EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[idiotic]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

Invetory buildup has to happen during FY15.. It is increasingly looking that way.. How much the dates move and when the dates move is CO's decision based on the visibility he has..

[Jagan01]

I agree with 3000 or close to it (I read MATT saying on tracking about 6000 were issued though). The reason is that if more were issued, CO would make the dates U unless he was absolutely certain that numbers could be accommodated. Judging by how he has acted so far, I feel it is unlikely.

1. There might be 5k-6k approvals post Oct 2013. Again that is mapping trackitt data and it is not always accurate. I would say there might have been 5k max approvals after Oct 2013.
2. I feel 2k might have come from numbers allotted in previous FY and just took time to show up. May be they were allotted numbers in Sep from FY 2013 and actually got visas in November.
3. The remaining 3k would be from FY2014 allocation.

[imdeng]

Last time when inventory was generated, it wasn't until the current inventory was almost gone. I would expect the same to happen again. Right now they are sitting on 29.5K EB2I demand. Of this, I would (optimistically) expect 16-20K to be used in FY2014. In second half of FY2015, if it continues to look like EB2I may run through the demand by the end of the FY, then new inventory will be generated by extending the dates. However, its not inconceivable (with including porting in the mix) that the current inventory takes us through FY14 and FY15, leading to new inventory in FY16 only.

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

[imdeng]

I would think that whenever CO gets the opportunity, he would at least advance the dates enough for EB2C to match or exceed EB3C.
PS> I think it is more a case of transference on my side - don't know if CO cares really about the ridiculousness of the situation.

Invetory buildup has to happen during FY15.. It is increasingly looking that way.. How much the dates move and when the dates move is CO's decision based on the visibility he has..

[imdeng]

CO is a stickler of rules as far as possible - so I don't think he would use more than the normal yearly quota for FY2014 (~3K) for EB2I before the spillover situation becomes clear.

1. There might be 5k-6k approvals post Oct 2013. Again that is mapping trackitt data and it is not always accurate. I would say there might have been 5k max approvals after Oct 2013.
2. I feel 2k might have come from numbers allotted in previous FY and just took time to show up. May be they were allotted numbers in Sep from FY 2013 and actually got visas in November.
3. The remaining 3k would be from FY2014 allocation.

[Jagan01]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

You need to account for the fact that porting will kick in. Inventory build up might happen earliest by summer of 2015 and latest by summer of 2016.
1. There are 18k pending today in 2009 and 2010. There will be around 5k porters added if the dates move to Mar 2009. 18+5 = 22k. I think 22k is sufficient number to not build the demand.
2. A rare chance is that there will be huge spillover from EB2ROW, sufficient enough to move dates to Aug 2009. In that case he might get an inventory that is below 20k and the dates might move in summer of 2015.

[vishnu]

agreed last time it was done only after inventory went to near 0, but lets think about timing...

in 2011, we had 30,000 inventory (eb2 i+c) pre-spillover, and went to near 0 towards Q3'2011, and dates starting moving from October 2011 till around feb 2012 aggressively, to build inventory

now we are similar inventory situation (30,000), lets assume around 20k EB2 I/C visas are issued (perhaps optimistic, but lets assume), so inventory by september 2013 will be 10,000...

now if he waits till summer 2015 to move dates, there maybe the risk of visa wastage

he does know that in the past > 10k visas have been issued each year

remember, untill he moves the dates, he does not know what demand is going to be like (technically he can via I-140 data, but practically does not appear to be this way)

hence i feel that he will move dates before 2015 spill over season to make sure inventory at any point is at least > 20k

lets debate this... not trying to force thru any strong arguments, but worth considering this analysis

[kkruna]

There are some people with PD before May 2010 and who missed filing last time. As dates advance, their numbers would add up too.

[redwood]

I would assume Fall or Spring would be a good time for inventory build up rather than Summer as they are doing right now with EB3ROW and how they did with EB2I in 2012. If we get 20K+ this year, the CO will be left with 15K demand (3K porting+2K others). Will that be a sufficient reason for inventory buildup ? It will depend on factors in play at that time.

[YTeleven]

I agree to what Sports mentioned.

The biggest piece of data we have had is the demand data published last week. That shows that there are 10500 candidates prior to Jan 2009. This removed the questions that have been around the demand side of things. There were many applicants that had ported and had applied in the period from Aug-Nov. Now all that is factored in and the number pending before Jan 2009 is 10500.

Supply side is also pretty clear. There will be good spillover from EB2ROW due to slow down in PERM, sufficient enough to negate the effect of lower spillover from FB (10k instead of 18k from last year).

The only unknown we have is "How many visas from FY 2014 allocation were used up until now". In my assumption, I have assumed that to be the annual 3000 that is allowed to EB2I. Different people have different take on that. We will never know that number.

