EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

Q,

No problem. I just wanted to let you know in case it was affecting other people as well.

I'm glad you were able to identify the cause and rectify it.

It's all working correctly for me now.

Thanks for the swift resolution.

When CO says that EB5 may retrogress then we can be sure that no SO from EB5. In fact EB4 spillover might be consumed by EB5. My take, we get 3k from EB4 as some of the EB4 spillover will be consumed by EB5.
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EB1 would yield some spillover but the usage is higher than previous year. Last year EB1 used 40k and the remaining (most of the excess from FB) came to EB2. Any takes on the number... may be we get 1k from EB1.
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I somehow feel that CO has not factored in the low PERM approvals. Nobody is sure about the EB2WW numbers. In fact the recent surge in PERM certifications makes this very very dynamic. My take would be that EB2WW would consume 27k and remaining comes to EB2I. We can expect 10k (7k + 3k excess from FB). Any opinions ?
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EB2I might get 3k+1k+10k = 14k spillover. (17.5k total)
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With 6k already consumed, we might have 11.5k remaining. That would be good to clear demand until mid Dec 2008. It depends on CO as to where he puts the dates at.
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My gut feeling Jan-Feb 2009
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[Spectator]

In fact EB4 spillover might be consumed by EB5.

There is no provision in law for EB5 to use spare visas from EB4.

(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

Spare visas from EB4 (and EB5) Fall Up directly to EB1.

(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

[YTeleven]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804

above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?

Post CO's comments with AILA. Still I believe EB2-I will get the sufficient no of visas to move the PDs into CY2009.
Here is updated version of my document:

[Spectator]

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year. Also, it is too early in the fiscal year to be able to determine how many unused EB-1 visa numbers there will be to “drop down” into the EB-2 category.

The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.

EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.

I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

No surprise here. I don’t think any one believes EB2-ROW will use anywhere near their allocation this year. The main question would be how much Fall Across from EB2-ROW might be available to EB2-India.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category has seen increased demand over the past few months (due to the significant movements) and it is unlikely that there will be forward movement in the short term. In fact, if demand continues at its current pace, there may be a retrogression as early as June 2014. Retrogression is possible for the last quarter of fiscal year 2014 (Jul-Sep 2014) and this is a call for all EB-3 ROW applicants who are current to file their I-485s as soon as possible.

This is no surprise to me and I have previously forecast that retrogression may be necessary for EB3-ROW.

EB-3 China. As a result of many EB-2 China applicants “downgrading” to EB-3 it is expected that EB-3 China will see some retrogression over the next month or two.

As it says, use by EB2-China who are downgrading has increased demand for EB3-China. In addition, no individual Country can have a Cut Off Date ahead of the Worldwide date for ROW. If EB3-ROW retrogress, EB3-China must also retrogress to that date.

What this means for EB3-India, is that there is virtually no chance of spare Fall Across visas in EB3. EB3-India will move very slowly for the remainder of the FY.

EB-5 China. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is high and a cutoff date may be introduced in August or September. Retrogression for EB-5 China is “inevitable” given the high number of EB-5 pending applications for Chinese nationals.

Should retrogression of EB5-China be necessary, it means EB5 will use their entire 10.6k allocation and no Fall Up to EB1 will be available.

CO has mentioned the possibility before and it has not been necessary to date. That may still be the case this year as well.

As of November 1, 2013, State Dept. provided the following statistical information regarding active applications at the National Visa Center - total 4,748:

• 966 cases have priority dates in 2011 (20.35%);
• 2,969 cases have priority dates in 2012 (62.53%); and
• 813 cases have priority dates in 2013 (17.12%).

EB-2 India. This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments – EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin. This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).

I note no other article has mentioned the 5,000 figure, so I take that with a very large pinch of salt. In fact, I would say it appears erroneous.

I will say that January 1, 2008 seems an extraordinarily early Cut off Date to be mentioning, even for someone as conservative as CO. I do wonder whether there is a misunderstanding from the AILA representatives present.

The previous update to this document (AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Nov. 27, 2013) in November 2013 mentioned a return to around December 2008 in August/September 2014.

Even increased EB1 use, allied to complete use of the EB5 allocation, would not be sufficient to move the dates back that far (Jan 2008) in my opinion.

