EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[mechanical13]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?

The mass RFE's went out on June 14th, 2013.

[ksur23]

It is expected that PD will likely move from July to September. My PD is Jan 2009, I am hoping for some luck and get current in September. Does that mean I will likely get RFE in August? And does GC get mailed in September or later? Thanks to all who can respond.

[vizcard]

It is expected that PD will likely move from July to September. My PD is Jan 2009, I am hoping for some luck and get current in September. Does that mean I will likely get RFE in August? And does GC get mailed in September or later? Thanks to all who can respond.

You won't necessarily get a RFE - not everyone gets one. The physical GC takes a couple of months (IIRC). However, if you need to travel or anything, I believe you can get it stamped on your passport at your local USCIS office.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

My Priority date is 03-25-2009, EB2-I. I didn't apply last time when my priority date was current, what are the chances of getting at least EAD this year?

Thanks.

[ksur23]

You won't necessarily get a RFE - not everyone gets one. The physical GC takes a couple of months (IIRC). However, if you need to travel or anything, I believe you can get it stamped on your passport at your local USCIS office.

Got it. Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Moved the EB3-I 2013 SOFAD discussion to

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...FAD-Discussion

For any further comments please go there. Please do not use this thread for that discussion.

[EB2-03252009]

anyone please?

Hi,

My Priority date is 03-25-2009, EB2-I. I didn't apply last time when my priority date was current, what are the chances of getting at least EAD this year?

Thanks.

[qesehmk]

anyone please?

EB2-bunchofnumbers ... for you unfortunately the chances for an EAD and GC are pretty similar. The reason being there is a large backlog ahead of you that is quite mature i.e. ready to allocate visas. So CO has no reason to move dates far ahead unless visas are available. So he is calibrating EB2I moves very fine. The only reason we see retrogression is because of the artificial 3K limit. But realistically at the end of the year the dates are going to jump .. the chances of the dates jumping to Mar 2009 are 30-50% IMHO.

Once they jump there and you file you will receive your GC within 4-5 months.

[vizcard]

EB2-bunchofnumbers ... for you unfortunately the chances for an EAD and GC are pretty similar. The reason being there is a large backlog ahead of you that is quite mature i.e. ready to allocate visas. So CO has no reason to move dates far ahead unless visas are available. So he is calibrating EB2I moves very fine. The only reason we see retrogression is because of the artificial 3K limit. But realistically at the end of the year the dates are going to jump .. the chances of the dates jumping to Mar 2009 are 30-50% IMHO.

Once they jump there and you file you will receive your GC within 4-5 months.

...assuming your dates remain current.

[qesehmk]

...assuming your dates remain current.

Yep. Thanks Viz.!!!

[mknop1]

Hi Experts, my priority date is May 2010 in EB2 and it has been a tough 6 years since i went back home. I want to go home only after getting an EAD and not worry about stamping. What are my chances this year ? Or next ? Greatly appreciate any inputs.

[skpanda]

Hello Friends...

From the Demand Data I see about 30K pending for EB2I. Consular processing may have about 10K applicants. So a total outstanding applications till Apr 2010 is about 40K.

My PD is Dec 2010 EB2I.

As per my calculations if I assume a 15K GC allocation/SOFAD to EB2I for next two FYs, and a 3K porting for next two FYs, I am hoping that I should be able to file for EAD at the end of 2015 calender year (about 16K pending applications i.e. DD + Consular). Worst case would be July 2016.

Request you to point anything I may have missed and probable timeframe when I can file for EAD as per your calculations.


Thanks in Advance!

[qesehmk]

skpanda - I think this is reasonable and decently conservative. If there are more visas ... all the better!

Hello Friends...

From the Demand Data I see about 30K pending for EB2I. Consular processing may have about 10K applicants. So a total outstanding applications till Apr 2010 is about 40K.

My PD is Dec 2010 EB2I.

As per my calculations if I assume a 15K GC allocation/SOFAD to EB2I for next two FYs, and a 3K porting for next two FYs, I am hoping that I should be able to file for EAD at the end of 2015 calender year (about 16K pending applications i.e. DD + Consular). Worst case would be July 2016.

Request you to point anything I may have missed and probable timeframe when I can file for EAD as per your calculations.


Thanks in Advance!

[qesehmk]

mknop1 - I feel for you. I hope you are not hurt if I say this year there is absolutely zero chance that EB2I May 2010 will be current. I do not think it will be current at least for another 12 months from now. I would be pleased if I am proven wrong.

If I were you I would go back meet folks and stamp and come back. Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to hurt you.

Hi Experts, my priority date is May 2010 in EB2 and it has been a tough 6 years since i went back home. I want to go home only after getting an EAD and not worry about stamping. What are my chances this year ? Or next ? Greatly appreciate any inputs.

[skpanda]

Thanks Q...

A year ago I was hoping that I will be current at the end of 2014 Calender Year and avoid re-stamping in Feb 2015 when my visa expires (total 9 years of H1B).

As it appears there is zero chance of that. Hence I am mentally preparing myself for the best and worst case.

I have to get a new Visa stamp next year since I travel outside the country almost every month. I do not have any issues with that.. my only problem is my wife (on H4) is ready to start working early next year and we will have to either wait for EAD or look for a H1B employer. Seeking H1B for 9 months or 1 year before EAD may not be worth it.. so we might just wait it out and waste about 1 year.