Here is the calculated numbers for visa allocation and expected inventory so far in FY2014.
These are approximated to nearest 50 and the input used to calculate was oct'13 inventory, Nov'13DD and Feb'14DD.

[YTeleven]

I don't get these numbers. How did you calculate X, Y and Z, and how did you make the future projections?

These are NOT future projections. These visas are already issued and hence the inventory should look like those numbers. These are calculated from the 3 available input files.

Let me show how to check the 7k figure is correct or not:
Oct2013 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009---13645 A
EB2I Feb14DD data before Jan2009---------------10550 B
EB2I Inventory reduction (A-B)----------------------3095 C

Oct2013 EB3I Inventory data before 2008--------34336 D
EB3I Feb14DD data-----------------------------------30350 E
EB3I Inventory reduction (D-E)----------------------3986 F

Total EBI Inventory Reduction so far(C+F)---------7081

[Jagan01]

agreed last time it was done only after inventory went to near 0, but lets think about timing...

in 2011, we had 30,000 inventory (eb2 i+c) pre-spillover, and went to near 0 towards Q3'2011, and dates starting moving from October 2011 till around feb 2012 aggressively, to build inventory

now we are similar inventory situation (30,000), lets assume around 20k EB2 I/C visas are issued (perhaps optimistic, but lets assume), so inventory by september 2013 will be 10,000...

now if he waits till summer 2015 to move dates, there maybe the risk of visa wastage

he does know that in the past > 10k visas have been issued each year

remember, untill he moves the dates, he does not know what demand is going to be like (technically he can via I-140 data, but practically does not appear to be this way)

hence i feel that he will move dates before 2015 spill over season to make sure inventory at any point is at least > 20k

lets debate this... not trying to force thru any strong arguments, but worth considering this analysis

If you want to be realistic then there is a minimal chance of inventory build up before 2016. The only big ticket is EB2ROW. If that throws up some huge spillover then it is a possibility.

1. I would say every month that the dates move ahead beyond June 2008, you can safely assume and additional 400 porters. Currently there are 1.5 k prior to June 2008.
porters = 400 * (PD in sep 2014 - June 2008) {for example : if PD in sep 2014 goes to Mar 2009 then porters will be 400 * 9 = 3600}
2. Actual demand visible to CO by Nov 2014 will include porting.
3. If EB2I totally gets same as last year (17k which is tough) then 3k out of that is already used up. So 14k remain. That 14k will eat up the demand until Feb 2009.
4. After that there are 16k in the inventory + 3.5k of new porters. Total inventory would be ~20 k

Practically next year is supposed to be very bad. FB visas will be minimal. I do not see any changes in EB1 and EB5. EB2ROW might be the lone hope in the FY2015. If this year is 17k then next year is surely less than that. May be 15k.

CO would in Nov 2014 have ~20k pending inventory and in the next year he knows the projection is less than ~15k. Why would he need to build up inventory. He would wait till Feb to see the picture and if he feels there is low inventory then he might. But as explained that will not be the case.

[Jagan01]

If you want to be realistic then there is a minimal chance of inventory build up before 2016. The only big ticket is EB2ROW. If that throws up some huge spillover then it is a possibility.

1. I would say every month that the dates move ahead beyond June 2008, you can safely assume and additional 400 porters. Currently there are 1.5 k prior to June 2008.
porters = 400 * (PD in sep 2014 - June 2008) {for example : if PD in sep 2014 goes to Mar 2009 then porters will be 400 * 9 = 3600}
2. Actual demand visible to CO by Nov 2014 will include porting.
3. If EB2I totally gets same as last year (17k which is tough) then 3k out of that is already used up. So 14k remain. That 14k will eat up the demand until Feb 2009.
4. After that there are 16k in the inventory + 3.5k of new porters. Total inventory would be ~20 k

Practically next year is supposed to be very bad. FB visas will be minimal. I do not see any changes in EB1 and EB5. EB2ROW might be the lone hope in the FY2015. If this year is 17k then next year is surely less than that. May be 15k.

CO would in Nov 2014 have ~20k pending inventory and in the next year he knows the projection is less than ~15k. Why would he need to build up inventory. He would wait till Feb to see the picture and if he feels there is low inventory then he might. But as explained that will not be the case.

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

[redwood]

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

In other words, it all hinges on PERM speed, notwithstanding EB2NIW. Last year it was the I-140 backlog clearance that increased the EB2ROW usage but there is minimum I-140 backlog this year.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1 (courtesy Kanmani)

[drop2ocean]

There are some people with PD before May 2010 and who missed filing last time. As dates advance, their numbers would add up too.

i know quite a few people who left US with PDs in 2010/2009. So hopefully that will counteract this.