Another variable would be porting cases. Only those who already have an I-485 pending stand any chance of approval in an August /September time frame. That really means:

a) Cases with a PD of July 2007 or earlier who have interfiled since dates retrogressed until they move forward again.
b) New cases submitted up to November 2013 when dates were last current but who were not approved in the last window.

Another variable is EB2-WW use. Unless, a very special effort is made to process PERM certified cases beyond March 2014 through to I-485 approval, it is difficult to see how the date could go back that far.

Finally, there is the question of EB2-I use to date. Opinions vary, but I use a more aggressive figure than most.

I don’t believe I indulge in wishful thinking – in fact I tend to err on the pessimistic side compared to most other people.

Even I would say a fairly late 2008 Cut Off Date is far more likely, even in a poor scenario.

[krishn]

what could be the EB3 row yearly total from 2009 to 2012(or till 2013 august) ?

is it possible to subtract yearly eb2row approvals from perm approvals and arrive at approximate eb3-ROW yearly totals ?
looking at the eb2 row yearly approvals and perm approvals for last 5 years, the eb3row total is < 30k from 2k9 to now, is my guesstimate or am way too off ?

[suninphx]

Thanks Spec!

[helooo]

The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.

EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.

I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.



No surprise here. I don’t think any one believes EB2-ROW will use anywhere near their allocation this year. The main question would be how much Fall Across from EB2-ROW might be available to EB2-India.



This is no surprise to me and I have previously forecast that retrogression may be necessary for EB3-ROW.



As it says, use by EB2-China who are downgrading has increased demand for EB3-China. In addition, no individual Country can have a Cut Off Date ahead of the Worldwide date for ROW. If EB3-ROW retrogress, EB3-China must also retrogress to that date.

What this means for EB3-India, is that there is virtually no chance of spare Fall Across visas in EB3. EB3-India will move very slowly for the remainder of the FY.



Should retrogression of EB5-China be necessary, it means EB5 will use their entire 10.6k allocation and no Fall Up to EB1 will be available.

CO has mentioned the possibility before and it has not been necessary to date. That may still be the case this year as well.

As of November 1, 2013, State Dept. provided the following statistical information regarding active applications at the National Visa Center - total 4,748:

• 966 cases have priority dates in 2011 (20.35%);
• 2,969 cases have priority dates in 2012 (62.53%); and
• 813 cases have priority dates in 2013 (17.12%).



I note no other article has mentioned the 5,000 figure, so I take that with a very large pinch of salt. In fact, I would say it appears erroneous.

I will say that January 1, 2008 seems an extraordinarily early Cut off Date to be mentioning, even for someone as conservative as CO. I do wonder whether there is a misunderstanding from the AILA representatives present.

The previous update to this document (AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Nov. 27, 2013) in November 2013 mentioned a return to around December 2008 in August/September 2014.

Even increased EB1 use, allied to complete use of the EB5 allocation, would not be sufficient to move the dates back that far (Jan 2008) in my opinion.

Another variable would be porting cases. Only those who already have an I-485 pending stand any chance of approval in an August /September time frame. That really means:

a) Cases with a PD of July 2007 or earlier who have interfiled since dates retrogressed until they move forward again.
b) New cases submitted up to November 2013 when dates were last current but who were not approved in the last window.

Another variable is EB2-WW use. Unless, a very special effort is made to process PERM certified cases beyond March 2014 through to I-485 approval, it is difficult to see how the date could go back that far.

Finally, there is the question of EB2-I use to date. Opinions vary, but I use a more aggressive figure than most.

I don’t believe I indulge in wishful thinking – in fact I tend to err on the pessimistic side compared to most other people.

Even I would say a fairly late 2008 Cut Off Date is far more likely, even in a poor scenario.

Thank You Spec!If you predict late 2008 then it should move around Jan 2009 as you are the most Conservative. AILA might have misunderstood what CO said.Is there any other way to communicate with CO and present him some real time nos?

[Jagan01]

There is no provision in law for EB5 to use spare visas from EB4.

Spare visas from EB4 (and EB5) Fall Up directly to EB1.

Spec,

Thanks for the information. Before posting I was not clear about this. I thought of asking the question but then assumed that EB4 spillover will go to EB5. Thanks again.

[civilengineer]

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!

I was unable to get to the threads right after I upgraded to Firefox 29 and I thought it might have been Firefox causing the issue. They are working now with Firefox 29.

[Spectator]

Apologies for the off topic post.

I was unable to get to the threads right after I upgraded to Firefox 29 and I thought it might have been Firefox causing the issue. They are working now with Firefox 29.

civilengineer,

I too upgraded to Firefox 29 last night.

I thought I would have to revert to 28 since I am not a fan of what they have done with Australis. To my personal taste, they couldn't have made it more ugly and I lost functionality by usability.

Fortunately, I had the Classic Theme Restorer Add On installed within 5 minutes and all is good again.

[venkat]

Spec, Do you think the fact that companies like TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) who in their history never processed Green Cards have started processing EB1 for their more senior folks have any effect on overall EB1 usage. I've 3 friends in TCS and all of them got theirs GCs in EB1 category in the last 1 month or so. My guess is approximately 2000-3000 TCS people will get it before September 30th.

Hope this doesn't impact people with PDs till Q1 2009.

The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.

EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.

I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.
.

[Spectator]

Spec, Do you think the fact that companies like TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) who in their history never processed Green Cards have started processing EB1 for their more senior folks have any effect on overall EB1 usage. I've 3 friends in TCS and all of them got theirs GCs in EB1 category in the last 1 month or so. My guess is approximately 2000-3000 TCS people will get it before September 30th.

Hope this doesn't impact people with PDs till Q1 2009.

I do not doubt that there will be increased EB1 use this year.

The question is how much this might be.

USCIS do not release information, which leaves Trackitt as the only real source of information.

However, this is unreliable when looking at EB1 as a whole. About 85% (90% for EB1C) of EB1 approvals on Trackitt are for people with Indian Chargeability and all the discussion seems to focus on increased use by Indian MNC. The numbers on Trackitt for other Countries are far too small to draw similar inferences.

EB1-India only represents about 25% (which might rise towards 30%) of total EB1 approvals.

In FY2012, 57.25% of primary approvals were for EB1C according to DHS figures. Spreading dependents at the same % and using the same % for India in FY2013 would mean about 5.5k EB1 approvals for India in FY2013 were for EB1C out of 9.6k total.

Even a very large % increase in EB1C-India approvals in FY2014 only amounts to a few thousand.

Besides that, EB1 has seen "lumpy" approval patterns before and the increased use in the first half of the year may not be sustained. I suspect it will stay somewhat elevated due to the slow processing at the Service Centers.

[YTeleven]

I do not doubt that there will be increased EB1 use this year.

The question is how much this might be.

USCIS do not release information, which leaves Trackitt as the only real source of information.

However, this is unreliable when looking at EB1 as a whole. About 85% (90% for EB1C) of EB1 approvals on Trackitt are for people with Indian Chargeability and all the discussion seems to focus on increased use by Indian MNC. The numbers on Trackitt for other Countries are far too small to draw similar inferences.

EB1-India only represents about 25% (which might rise towards 30%) of total EB1 approvals.

In FY2012, 57.25% of primary approvals were for EB1C according to DHS figures. Spreading dependents at the same % and using the same % for India in FY2013 would mean about 5.5k EB1 approvals for India in FY2013 were for EB1C out of 9.6k total.

Even a very large % increase in EB1C-India approvals in FY2014 only amounts to a few thousand.

Besides that, EB1 has seen "lumpy" approval patterns before and the increased use in the first half of the year may not be sustained. I suspect it will stay somewhat elevated due to the slow processing at the Service Centers.

Spec,

I've simulated the worst case scenario of NO SO from EB1 for FY14 due to heavy consumptionof EB1C visas by India and still ended up with enough visas for EB2-I to move the PDs to Jan'09.
The key here was the low EB2-ROW demand which was with in the reasonable limits.

Please comment on this document:

[krishn]

what could be the EB3 row yearly total from 2009 to 2012(or till 2013 august) ?

is it possible to subtract yearly eb2row approvals from perm approvals and arrive at approximate eb3-ROW yearly totals ?
looking at the eb2 row yearly approvals and perm approvals for last 5 years, the eb3row total is < 30k from 2k9 to now, is my guesstimate or am way too off ?

