish FY2015. So as such, there is no critical need to do inventory generation until early FY2016. However, this does not mean that it can not happen. CO might be more comfortable keeping more than 1 year demand in inventory - and in that case he might do inventory generation. When and how much - we can only guess.

do you think there will be movement post May 1 2010 to build inventory? This is so frustrating as we missed the boat 3 yrs back by 2 days and now waiting to get current. I am not even expecting greencard but just want to be able to file 485. Is this too much to ask !!

[MATT2012]

Matt, I was praying for your optimistic prediction to come true just like it happened last year. I do check your excel sheet very often. Thanks.

Congratulations to all our members who are current and I wish Viz, Sportsfan and all others waiting, all the best for your speedy approval.

Kanmani,

I knew all along that it was a little difficult to reach that date, without over allocation. Though personally, I would have been more cheerful with you and few others getting current.

Even after the Sep bulletin, I am still confused about why those RFEs ? let time prove what is in store between now and the coming months, as no normal calculations, will not support such a movement in October or November. Technically, USCIS will have one year from RFE reply date to approve the cases.

I am hoping for majority of the cases getting cleared, at least that way there is a shorter queue for next FY. Trackitt being down most of time, reduces our visibility to approvals.

[imdeng]

Congratulations gcseeker - wish you all the best. Hope this Sept as good as green for you and your family.

Folks- I am a silent spectator of this forum for the past 2.5 years and this is my first post. I would be current in September. My PD is 04/09/09. Thanks to all the gurus for the accurate predictions. Now I am bracing myself for the roller coaster ride in September. Thanks again team...u guys are doing a awesome job.

[YTeleven]

Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)

I don't think so. There will be one more forward movement in October VB and then final retrogession in November VB and that's it for this CY.
If you see my previous posts back in june: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6953#post46953
I was assuming a conservative figure of 22k visa allocation for EB2-I in FY14. Looking at the current processing trends and considering the FY15 quota to be issued in Oct'14(as CO did last year) I still believe there is much scope for more forward movement in next VB.

[anuprab]

Thanks imdeng. We are all paying the price for being legal, aren't we? but I am glad its this way atleast we have peace of mind. I hope if the CO generates inventory beginning FY 2016 it would mean around next summer or around Oct 2015 right? He has to for the fiscal year 2016...just hoping to be current...that's all!

[wheeler234]

Gurus - A silent reader in this forum, my PD is Feb-5th 2008 and I applied last year in Sep-2013. Recently in July my case went in to a Security check process. I raised an SR and got the response - "however, your case has not cleared all required security checks at this time". Having waited soo long for the GC (Entered US in 2000), this response is really a de-motivating. What are my options at this point? Should I contact the Congressman and ask for help? or raise another SR. Please advice.

Wheeler

[Spectator]

So now we know - 01MAY09. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

[imdeng]

Between 01MAY09 and 01NOV09, there are 6258 cases as per the latest inventory. Last year we had ~600 trackitt approvals for EB2I in Oct/Nov - which is ~7800 considering a trackitt multiple of 13. So we are playing in the same ballpark.

Of course, the above does not include any inventory carryover from FY2014 and new porting demand that will continue to hit as long as dates are not retrogressed.

[qesehmk]

Gurus - A silent reader in this forum, my PD is Feb-5th 2008 and I applied last year in Sep-2013. Recently in July my case went in to a Security check process. I raised an SR and got the response - "however, your case has not cleared all required security checks at this time". Having waited soo long for the GC (Entered US in 2000), this response is really a de-motivating. What are my options at this point? Should I contact the Congressman and ask for help? or raise another SR. Please advice.

Wheeler

Wheeler - sorry to hear your story. Try the Senator (not a rep congressman) first. If that doesn't go anywhere you need a lawyer to help. I am sure there is a legal way to hold DoS / USCIS accountable.

[wheeler234]

Thanks for the response Q, I will contact the senator soon.

[imdeng]

The dagger into our collective hearts!

PS> *jk* of course. Rational mind knows you are right, but the wishful/hopeful mind can not help but argue for a better outcome.

I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

[vizcard]

Now that the Sep bulletin is out, I think now TSC will start considering the Aug bulletin cases

Well they haven't finished the July cases -- speaking purely about my own case!

[qesehmk]

Thanks for the response Q, I will contact the senator soon.

You are welcome wheeler.

Let me clarify why I said senator as opposed to rep.

In American democracy Senate has the role of oversight and hence a senator has better connections with various government departments and agencies.

House of reps is focused more on allocating money. So I am not sure how a rep can influence a case where FBI check is stuck. Of course individuals might differ. But my first instinct would be to trust a senator to help in such matter or at least get a real picture of why something may be stuck and what can be done about it.

[geterdone]

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 24th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2014 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2014 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,241

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2014 the per-country limit is 26,337. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,525.

The prorated 7% level in EB would be 10,517 split as 3,008 in each of EB1, EB2 & EB3 and 746/747 in each of EB4 & EB5.

USCIS were as late as ever in providing DOS with the information required to finally calculate the EB allocation.

[CleanSock]

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?

So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

[kd2008]

So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

Congrats to all those who got current!

In FY2012, CO decided to build demand when USCIS I-485 EB2-I inventory dipped to 9K (technically, should we consider EB2IC since they were lock step then?) and dates were 3 or 4 months of the last max value.

After using demand up to 01 MAY 09, EB2-I inventory would have approx. 18K to 19K left.

Assuming, same is the case this time, when might inventory build up happen? Would FY2015 SOFAD allow another (10K+porting +new filings) to be used up? So demand build up at the end of FY 2015 or early FY 2016 would be likely? I know its way too early, but I would like everybody's initial thoughts.

2nd half of FY 2015 would certainly be used to build demand for EB3ROW & EB2C. That is a given. May be even earlier.

[imdeng]

Dec 2008 is a little bit of an outlier at 1600, most months in latter half of 2008 until first quarter of 2009 are 1200-1300. Past that 2009 and 2010 is 1000-1200 with the low point in Sept of ~800+ IIRC. Even 1600 is on the low side in comparison to late 2007 and early 2008 though.

Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?

Thanks CleanSock.

It must have been a Freudian slip.

I've corrected the date in my original post.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan,

No need to be sorry. I knew this is coming and I have to be sorry for my husband who has been refreshing the bulletin page link for the first time ever,from yesterday, hoping to see his PD to get current.

[jimmys]

If USCIS thinks dates won't move beyond 01 MAY 2009 why did they send RFEs up to OCT/NOV 2009. Does it mean those people have to do the medicals again next summer if the current one expires? Pure insane. And,I firmly believe it won't be FIFO in approval. There always will be few lucky chaps and a few unfortunate ones. Let's check the trackitt.com once the date retrogresses to hear about unfortunate stories.

[imdeng]

Its fine Sports - the long odds were clear for a while. Like Kanmani, I am also more concerned about my spouse :-) - she is ready to leave her very stressful job the day we get our GC and there is more stability in our lives.

I am really sorry imdeng and kanmani you didn't get current! OTOH though, I think given everything, 1 May 2009 is really as best as they can achieve this year.

[Kanmani]

I know this kanmani...I have been through a lot of anxiety over the last 2 months and it's not over yet! It's not over until it is over for any of us.

I know that man. We are not one of the luckiest of guys who have everything go smoothly at the right time in their life, no struggle or whatsoever ! I used to ponder over it and even complain that God is so mean. My husband has a simple answer, god has something else so important in his store exclusively for us . So do to you sportsfan, don't worry everything will go just fine. All the best!

[almost]

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks