EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[tenyearsgone]

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.

since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days

Why is 29th not an option?

[Spectator]

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?

From the THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document:

Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand for numbers under these dates.

[imdeng]

Bacause VBs only use the four day-of-the-month cutoffs - 1st, 8th, 15th and 22nd of the month. For example - 22-JUN-2009 is a valid cut-off date for next VB - but 29-JUN-2009 is not. If it has to be later than 22-JUN-2009 then it will be 01-JUL-2009 - the next allowed cutoff date.

Update> See Spec's reply below for a much better explanation. Saw it after posting mine.

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?

[tenyearsgone]

@Spec and @imdeng .. thanks for the explanation.

PS: I just got text/email for RFEs for both primary and dependent. My theory is that as soon as I posted a message about the RFE on this forum, I got tagged and RFEd!!!. Given my Sept-2009 PD, I feel like it is a waste of money and life-units. Oh well...

[vedu]

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[vizcard]

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

[imdeng]

FWIW - 2009 demand is indeed less than 2008 demand - significantly so in fact. 2009 is the weakest demand year in recent past I think - and likely to be the weakest for some time since 2010+ has seen higher demand.

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[aquatican]

I was a bit worried to see the 'word of caution'. It could potentially mean that the 4 month advance till Jan 2009 would not be repeated in the September bulletin. This is going to be a close call. Lets hope we see Jul 2009 in the next bulletin.

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[ksur23]

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[aquatican]

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?

So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.

[qesehmk]

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

it must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months.

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[imdeng]

Usually no - we get spillover until Sept and dates go back starting Oct. However, last year dates stayed up for a couple months and a bunch of folks were issued visas then. There is some debate as to where those numbers came from. We can see a repeat of that again this year. Finish the spillover in Sept and consume some of the next year's numbers on Oct.

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?

[imdeng]

I am not sure it means anything at all. Its just risk-speak - covering both sides - does not preclude any possibility - just asks to not be too excited. The median interpretation should be in line with yours - there will be movement but perhaps, may be, kind of, not as much as this month.

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

[imdeng]

"retrogress in next several months" is as useless a prediction as any. We all know that is going to happen. Fragomen has always been on the pessimistic side of the world, as I guess most lawyers are. I wouldn't worry much about this PR.

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[vedu]

No, I am assuming that the partial amount of spillover they did not release until September last year with the confidence that it would be surely exhausted in the last month without wasting any visas may be SAME this year. The total amount of spillover may vary from year to year.

You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

[aquatican]

Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

[Kanmani]

With the 1st move upto covered 6860 applicants and 2nd move covered 6889*, I am of the opinion that there should be a pattern followed in moving dates and 3rd move CoD is also ready. Is there enough left out to cover another 6900 ?

*upto 31st Jan

[Kanmani]

Sports,

The Fragoman statement is nothing but the interpretation of comments from the visa bulletin . I think there should be a movement, how far is the billion dollar question.

[TeddyKoochu]

The Fragoman update is pretty bad...a real slap in our faces if true.

Looks like the number Gurus are going to have their way again. The predicted range (Nov 2008 - March 2009) is the one where the PD will land. It makes sense to make the large move in August and do a finetuning in September. I am betting this is happening because of massive and massive and even more massive porting.

If we end up at March 2009, the net movement over the past 3 years would be 20 months...not impressive given we have had 20K visas from FB and that the EB1A/B have been very hard to get thanks to Kazarian.

Why are they sending medical RFEs is anyone's guess. However from my end, I still haven't received one and I have read confirmed accounts of such cases on trackitt. Now, I am getting more and more convinced that not everyone will be asked to resubmit. To extend the same logic further, all the RFEs people in 2009 are receiving this year will be kept valid for more than 1 year and be used when their dates are current again.

I also think the date will hold until October. Good luck to all who are current. I am still hoping for some magic in September.

Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

[qesehmk]

So here is one thing to understand. The movement that happened so far - pretty much means all these folks will be greened this year as long as their cases are without any issues. However, the movement that happens in september is going to be larger than truly required. So not everybody should expect to get greened.

My original prediction was not about date movement. It was about getting greened. I am talking about people upto Mar 2009 to expect to get greened. January is already real now. So I wouldn't be ashamed if the March prediction turns bad.

Now based on the bulletin if the movement is 1-3 months then most of those folks should be greened. But if it is much more than that then the prediction is saying that people beyond March should keep their hopes low. I don't mean to dampen anybody's spirits. So i will only be happy to be proved wrong.

Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.

[qesehmk]

What a nice Surprise Teddy! Good to hear from u.

Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

[billikoot]

Q,

I think you have high level answered this already - but let us say in a scenario, we get June 2009 current and then we get retrogressed back to a date in 2008 within 2 months of that. What is the processing time for those that had temporarily become current in that 2-3 month time period?

On the USCIS website for processing, they tout that I-485 adjustment of status is 4 months - would it be a luck of draw on which cases with June 2009 PD become green based on factors like ND and RD, etc? And how long after the retrogression will they keep working on cases that had previously become current? For example, would a June 2009 case hear about being green in lets say January 2015?

I ask this shamelessly, because I am on the borderline of all your predictions and this thing is giving me grey hair.

[Spectator]

There are threads for both:

FY2014 RFE

and

I-693 Medical Examination Policy Change

discussions.

Please post in the appropriate thread if your post is not Calculation related.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I think you have high level answered this already - but let us say in a scenario, we get June 2009 current and then we get retrogressed back to a date in 2008 within 2 months of that. What is the processing time for those that had temporarily become current in that 2-3 month time period?

On the USCIS website for processing, they tout that I-485 adjustment of status is 4 months - would it be a luck of draw on which cases with June 2009 PD become green based on factors like ND and RD, etc? And how long after the retrogression will they keep working on cases that had previously become current? For example, would a June 2009 case hear about being green in lets say January 2015?

I ask this shamelessly, because I am on the borderline of all your predictions and this thing is giving me grey hair.

billi - first please understand my prediction can be wrong. What I am saying is i think even if date moves to Jun or Jul people beyond Mar have much less chance of getting a GC immediately. Lets say I am 100% correct in my prediction and there is somebody in April who is current but not lucky enough to get a GC this year - what happens to him?

I think what's going to happen is come oct and nov these people will get their GCs. Why? Because for CO to even figure out when to retrogress dates he needs data. When does data start to flow to him ? Only in mid or late october. Too bad ... by that time he has already not moved the dates. So I will say there is a good chance he might give away upto 3K visas for EB2I in Oct and Nov itself because the dates will still be current. And then he retrogresses in December.

So again assuming I am 100% on Mark on March ... then do the math and see how far those 3K will take dates for EB2I. Probably 2 months.

Hope this helps! I know you are looking for June. So I hope I am wrong and/or you get lucky!

[Kanmani]

Q,

I have a doubt.

Do you think the approvals would be batch after batch, just like DoS moved dates, so that the 3rd batch might stumble near March 2009, if in case the CoD for September is assumed to be in July'09 ?