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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

  1. #3026
    Viz this is an important time in your life. It looks like you should go ahead and do the switch. Congrats again. How old is the little one now?
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  2. #3027
    Congrats Viz on your child.

    The most important lawyer to get your opinion would be the one in your proposed new job (hopefully they have an immigration attorney/team). Because in the unfortunate case of any RFE he would be the one who will be representing the case. I would suggest take the offer but inform the HR that you want to personally talk to the immigration lawyer to clarify few things. This way you know for sure.

    I'll tell you 9 out 10 will be OK with your scenario. All the Best!!!



    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.

  3. #3028
    @ Viz
    Exactly my situation last year. I was in a similar dilemma all I did was PM Q and MAtt2012 got their views and made a switch didnt bother filing AC 21 since I didnt want to send any notifications to USCIS without being asked for it. Meanwhile my H1B was cancelled ( I made the switch on EAD) and I got a H1B revoke letter from USCIS . I was 100 % sure that I would get an RFE on my current employment status but nothing happened and I got my GC without any issues on Sep 12th 2013 . So I would suggest you make the switch ( I remember Q bhai's words to me " We are in this country for a better life and better career opportunities - That is priority everything else secondary"

  4. #3029
    Vizcard - Congratulations on the baby and the job offer. I will chime in with the others - you should definitely take up the offer. Right now is as good a time as any. As Q said, if you wait then you would want to wait for 6 months at least post-GC as well - so do it now. I am familiar with travel demands of your industry - I am sure that you will find your new job much more compatible with the demands of taking care of the new baby.

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Quick question for the forum. I think I know the answer but I'd like to tap the collective wisdom of the members here.

    I work in management consulting for a Big 4 company. I have an opportunity come my way from a large investment bank to do essentially the same work but internally (i.e. an internal consultant). How would this affect my GC given the job description requirements?

    My PD is Aug 2008 so I'm a little skittish about making drastic moves but this is in that gray area.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  5. #3030
    Perm data for 2nd Quarter 2014 is available now ......http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...cedata.cfm#dis

  6. #3031
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Perm data for 2nd Quarter 2014 is available now ......http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...cedata.cfm#dis
    The PERM Fact Sheet for Q2 FY2014 was also released http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q2.pdf

    I found a few test records in the disclosure data, which is pretty unprofessional IMO. I have removed them for my analysis.

    All the PERM data posts in FACTS & DATA have been updated to reflect the Q2 FY2014 figures.

    The numbers and breakdown for Q2 were:

    CHINA -------- 1,189 --- 6.94%
    INDIA -------- 9,456 -- 55.21%
    MEXICO --------- 322 --- 1.88%
    PHILIPPINES ---- 474 --- 2.77%
    ROW ---------- 5,687 -- 33.20%
    Grand Total - 17,128 - 100.00%


    The breakdown for Q1 was:

    CHINA ---------- 642 --- 7.08%
    INDIA -------- 5,083 -- 56.03%
    MEXICO --------- 281 --- 3.10%
    PHILIPPINES ---- 210 --- 2.31%
    ROW ---------- 2,856 -- 31.48%
    Grand Total -- 9,072 - 100.00%
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #3032
    This could be a double whammy for India. PERM speeds up and the percentage I+C decreases ( 62%). If I remember correctly it was 65% in Q1 also which means in Q2 it was ~ 60%


    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The PERM Fact Sheet for Q2 FY2014 was also released http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q2.pdf

    I found a few test records in the disclosure data, which is pretty unprofessional IMO. I have removed them for my analysis.

    All the PERM data posts in FACTS & DATA have been updated to reflect the Q2 FY2014 figures.

  8. #3033
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    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Vizcard - Congratulations on the baby and the job offer. I will chime in with the others - you should definitely take up the offer. Right now is as good a time as any. As Q said, if you wait then you would want to wait for 6 months at least post-GC as well - so do it now. I am familiar with travel demands of your industry - I am sure that you will find your new job much more compatible with the demands of taking care of the new baby.
    Quote Originally Posted by venki080 View Post
    @ Viz
    Exactly my situation last year. I was in a similar dilemma all I did was PM Q and MAtt2012 got their views and made a switch didnt bother filing AC 21 since I didnt want to send any notifications to USCIS without being asked for it. Meanwhile my H1B was cancelled ( I made the switch on EAD) and I got a H1B revoke letter from USCIS . I was 100 % sure that I would get an RFE on my current employment status but nothing happened and I got my GC without any issues on Sep 12th 2013 . So I would suggest you make the switch ( I remember Q bhai's words to me " We are in this country for a better life and better career opportunities - That is priority everything else secondary"
    Quote Originally Posted by venkat View Post
    Congrats Viz on your child.