Guru's,

I have pulled in perm row approval numbers from data from << http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations >>

The EB2 row approval numbers from << http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...l-reports.html >>

can we guesstimate how many eb3 row I-485 applications could be filed between 2008 - 2013 ??


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

EB2 Row Approvals 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849


EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849

[Spectator]

Spec,

I've simulated the worst case scenario of NO SO from EB1 for FY14 due to heavy consumption of EB1C visas by India and still ended up with enough visas for EB2-I to move the PDs to Jan'09.
The key here was the low EB2-ROW demand which was with in the reasonable limits.

Please comment on this document:

YT,

Based on your figures, I would come to a Cut off Date slightly earlier than you for 17k available to EB2-I, even if I allow a contingency when setting the Cut Off Date. Primarily, I suspect that is because of different assumptions made elsewhere on approvals to date and further porting approvals to come. I can therefore understand how you reached a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09.

At 22.5k, I would say that is maybe at the lower end of EB2-WW possibilities (although not inconceivably so) if you want to look at a very worst case scenario.

[bzabza]

Gurus,

I am thinking for a job move. Any suggestions? My PD is July-21-2008.

Appreciate your inputs.

[Spectator]

The All Forms and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) data for Q1 FY2014 have been published.

On an unrelated note, DOL certified 6,833 PERM applications in April 2014, continuing their increased pace in recent months.

FY2014 PERM Certifications

October --- 1,422
November -- 3,307
December -- 4,343
January --- 4,866
February -- 4,881
March ----- 7,381
April ----- 6,833

Total ---- 33,033

This compares to 35,202 certifications for the whole of FY2013.

[sairam09]

Spec,

Does this help you to predict more accurate? Appreciate your inputs!.

[shreyasai2004]

Spec,

Does this help you to predict more accurate? Appreciate your inputs!.

Did any one saw murthy.com prediction is FY 2014 EB2 I is Jan 2008.
http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/off...ment-for-fy14/

my PD is July 29th 2008 so I need to wait for another year or 2????

[sairam09]

Murthy saying is totally different from other firms have posted as indicated by Spec in previous page.

[newguy]

Hi Gurus,

There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanks

[qesehmk]

DOS predictions are always very conservative. Lawyers' predictions are not really predictions - generally they repeat what DOS tells them.

There are lots of predictions around - some bullish some bearish. My advice - if any - on whom to follow - would be to look for some rationale and consistency. While internet gives us access to information - it also gives access to junk information. So it is worthwhile to not just read prediction but also try to understand the rationale behind it.

Hi Gurus,

There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanks

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,

There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanks

newguy,

I understand people's anxiety.

Other than when CO said he hoped to return Cut Off Dates to 2010 (for which he was crucified later), generally he tends to under promise and over deliver.

Of course there is a chance that we are unaware of an important piece of information that CO has.

At the same time, CO does not have all the information he requires either. 85-90% of EB cases are processed by USCIS, so he is reliant on them for information.

CO has regularly bemoaned the lack of information on future demand from USCIS. In particular, he has mentioned several times that USCIS are unable to provide information on future demand from those upgrading from EB3 to EB2. He only sees that demand when USCIS approve the case.

In the past, USCIS has provided information to DOS that was just plain wrong, such as when they suggested EB1 approvals in FY2012 would remain low and that there was little demand from EB2-IC as the Cut off Dates moved forward. That led to over allocation of visa numbers to EB2-IC and retrogression of EB2-WW in FY2012.

It is a fact that EB2-ROW PERM certifications have been lower than normal in the period that should supply I-485 approvals this FY. The only danger would be very quick processing of the I-485 by USCIS combined with a very large increase in PP of the I-140. CO can see high EB1 and EB5 use at present and uncertain EB2-ROW use - I think he wants to keep his options open and not disappoint people by making promises he can't keep.

My take is that the statements can be taken as very generic in nature, so much so that they really mean nothing. I certainly hope that is the case.

[sairam09]

Makes sense Q, Your advice is awesome!

[triplet]

Do we expect retrogression for EB2 to mimic last year? Will we see a movement forward in the August bulletin and then retrogression in December? If that's the case then there should be ample time to approve pending applications. (Even if revised medicals are requested or RFE for birth certificates etc.)