Very true! Lawyers like to play it safe and it is easy to understand why. After all there job is to make sure everything gets filed the right wayOriginally Posted by qesehmk
Very true! Lawyers like to play it safe and it is easy to understand why. After all there job is to make sure everything gets filed the right way
You can be assured of having GC by October, good luck new guy!
Without a doubt - EB2 is going to get thrown back in time come Dec 2014.
This has become quite a ritual now - A) retro EB2 to ridiculous time period and B) come July move them ahead to some sensible time period.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Murthy is always uber conservative/cautious, I believe in the data on this forum, Q hit it right on the mark last year with dates moving to June 2008.
Thanks Q, yeah, I just hope I can make it through this year along with some of the others in the forum who have dates in the latter half of 2008
I was hoping to get GC this year, but I am preparing to wait for one more year. This is getting crazy. It would be be 7 years from PD next year.
PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I
As far as EB2 is concerned - Most 2008 folks should get through this cycle. PD2008 - unless your case has some issues - I would be really surprised if you don't get a GC this year.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I hope it's sooner rather than later this fiscal year. The most challenging thing about being on EAD is explaining it to some recruiters who are trying to fill out a form. Are u on H1 or Green Card ....uh... Neither
I hear you Vizcard, same here, I guess EAD/AP is a good thing to have though even if it takes a while to explain
June VB is out. As expected no changes to EB2I. One surprise EB3 China went back to 2006.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...june-2014.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/l...
EB2-India 15-Nov-2004
EB3-India 15-Oct-2003
No movement for EB2-India
EB3 - ROW retrogressed to April 01 2011 from Oct 2012
EB3- China has retrogressed to 01 Oct 2006
I think Section D is quite interesting and illuminating.
Notice the phrase for EB3 "has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category". That confirms what I suspected - that EB3-ROW already have fairly high approvals to date and far ahead of the usual number for this point in the year.D. RETROGRESSION OF JUNE CUT-OFF DATES
WORLDWIDE F2A:
The cut-off date for the Family F2A category was advanced at a very rapid pace during fiscal year 2013 in an effort to generate demand to use all numbers available under the annual limit. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand being received during the past seven months. This has required the retrogression of the Family F2A cut-off date for June in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.
MEXICO F2A:
Despite a previous retrogression, the level of demand has remained excessive, resulting in a further retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the annual limit.
Employment Third, and Third Other Workers:
The unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the Worldwide, China, and Mexico cut-off dates for the month of June.
Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions.
Such severe retrogression of EB3-China is slightly surprising, but it probably speaks volumes for the number of EB2-China applicants who have reverse ported. A Cut Off Date of 01OCT06 (6 year retrogression) is the equivalent of saying it is Unavailable and that China have reached the 7% limit within EB3. EB3-China Other Workers has retrogressed 9 years 9 months to 01JAN03, which is now earlier than that for EB3-India.
On the Family Based side, as promised, F2A WW have retrogressed (1 year 4 months) and F2A Mexico have retrogressed a further 1 year 1 month.
CO mentioned that FB2B demand was a little low, so he has moved that forward 3 months for F2B WW and even 2 1/2 months for F2B Mexico (although F2B-M still remains retrogressed compared to the start of the FY). FB2B WW has moved forward 1 year 6 weeks during FY2014 to date.
It might be taken as evidence that CO is determined not to waste FB visas this year.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec
I strongly suspect that EB3C retrogression is a technical retrogression just like EB2I where the porting does exceed the country quota but not by so much but enough to the point where retrogression is justified. Come Q4 that retrogression should go away - except for EB3C this year since EB3ROW is unlikely to yield anything this year. But next year that retrogression will certainly vanish.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q and Spec,
Since lot of China applicants have reverse ported from Eb2 to Eb3 it means that number of Eb2 China people in the pipeline must have reduced somewhat. Correct?
Is this a good sign meaning instead of dates moving to March 1, 2009 for Eb2 India (as per popular prediction) can it move by another 3-4 months (say for example June 1, 2009?
Q,
I'm not sure what you mean by technical retrogression. EB3-C do not appear to have any more visas available under this year's allocation (or extremely few). Note that CO has said number use is approaching the annual limit, not demand. EB3-P will still consume significant numbers if their COD continues to advance.
The same with EB3-WW - the demand was going to be too great for the remaining visas, if left at last months COD.
Next FY, a new allocation will be available and the COD will jump accordingly. In both cases, it is saying that visa allocation has been so high that gradual progression (or even stagnation) of the COD is not possible.
It is entirely different to EB2-I IMO (which is technical retrogression), because that that is caused by the wait for a determination of the number of spare visas that will be available from other Categories and Countries within EB2 - that is not a consideration for EB3, since they receive no spillover. EB3 will have a fixed number of about 43k this FY and the comment suggests the majority of those have already been used.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
By technical I mean not realistic given that is not where the wall of demand for that category exists.
So yes Indeed technically 2006 is where EB3C reached its cap this year. But the demand wall of EB3C perhaps is not there. Same with EB2I. Their demand wall is around aug 2008 right now. In other words any spillover start eating at that wall but then come Oct/Nov 2014 the technical retrogression will kick in and EB2I will go back to stone ages!
p.s. For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior (I meant next year - not this year).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps we just look at (or express) it differently.
The demand wall of EB3C for FY2014 has been reached. I agree the exact COD would be later than 2006 (and earlier than 2012), but it is unknowable at present. The opening date for FY2015 will say something about where it was. As I said previously, I think a COD of 2006 is just a kind way of saying Unavailable.
If by "For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior." you mean that you believe EB3-C will receive extra visa numbers from EB3-ROW/M at the end of the FY, I disagree. If that were going to be the case, EB3-ROW/M would not have been retrogressed. That says that EB3-ROW/M will reach their full allocation for FY2014 within the new COD. There certainly appear to be enough pending cases to do so.
In any case, even if there were spare visas, they would have to go to EB3-I, who would have the earliest PD of Countries that had reached the 7% limit. That will also be true for several years to come, until both EB3-I and EB3-P reach the same "true" COD as EB3-C.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
venkat,
It's likely that the majority of reverse porting occurred for applicants who were not current (or likely to be current this FY) under EB2-C.
If there were those that would have been current under EB2-C this year, it just allows the EB2-C Cut Off Date to progress further for the 3k allocation they have and allows somewhat faster progression of EB2-C dates in future years.
It does not alter the number of spare visas available to EB2-I in any way, since EB2-C will not use any of the spillover available. EB2-C will finish FY2014 at a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I can reach, even with all the spillover visa numbers.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I haven't been paying much attention to the FB side of things. Do we have any FB to EB spillover in FY14 (like last year)? I know early in the FY, there were some estimates but I don't know what happened since.
vizcard,
10k has been mentioned already http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf
It should end up at slightly over 10.2k. FB used 10,247 less than their allocation last year. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...OS-Visa-Report
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - I agree that right now it is not knowable. So what I am saying is just a guess!
As per EB3ROW being savior -- I was only talking about next year - not this. And thanks for pointing out that EB3I is where most of those numbers may go. So even next EB3C may stay retrogressed but certainly not at 2006.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes.
I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes.
I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.
Whats the realistic hope for the EB2I Dates to be moved this FY Year.
I don't know what you mean "Cross Purposes".
But I didn't find any major disagreeable things here. So we are good - I guess
I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes.
I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q<I don't know what you mean "Cross Purposes".
But I didn't find any major disagreeable things here. So we are good - I guess
I don't think it is worth prolonging the conversation over what amounts to nothing.
No need to guess - we are good (at least I hope so!)
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)
Posting Permissions