    The most important lawyer to get your opinion would be the one in your proposed new job (hopefully they have an immigration attorney/team). Because in the unfortunate case of any RFE he would be the one who will be representing the case. I would suggest take the offer but inform the HR that you want to personally talk to the immigration lawyer to clarify few things. This way you know for sure.

    I'll tell you 9 out 10 will be OK with your scenario. All the Best!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Viz this is an important time in your life. It looks like you should go ahead and do the switch. Congrats again. How old is the little one now?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Congratulations on your little one Viz. Go ahead with your new offer.
    Thanks all for your wishes. My girl is 3 weeks today.

    It's an opportunity yet not an offer but they contacted me so they see the skills. My dilemma was stemming from whether I should even meet the SVPs and COO and then turn it down for immigration reasons. Might burn some bridges there which I would hate doing.

  9. #3034
    Hi Viz
    I understand where you are coming from. I have been in this situation last year. I had interacted with VP of an organization where they wanted to hire some one. I did not want to discuss with him about immigration aspects at that level and burn the relationship and/or bridges. I went ahead and hired an independent lawyer myself and explained my situation. Luckily attorney reasoned out that it is fit for AC-21 type of scenario and it is absolutely fine to switch.
    I then continued my discussion with VP and other higher ups and took the offer. Only during the HR discussions, I told them that I might need AC-21 (EVL) as well as future EVL if USCIS asks for it. I also told them that I do not need an attorney support as I have hired my own. Then they went back to their HR managers as well as their attorney (this is just my guess) and came back agreeing to that, since VP liked me any way.

    I have since switched and as expected the old company cancelled H1B that I was on, but I never received any RFE and also was able to successfully submit the AC-21 and Address Change (which is acknowledged by USCIS by updating all my cases like I140, I485 etc.).

    Just thought to provide the complete scenario and it is fine to go ahead with the offer if that helps both family life as well as career growth.

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Thanks all for your wishes. My girl is 3 weeks today.

    It's an opportunity yet not an offer but they contacted me so they see the skills. My dilemma was stemming from whether I should even meet the SVPs and COO and then turn it down for immigration reasons. Might burn some bridges there which I would hate doing.

  10. #3035
    Quote Originally Posted by redwood View Post
    This could be a double whammy for India. PERM speeds up and the percentage I+C decreases ( 62%). If I remember correctly it was 65% in Q1 also which means in Q2 it was ~ 60%
    As expected the number is on the higher side. I am hoping that there wont be as many I-485 applications filed by EB2ROW. Hopefully the fast movement in EB3ROW will mean that lesser porting for EBROW. Am just wondering whether there might be many EB3ROW who might have filed PERM to port to EB2ROW but by the time the PERM was approved they might have been current with EB3ROW date. In that case they might not really use the certified PERM and would be counted against EB3ROW and not EB2ROW

  11. #3036
    I wanted to reply to a couple of points raised recently:
    -EB2-ROW doing PP: There is a strong preference to do PP. Applicants can "smell the finish line" and are willing to pay the extra $ to get a green card earlier. Also, when filing concurrently your I-485 with and I-140 with PP the packet does not go to the lockbox, rather the whole thing is mailed to the PP unit. Anecdotes suggest this results in an earlier fingerprint appointment and therefore an earlier EAD/AP.
    -EB-2 PERM slowdown: PD up to 08/2012 saw PERMs processed in two months. By PD 01/2013 it had grown to four months and since about 4/2013 it ballooned to 7 months. I have seen little evidence of this trend getting any better.
    -EB-2 I-485 slowdown: In early 2013 an I-485 could be approved in 3 months. Around that time the waiting period for I-130s had grown to more than 15 months (this is because the units that processed I-130s were processing DACA). USCIS responded by transferring I-130s from VSC/CSC to TSC/NSC and this may explain why the I-485s started to slow down in early 2014. Frankly, while DACA is around I expect USCIS to have "glitches" in processing. I would not be surprised if they decide to dump the I-130s back to CSC/VSC to clear room to approve I-485s come the August/September crunch.

  12. #3037
    Good points all. I had to google DACA - for others like me, it refers to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. It seems more than 500K applicants were given EAD through DACA. These are 2 year EADs which will come up for renewal in 2014. At $465 per application and renewal, USCIS is making decent money on this process too.
    Quote Originally Posted by justvisiting View Post
    I wanted to reply to a couple of points raised recently:
    -EB2-ROW doing PP: There is a strong preference to do PP. Applicants can "smell the finish line" and are willing to pay the extra $ to get a green card earlier. Also, when filing concurrently your I-485 with and I-140 with PP the packet does not go to the lockbox, rather the whole thing is mailed to the PP unit. Anecdotes suggest this results in an earlier fingerprint appointment and therefore an earlier EAD/AP.
    -EB-2 PERM slowdown: PD up to 08/2012 saw PERMs processed in two months. By PD 01/2013 it had grown to four months and since about 4/2013 it ballooned to 7 months. I have seen little evidence of this trend getting any better.
    -EB-2 I-485 slowdown: In early 2013 an I-485 could be approved in 3 months. Around that time the waiting period for I-130s had grown to more than 15 months (this is because the units that processed I-130s were processing DACA). USCIS responded by transferring I-130s from VSC/CSC to TSC/NSC and this may explain why the I-485s started to slow down in early 2014. Frankly, while DACA is around I expect USCIS to have "glitches" in processing. I would not be surprised if they decide to dump the I-130s back to CSC/VSC to clear room to approve I-485s come the August/September crunch.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  13. #3038
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Good points all. I had to google DACA - for others like me, it refers to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. It seems more than 500K applicants were given EAD through DACA. These are 2 year EADs which will come up for renewal in 2014. At $465 per application and renewal, USCIS is making decent money on this process too.
    The majority of DACAs will expire in early 2015, but you are right, the very first renewals will be in late 2014. Who knows how USCIS will respond to that! I would not be shocked if we go back to the days of two year AOS - CP may become a very attractive option.

  14. #3039
    My EAD is up for renewal on Dec 1, 2014 i.e. 4 months prior to expiry. I hope I get mine in time. I have the 2 yr EAD/AP combo.

    What happens if we don't' get EAD on time; can we continue to work?

  15. #3040
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    My EAD is up for renewal on Dec 1, 2014 i.e. 4 months prior to expiry. I hope I get mine in time. I have the 2 yr EAD/AP combo.

    What happens if we don't' get EAD on time; can we continue to work?
    No. You cannot.

    You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.

  16. #3041
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    No. You cannot.

    You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.
    Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.
    This is an option for you.

  17. #3042
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    FY2013 Visa Approvals


    2,803 more visas were issued than the allocation for Employment Based Categories allowed.

    EB3 Approvals


    EB3-Philippines received 2,464 more visas than their allocation of 3,172 visas (77.68%).
    EB3-ROW received 9,111 less visas than their allocation of 32,933 visas (27.67%).
    Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 6,582 less visas than expected (21.65%).
    EB3 received 1,581 less visas than the allocation of 45,321 (3.49%).
    Spec - great stats as always. These EB3 numbers caused a little storm on the forum a few weeks back. One user insisted that EB3 India either didn't receive more numbers than quota or those numbers didn't come from EB3ROW. I and Kanmani thought that EB3ROW - inspite of aggresive date movements - just couldn't generate enough demand and hence ended up giving up its visas to EB3I (and now I know also to EB3P). I would be interested in hearing your take on that if any.

    I also want to note that it interesting that...

    1. EB3 overall consumed less visas than quota in spite of a very mature backlog.
    2. EB3P received more when Philippines is a backlogged country across EB and FB.

    Those would be good questions to ask CO.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  18. #3043
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Spec - great stats as always. These EB3 numbers caused a little storm on the forum a few weeks back. One user insisted that EB3 India either didn't receive more numbers than quota or those numbers didn't come from EB3ROW. I and Kanmani thought that EB3ROW - inspite of aggresive date movements - just couldn't generate enough demand and hence ended up giving up its visas to EB3I (and now I know also to EB3P). I would be interested in hearing your take on that if any.

    I also want to note that it interesting that...

    1. EB3 overall consumed less visas than quota in spite of a very mature backlog.
    2. EB3P received more when Philippines is a backlogged country across EB and FB.

    Those would be good questions to ask CO.
    Q,

    I saw the conversation previously and agreed with the view put forward by Kanmani and yourself. IMO, it is clear that the extra numbers were made available to EB3-I due to the lack of demand from EB3-ROW caused by CO moving the Cut Off Date too little/too late.

    To address your questions:

    1. My belief is that happened because EB2-I had used too many visas. EB as a whole overshot their allocation of 158,466. CO had to stop all approvals and EB3 were the losers. It has been a continuing trend over the past few years and has occurred to some extent in every FY from FY2009 thru FY2013.

    2. I think this is a topic that has been discussed before. The 7% limitation is an overall limitation across the total of FB & EB numbers. The September 2013 VB set the number as 26,913 for FY2013.

    E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS
    REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION
    AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

    The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 25th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

    The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2013 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limits for FY-2013 are as follows:

    Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
    Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 158,466

    Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2013 the per-country limit is 26,913. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,689.
    This is what allows South Korea to receive more EB visas than otherwise appears possible.

    For Philippines, it is easier to just look at it from an EB point of view (although that is not strictly correct as I said above). 7% of 158,466 is 11,093 approvals within all EB Categories. Philippines only used 4,901 visas in the other 4 EB Categories. Even with the extra numbers in EB3, Philippines only used 10,537 visas within all of EB in FY2013, which is still below the 11,093 limit.

    Overall, Philippines used 26,840 visas across FB & EB. Of these, 24,221 counted towards the 7% limit, because 2,619 were issued under F2A (Exempt) and did not count towards the 7% calculation.

    The low use by Philippines in other EB Categories has always allowed them to receive more EB3 visas than the notional 7% calculation for EB3 alone would suggest. The same used to be true for EB3-Mexico until they reached the EB3-ROW Cut Off Date.

    I have said before that this seems unfair to EB3-ROW, because it reduces their allocation quite considerably, while the same under use by Philippines in EB1, EB4 and EB5 is also given as Fall Down to EB2 and under use in EB2 is available as Fall Across within EB2.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #3044
    Spec Thanks.
    I agree with your take on both the questions I had raised. I am amazed that CO doesn't have a real time visa allocation system. That would eliminate these overages and make it fair for everybody.

    ps. moved the discussion in this thread as you suggested. This is a good place for these kind of discussions. Those interested in the data can view it here.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #3045
    Quote Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun View Post
    Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.
    This is an option for you.
    No. You cannot.

    You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.
    I left my H1-B and joined a bigger company Oil & Gas company on EAD in IT for a better role (not the smartest thing to do but I was bored doing the same thing in my old company). I'll apply for EAD early and hope to get it in time but you have to be prepared for everything.

  21. #3046
    Generally speaking you can if your employer is the same as whoever sponsored your H1B and H1B is still valid. (Which doesn't seem to be the case in your particular case).

    In fact you can also capture any unused H1B while you were on EAD.
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    No. You cannot.



    I left my H1-B and joined a bigger company Oil & Gas company on EAD in IT for a better role (not the smartest thing to do but I was bored doing the same thing in my old company). I'll apply for EAD early and hope to get it in time but you have to be prepared for everything.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #3047
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Generally speaking you can if your employer is the same as whoever sponsored your H1B and H1B is still valid. (Which doesn't seem to be the case in your particular case).

    In fact you can also capture any unused H1B while you were on EAD.
    Agree with Q. Sorry smuggymba, didn't know of your Work changes while responding.
    Good luck to you and hope your approval comes on time. Do keep is updated.

  23. #3048
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    USCIS Dashboard Upated

    For those interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the February 2014 figures.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  24. #3049
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the February 2014 figures.
    Spec, what are your thoughts on the receipt volume? EB3 date movement is hardly noticeable on it as I see it. What does this entail for the future date movements?

  25. #3050
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Spec, what are your thoughts on the receipt volume? EB3 date movement is hardly noticeable on it as I see it. What does this entail for the future date movements?
    kd,

    To be honest, I still don't have a great feel for EB3-ROW volumes.

    The problem with the dashboard data for NSC and TSC is that Employment I-485 is not all they handle and the other cases (Asylum & Refugee) are not an insignificant amount of the total.

    At NSC, Q3 FY2013 Employment I-485 receipts only accounted for 34% of the total. That rose to 38% in Q4 and part of that rise might have been because the EB2-I (and EB3-I) dates moved forward in that quarter.

    AT TSC, they have a higher % of EB receipts. In Q3 FY2013, Employment I-485 receipts accounted for 67% of the total. That rose to 75% in Q4.

    Overall in FY2013, Employment Based I-485 receipts have accounted for between 46% and 55% of the total receipts at NSC/TSC. The highest % was in Q4.

    It is a similar story for completions.

    Overall the receipt numbers for EB seem to have held up quite well, if you accept that months where EB2-I and EB3-I moved forward would result in an extra number. They remain higher than, say, the Jan-Apr 2013 period, after which EB3 moved past July 2007 PD and the Cut Off Dates started to move at a faster pace. That is in a period where we might suspect that slow PERM processing times have also slowed EB2-ROW receipts.

    All that said, EB3-ROW numbers don't appear to be that large in historical terms.

    Numbers seem somewhat larger for 2008/2009 PD compared to 2010/2011. PD2012 seems incomplete to date.

    I would not like to guess really, since I have little confidence in the underlying assumptions used to calculate the number. I have some numbers I am using, but I don't feel comfortable sharing them, since they have such a high error margin.

    I think EB3-ROW have more than enough cases for their allocation this year - to the extent that the Cut Off Date will probably retrogress before year end if sufficient cases are adjudicated. Next year could be quite interesting.

    I would be very interested to hear any thoughts you have on the matter, as well as those of anyone else.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

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