EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[gcpursuit]

I am thinking on similar lines. But it all depends on when the dates move and when does CO retrogress the dates. Both the factors cannot be predicted.
I think CO will follow the following pattern:
1. Move ahead in Aug to X
2. Move ahead to Y in Sep (Y will be based on the demand and supply data he has)
3. Keep the dates at Y until Nov. --> This is the key thing. I think he has decided that keeping dates until Nov gives him a chance to see the porting demand. He might give up the annual quota in the process. However, that is still following the rules and giving 3000 to EB2I in the begining of the year instead of steady visas across the year.

If he follows the above pattern then you might have 3 months window open.

Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

[Jagan01]

Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

Last year many people got it in 3 months. I would say a lot of the Aug first time filers got GC. So yes it is possible to get approved in 3 months

Basically, dates will be moved looking at the visible inventory and most who have pre-adj cases ready before the PD in Sep will get GCs. Around 3000 first time filers have a chance in the event that CO decides to do what he did this year. Keep approving GCs until annual allocation is used up.

[Jagan01]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q1.pdf
Perm approval data released. Gurus based on this any new predictions on EB2-I?

Hey thanks for this update.
It is pretty much inline with the expectations. We can consider PERM data from 5 quarters to count towards EB2ROW. FY2013 Q2(9k),Q3(7k),Q4(7k) an FY2014 Q1(9k),Q2(?k). This is the worst case assumption.

Assuming FY2014 Q2 is 10k, the total becomes 42k. Out of this 35% will be ROW ~15k. EB2 10k and EB3 5k. The consumption will me a multiple of 2. Hence EB2ROW should not take up more than 20k visas. If that happens then we can get 14k additional spillover.

[gc4a_k]

In that case you will need to wait until your dates become current again. My PD was surrent in Jan 2012. Applied 485. But dates retrogressed and I am still waiting. I got EAD/AP though.

sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

[PD2008AUG25]

sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

If visa number was assigned to your application during the time period PD was current, you will get it even if PD retrogresses.

[jimmys]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

[vizcard]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

0.0001% - maybe even less.

[Kanmani]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

[Jagan01]

jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

Jimmys,

Welcome...

I personally feel there is more chance than what Viz mentioned and less than what Kanmani mentioned. I tend to agree with Kanmani but here is the trick.

It depends on when the CO moves date.
1. If dates are moved in Aug and Sep then 75% chance of dates moving to Feb 2009 and 50% of dates moving to May 2009 and then it gradually tapers.
2. If CO thinks there is very good spillover due to lower EB2ROW usage then he can start moving dates earlier. If dates move starting May then porters will start showing up before the Aug and Sep months. That will change the entire scenario as CO will know exactly what the actual + porting demand is and then it makes chances of movement beyond Mar 2009 very very tough.

[Dumstuck]

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

[Wizoz2]

This is out of topic. So forum moderators please feel to move it else where if appropriate. I have a priority date of 2010 in the EB2 category. Looking to move jobs on EAD. Had been on EAd for 2 years now. The original job description for GC was software engineer II, but new position being offered is Software QA engineer. Per AC21 rules, is it wise to make a switch, and how much should the job description and duties match. Totally confused and stressed right now. Looking for answers

[Wizoz2]

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

[jaco1647]

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

[imdeng]

EB3 ROW/C is current for the purpose of generating inventory. They are likely to retrogress in near future. They are also likely to consume their quota this year (no data as yet on how much the inventory is - so this is pure guesswork right now). However, given that they seem to be having trouble getting inventory, many folks have the opinion that EB3I might receive horizontal spillover in a couple years.

BTW - EB3P has 1500 just until its PD. It surely has thousands and thousands more waiting in the wings hoping for its PD to expand. EB3P is not becoming C anytime soon.

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

[imdeng]

I wouldn't be this pessimistic. I am not going to put a number on the odds - but there is a low but reasonable shot that PD moves to go beyond the date asked (07/17/2009). We have been off on both sides in the past - too many moving pieces and too much opaque data. Hang in there Jimmy - keep your paperwork ready - and move fast if the dates indeed reach you.

0.0001% - maybe even less.

[Jagan01]

Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

may be aug-sep 2014

[Kanmani]

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

[qesehmk]

Wiz - In your particular case I think SE vs QA-SE doesn't sound much difference to me. I am not a lawyer but this job switch seems ok to me.

If you need a good peace of mind then just ask a lawyer online somewhere. Should be able to get an answer for 50 bucks or so.

Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

[venki080]

Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

[Wizoz2]

Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

Thanks I have had my EAD for close to 2 years now. And my 140 was approved in 2011. My 485 has been pending for close to 2 years and I have had my EAD 2 years now. My question was specifically in regards to job duties and title.

[sahithi]

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

[helpful_leo]

Guys,

Thanks for the very useful thread that you have going on here!

Our PD is mid-Dec 2008, EB2I, which according to info here could become current this summer. We had filed I-485 last time we became current end of 2011, at which time we got our EAD and AP, before retrogressing again. Our status on the uscis website since that time till now is initial review. Few Qs:
1/ Don't they do something like pre-adjudication for applicants whose 485 applications they have received and whose dates may likely become current in the next several months? If so, how would I know if they are pre-adjudicating my case?
2/ Is there anything else I have to do / documents to submit again when the dates get current now? - my sense is USCIS has all the documents they need when we made the initial I-485 application.
3/ Is there any possibility that we may again miss the GC even if we become current this time- if we are current for only a month or so (absent other issues with documents or RFEs, etc)?

Thanks for reading and your time!

[Jagan01]

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...

[eb22010]

Hi Gurus,

Can someone predict when I will get my EAD and GC realistically? My EB2I PD is 02/26/2010. I have not filed my I485 yet when there was an opportunity last time.

[sahithi]

55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...

Thank You Jagan.