If only CIR or some bill could get some relief to H4s.

skpanda - I think this is reasonable and decently conservative. If there are more visas ... all the better!

[qesehmk]

You're welcome skpanda.

You hope was alright. But one of the dynamic that has shifted the conventional 5 year wait is that now EB3I folks are getting mature in their careers and started porting into EB2. So that kind of has stalled EB2I movement a little. EB2I is still a whole lot better than EB3I but unfortunately for the EB2I folks with PD post mid 2008, now the wait has become even more agonizing with these EB3I portings.

For backlogged countries like India CIR is the only hope as industry has a vested interest in keeping H1B slavery intact. So nobody will work on EB immigration (zuckerberg is an honorable exception). As of now indeed it seems that any immigration reform for EB must be tagged to FB.

Good luck for your plans. My one piece of advice - if you don't mind. Don't wait on anything. Keep working on life and career. GC will take care of itself someday.

Thanks Q...

A year ago I was hoping that I will be current at the end of 2014 Calender Year and avoid re-stamping in Feb 2015 when my visa expires (total 9 years of H1B).

As it appears there is zero chance of that. Hence I am mentally preparing myself for the best and worst case.

I have to get a new Visa stamp next year since I travel outside the country almost every month. I do not have any issues with that.. my only problem is my wife (on H4) is ready to start working early next year and we will have to either wait for EAD or look for a H1B employer. Seeking H1B for 9 months or 1 year before EAD may not be worth it.. so we might just wait it out and waste about 1 year.

If only CIR or some bill could get some relief to H4s.

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thanks for replying. I have been through a prolonged stamping experience once before so do not want to take the risk again. My family visits us regularly so i can't complain too much. What are my chances next year ? Or the year after ?

mknop1 - I feel for you. I hope you are not hurt if I say this year there is absolutely zero chance that EB2I May 2010 will be current. I do not think it will be current at least for another 12 months from now. I would be pleased if I am proven wrong.

If I were you I would go back meet folks and stamp and come back. Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to hurt you.

[qesehmk]

qesehmk - Thanks for replying. I have been through a prolonged stamping experience once before so do not want to take the risk again. My family visits us regularly so i can't complain too much. What are my chances next year ? Or the year after ?

May 2010 realistically seems like USCIS year 2016 end. So around Aug-Sep 2016 I would say.

[smuggymba]

My PD is Mar 2010 and I was few of the lucky one's who got EAD -my wife can work and I changed jobs also (that it's a headache is another story ). EAD is really good but unless you get GC, they take you to secondary inspection each time at PoE, it feels pretty bad . I changed jobs for role (no money increase) and some times I question myself as to why I did that.

EAD gives you some extra stability but life without GC is still a painful process - license, travel, job etc.

[primus]

My PD is Mar 2010 and I was few of the lucky one's who got EAD -my wife can work and I changed jobs also (that it's a headache is another story ). EAD is really good but unless you get GC, they take you to secondary inspection each time at PoE, it feels pretty bad . I changed jobs for role (no money increase) and some times I question myself as to why I did that.

EAD gives you some extra stability but life without GC is still a painful process - license, travel, job etc.

I don't want to discourage you. But do you know, (God forbid), if I-485 gets denied, then you will have to leave country immediately. But if you would have used your H1 to work and use AC21, then even if I-485 gets denied, you can continue staying here and re-apply or apply for MTR.

Actually I am also in same boat, and that looks like a sword hanging on my head all the time.

[vishnu]

skpanda: the demand data for EB2I of around 29,000 till April 2010 comprises of consular processing approved petitions AND the I-485s at USCIS centers - no need to double count.

[venkat]

Q, vizcard, kanmani, jagan and all other gurus,

Based on how it went last year it appears that RFE's may start in next 2 months for people who are likely to get GC in August/September of this year. I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year (my date was in the 4th week of June).

Can we say 95% of RFE's issued last year were related to Employment Verification letter alone? do you think we may still get Birth Certificate/Medical RFE's even if our files have been long pre-adjudicated?

Please share your thoughts.

Venkat

[smuggymba]

I don't want to discourage you. But do you know, (God forbid), if I-485 gets denied, then you will have to leave country immediately. But if you would have used your H1 to work and use AC21, then even if I-485 gets denied, you can continue staying here and re-apply or apply for MTR.

Actually I am also in same boat, and that looks like a sword hanging on my head all the time.

It's a risk I took given the long delays. I have never heard a AC21 denial case yet. I did consult with Murthy and the lawyer said that seems to falls under "similar" category.

[qesehmk]

Q, vizcard, kanmani, jagan and all other gurus,

Based on how it went last year it appears that RFE's may start in next 2 months for people who are likely to get GC in August/September of this year. I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year (my date was in the 4th week of June).

Can we say 95% of RFE's issued last year were related to Employment Verification letter alone? do you think we may still get Birth Certificate/Medical RFE's even if our files have been long pre-adjudicated?

Please share your thoughts.

Venkat

Venkat - I honestly never really gave a thought to RFEs. But looking at your date - you should be one of the first ones out of the gate. If you haven't received an RFE then the likelihood of receiving any is zero and you should've your GC pretty much in August (worst case Sep).

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thanks again for your reply. Appreciate it. You mentioned that there might be possible tailwind related to EB2 ROW low usage. If that is considered true, how could that impact the possibility of EAD for May 2010 ?

May 2010 realistically seems like USCIS year 2016 end. So around Aug-Sep 2016 I would say.