[redwood]

It will be interesting to see how the next inventory buildup will take place.

What if CO is left with 10-15K inventory? I think the next buildup (unfortunately) will result in waste of visas for EB2I. CO will stick to the quota for 9 months and move the dates aggressively in the last 3 bringing the inventory to near 0. However in order to fulfil the numbers, some visas will flow down to EB3. If ROW is current then (as it seems likely), more visas to EB3I.

I agree with you. However, we don't know at what demand level would the CO move dates. He has been doing it only at demand level close to 0 but what if EB2I demand is <8K @begining of the year, would he ?

[gc4a_k]

if the PD in Sep/Oct moves beyond, lets say, March 2009 and then retrogresses after 2 months (Nov/Dec), will people with PD of March 2009 and below who have already filed for I-485 get their GC's or will they have to wait till their dates become current again.

[vinrobo]

if the PD in Sep/Oct moves beyond, lets say, March 2009 and then retrogresses after 2 months (Nov/Dec), will people with PD of March 2009 and below who have already filed for I-485 get their GC's or will they have to wait till their dates become current again.

In that case you will need to wait until your dates become current again. My PD was surrent in Jan 2012. Applied 485. But dates retrogressed and I am still waiting. I got EAD/AP though.

[civilengineer]

Canada cancelled the investor immigration program. Will that lead to a surge in demand for EB-5 in US? 65,000 applications being returned.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news...html?hpt=hp_t2

[qesehmk]

Canada cancelled the investor immigration program. Will that lead to a surge in demand for EB-5 in US? 65,000 applications being returned.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news...html?hpt=hp_t2

Interesting news. Thanks.

It will certainly divert some but not all. But even if one assumes 10% are diverted ... that's enough to consume all EB5 visas for next year or this.

The reason not all will convert is because Canadian program is pretty much an interest free loan to the government whereas American program requires actual investment and proof that 10 jobs were really created. American program is not as easy as it sounds. You can lose your 1/2 mil and not have a GC.

In a world where all governments are printing money - the incentive to have interest free investment isn't enough when compared to the wrath of anti immigration forces. Besides canada is doing very well financially thanks to the rise in all sorts of commodities and the shell gas. Gone are the days when candian dollar could be bought for 70-80 US cents.

[surya1975]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q1.pdf
Perm approval data released. Gurus based on this any new predictions on EB2-I?

[gcpursuit]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

[shekhar_kuruk]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

I am trying to answer your questions but after reading your post a couple of times I think I need more information.
1. Are you in the US right now?
2. Even if you file AOS instead of CP and the dates become current, if all your documentation is correct, you may receive your GC in a couple of months, the chances are low but I think they are the same as CP, but the EAD is guaranteed.
3. Why do you think using CP is better, the information you have provided above where you spent close to $3500 for nothing, proves that it is risky.

[Jagan01]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

I am thinking on similar lines. But it all depends on when the dates move and when does CO retrogress the dates. Both the factors cannot be predicted.
I think CO will follow the following pattern:
1. Move ahead in Aug to X
2. Move ahead to Y in Sep (Y will be based on the demand and supply data he has)
3. Keep the dates at Y until Nov. --> This is the key thing. I think he has decided that keeping dates until Nov gives him a chance to see the porting demand. He might give up the annual quota in the process. However, that is still following the rules and giving 3000 to EB2I in the begining of the year instead of steady visas across the year.

If he follows the above pattern then you might have 3 months window open.

[gcpursuit]

I am trying to answer your questions but after reading your post a couple of times I think I need more information.
1. Are you in the US right now?
2. Even if you file AOS instead of CP and the dates become current, if all your documentation is correct, you may receive your GC in a couple of months, the chances are low but I think they are the same as CP, but the EAD is guaranteed.
3. Why do you think using CP is better, the information you have provided above where you spent close to $3500 for nothing, proves that it is risky.

1. Yes
2. I agree.
3. Last time we got the NVC notice during the first week of January. We sent our documents end of Feb (Feb 27th ) -- I think we waited too long to move forward. The NVC finished processing within 15 days (~ March 16th) - not sure if they are this fast at all times. We did not make it to the April interview list ( they publish the list around VB time ). There was a possibility that we could have been on May list but the dates retrogressed in May.

According to Ron Gotcher, the interviews are typically scheduled the month following the month when dates get current ( after getting documentarily qualified ). If I get current in August, interview will be in September. I am not sure how CP will work with such brief periods of forward movement. What happens to people who get current in September and date retrogresses in October? Thats my main doubt.

Honestly, I am more concerned about FY2015 with no FB spillovers, PERM picking up speed, high EB1 usage, porting. That's why the option of getting GC this year( which looks better than next year ) is more lucrative if 2 months is enough for scheduling interview.