EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

I know some people will be interested in this.

Both from the last published USCIS data and from Trackitt data, the split between NSC and TSC for EB cases is approx. 40 : 60.

That was also the ratio of approvals for EB2-I during October/November 2013.

Despite TSC slow start, they will catch up.

[qesehmk]

So here I am going to be thinking loud - not that I know anything with any certainty.

The question - will the dates really move into 2009 Oct?

I think that if the backlog that got cleared this year was about Jun 2008 to lets say March 2009 (if that!) then that's 9 months worth movement.

So realistically we can expect a similar movement in 2015 (actually a bit less given that ROW PERM/140 approvals are kind of artificially held back at this time.

Thus adding 9 months to Mar 2009 gives us Dec 2009.

The question is - going into next year does CO have enough cases on his hand that he doesn't have to do a last minute maneuver? I think the answer is yes. The last time EB2I dates were current was as high as May 2010 (if my memory serves me correct).

So IMHO there is sufficient inventory including some buffer that CO has that he doesn't have to move the dates forward in fear of lack of EB2I demand.

However if CO just wants to be nice to EB2I then he can and he will move the dates to Oct 2009 or even beyond! Into 2011. Why not?

So long story short - if dates move beyond Jun 2009 - EB2I folks owe CO a thank you note because he would be doing it when not really necessary from his standpoint.

[Spectator]

Q,

Nice to hear your mid range thoughts.

Also thinking out loud - it's a long way away yet and much can change.

So here I am going to be thinking loud - not that I know anything with any certainty.

The question - will the dates really move into 2009 Oct?

I think that if the backlog that got cleared this year was about Jun 2008 to lets say March 2009 (if that!) then that's 9 months worth movement.

I would agree. Wherever the actual final Cut Off Date lands the net clearance will do well to reach March 2009.

So realistically we can expect a similar movement in 2010 (actually a bit less given that ROW PERM/140 approvals are kind of artificially held back at this time.

Thus adding 9 months to Mar 2009 gives us Dec 2009.

I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.

The question is - going into next year does CO have enough cases on his hand that he doesn't have to do a last minute maneuver? I think the answer is yes. The last time EB2I dates were current was as high as May 2010 (if my memory serves me correct).

So IMHO there is sufficient inventory including some buffer that CO has that he doesn't have to move the dates forward in fear of lack of EB2I demand.

I agree. he will have a sizable number of pending cases left at the end of FY2015.

However if CO just wants to be nice to EB2I then he can and he will move the dates to Oct 2009 or even beyond! Into 2011. Why not?

To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

All the other cases are preadjudicated and would only need an updated I-693 / EVL in most cases to be approvable. I think the number will be so large, it will preclude any discretion he might have to advance the dates.

Moving the dates beyond available visas also means that people with late PDs will get approved at the expense of earlier PDs. Nobody likes that situation.

So long story short - if dates move beyond Jun 2009 - EB2I folks owe CO a thank you note because he would be doing it when not really necessary from his standpoint.

Again, I totally agree.

[qesehmk]

Q,


I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.

Yes indeed 2015. I don't know why I said 2010!

Indeed 2015 could be worse than 2014. And that's why I am saying that even if you assume 2015 will be as good as 2014 - even then CO doesn't need to move dates to create future demand. He already has enough in his pipeline.

To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

Agree. But I was talking about moving dates temporarily to generate demand - which I said is not necessary because he already has all the demand he needs. So then if he moves the dates forward beyond Jun 2009 then he is being nice to EB2I IMHO !!

[Spectator]

Q,

Got you.

The mention of 2011 seemed a little excessive. Moving beyond April 2010 was the specific point I was addressing. I think even moving to October 2009 would be more than CO being nice.

[qesehmk]

Q,

Got you.

The mention of 2011 seemed a little excessive. Moving beyond April 2010 was the specific point I was addressing. I think even moving to October 2009 would be more than CO being nice.

Spec - The reason I mentioned 2011 is because May 2010 is what we already touched in the past. So any date movement between Jun 2009 - May 2010 is unnecessary I think - it doesn't really serve any purpose other than for folks who missed the boat.

Thus any date movement beyond 2010 May - if at all done - will be done to take in more demand and/or on humanitarian grounds to give these guys some relief in terms of EAD and what not. In that case why limit to 1-2-3 months. Then I would expect CO to go all the way at least into 2011 if not beyond.

That was my rationale. But as I said technically speaking CO has no need to move dates at all beyond even Jun 2009.

[Spectator]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

[qesehmk]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

Don't disagree! True.

[skpanda]

Too bad... with a Dec 2010 PD.. i was hoping that I will get to file around Sept/Oct 2015 (Late FY2015 or Early FY2016). Looks like it is going to be Summer 2016 (Late FY 2016) at the earliest.

Neways.. lets see how it works out!!

Fingers crossed!

Q,

Nice to hear your mid range thoughts.

Also thinking out loud - it's a long way away yet and much can change.


I would agree. Wherever the actual final Cut Off Date lands the net clearance will do well to reach March 2009.


I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.


I agree. he will have a sizable number of pending cases left at the end of FY2015.


To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

All the other cases are preadjudicated and would only need an updated I-693 / EVL in most cases to be approvable. I think the number will be so large, it will preclude any discretion he might have to advance the dates.

Moving the dates beyond available visas also means that people with late PDs will get approved at the expense of earlier PDs. Nobody likes that situation.


Again, I totally agree.

[dec2010]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.

[Spectator]

Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.

dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

[Spectator]

I've added stats for approvals per day and breakdown by Service Center for the Trackitt EB2-I July approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

[SONU77]

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.

Post #2 in this thread.

[dec2010]

dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

thanks Spec. Clearly, I had missed that from your post.

[MeraGC1]

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

[vizcard]

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

[tatikonda]

Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

Thanks Viz, seeing your reply.. I wanted to know one thing whcih I was wondering for long time ..
Employers making a contract to stay 2 years after getting Green Card, is it legal ??

[Kanmani]

August 2014 Bulletin is out.

EB2I CoD -22 jan 2009

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...gust-2014.html

[eb2mar2008]

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


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Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

[Kanmani]

From August 2014 Bulletin...

"D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS.

The China-mainland born Employment Third and Third Other Workers cut-off dates have advanced for the month of August, and could do so again for September. There are two reasons for this advance after the retrogression of the cut-off date earlier this summer: 1) The heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly (years) earlier than the previous cut-off date has declined during the past two months, and 2) declining number use in the Family preferences during May and June, combined with updated estimates of such number use through the end of the fiscal year, has resulted in availability of several hundred numbers for use in the China-mainland born Employment Third preference..

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly."

[qesehmk]

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


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Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

[bieber]

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

It's interesting they chose 22nd. I wonder if it has anything to do with the calculation of exact spillover and september will be cushion to adjust little bit.

I expected they move to 1st of (Jan to Jun) 2009.

Kanmani, I saw that you received RFE, congrats hope the dates will go beyond your PD in september

[eb2mar2008]

Yes it does...thank you for the detailed response.

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

[imdeng]

So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.