EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vizcard]

Does any one have any guess on how porting demand distribution would like ? I mean the priority date distribution of porters? With all the wait times for immigration which seems to be growing by the day, why would people apply in EB3 ( post July 2007 )? Wouldn't people with earlier PDs like 2003/04/05/06 have already ported by now. I understand the retrogression and that there is enough demand to consume monthly quota etc., Why hasn't the porting demand tapered off?


P.S : I don't know how difficult it is to port from EB3 to EB2. I changed employers (EB2 to EB2 ) with 2009 PD.

Don't view porting as a temporary phenomenon. Its been around for a while but has come to the forefront because of the magnitude. Most porting in the past was done like you did..when you changed jobs. Now ppl are actively (I think - no data to support it) changing EB3 to EB2 even with same employers.

for an order of magnitude, think of how many ppl apply in EB3 every year. So after 5 yrs, those applicants are eligible for EB2... same thing the following year and the following year. So lets assume if there are 10k EB3 applicants every year, there is potential for 10K porters every year. I don't think porting is 10k per year (or even close to that) but that's just to demonstrate my point.

[qesehmk]

Viz said it very nicely. This is an ongoing snowballing process. think about all the EB3s from 2003/4/5 ... as these guys become mature in their profession it is quite logical that most of them have built more and more credibility in their organization so that their managers are now reprocessing their EB2s.

So the more backlogged EB3 will be ... eventually EB2 is going to become only slightly less backlogged. That's the nature of the beast that is immigration. You squeeze in one end it pops out at the other.

Don't view porting as a temporary phenomenon. Its been around for a while but has come to the forefront because of the magnitude. Most porting in the past was done like you did..when you changed jobs. Now ppl are actively (I think - no data to support it) changing EB3 to EB2 even with same employers.

for an order of magnitude, think of how many ppl apply in EB3 every year. So after 5 yrs, those applicants are eligible for EB2... same thing the following year and the following year. So lets assume if there are 10k EB3 applicants every year, there is potential for 10K porters every year. I don't think porting is 10k per year (or even close to that) but that's just to demonstrate my point.

[axecapone]

Hey folks,

I have been reading this thread quite actively. My PD is in Sept 2013, so my story is not really relevant to this post but I am curious to know the future of EB based GC for India.

From what I am reading, the future looks very disturbing for EB Indian applicants without any reform. Before recession (2007-2008), it was a standard wait time of 4-4.5 years to get EB2 GC irrespective of how you started. I would have assumed recession would have made things easier but it does not appear to be so. I am wondering are there are any signals that indicate the queue stabilizing? Conversely, are there any signals that indicate the queue is getting only progressively worse?

[sreddy]

It was 4 to 5 years before recession, right now it is about 5.5 to 6 years (June/July 2008 PD will get GC in July/Aug 2014). EB2I is dependent on two factors. EB3 to EB2 porting, and spill over from EB1, EB2ROW, and other categories. Hard to predict porting numbers, and demand in those categories that are currently contributing to EB2I. If the current trend continues, EB2I is expected to loose about 3-6 months per year.

There was a hope of EB2I becoming current (or close to current) with immigration bill passing in Congress. Now chances of that happening are very dim in Obama's period. 2014 is the last opportunity for that to happen. If not, nothing is going to happen until 2018. Even after that, it all depends on the new president, and congress.

Hey folks,

I have been reading this thread quite actively. My PD is in Sept 2013, so my story is not really relevant to this post but I am curious to know the future of EB based GC for India.

From what I am reading, the future looks very disturbing for EB Indian applicants without any reform. Before recession (2007-2008), it was a standard wait time of 4-4.5 years to get EB2 GC irrespective of how you started. I would have assumed recession would have made things easier but it does not appear to be so. I am wondering are there are any signals that indicate the queue stabilizing? Conversely, are there any signals that indicate the queue is getting only progressively worse?

[vizcard]

The signals are straight supply and demand. Demand is increasing (see PERM data), supply is the same or slightly decreasing. Without FB overflows, the situation could have been disastrous.

I'm afraid without reform, it will just get worse. The Republicans are actively taking up immigration (even as I type this) so perhaps there is a sliver of hope.

[TeddyKoochu]

The signals are straight supply and demand. Demand is increasing (see PERM data), supply is the same or slightly decreasing. Without FB overflows, the situation could have been disastrous.

I'm afraid without reform, it will just get worse. The Republicans are actively taking up immigration (even as I type this) so perhaps there is a sliver of hope.

Viz you are correct without FB overflows frankly its a disastrous situation. Just to add the perm statistics are heavily skewed towards India. Till last year we would make an assumption that India and China together would contribute 50%; recentlyI read that India alone contributes more than 50%, this is in a way positive because less ROW translates to more spillover but it is more backlog, so the axiom of 5 Years to get GC is pretty much gone.

[sandykolu]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

[redwood]

Viz you are correct without FB overflows frankly its a disastrous situation. Just to add the perm statistics are heavily skewed towards India. Till last year we would make an assumption that India and China together would contribute 50%; recentlyI read that India alone contributes more than 50%, this is in a way positive because less ROW translates to more spillover but it is more backlog, so the axiom of 5 Years to get GC is pretty much gone.

To give you the correct numbers for PERM (I +C)

2010 - 47%
2011 - 58%
2012 - 61%
2013 - 65%

From the trend 2014 would be more like 66 - 68%

Some Sources below

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ation_2012.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf

[vizcard]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

I've been gripping about this for a long time. It is what it is. Nothing about the current immigration system is fair. EB3s are getting their GCs before EB2s just because they are from a different country. Its all a major cluster. Hopefully things will improve in the near future.

[idiotic]

To give you the correct numbers for PERM (I +C)

2010 - 47%
2011 - 58%
2012 - 61%
2013 - 65%

From the trend 2014 would be more like 66 - 68%

Some Sources below

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ation_2012.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf

Instead of percentages its better to put the actual numbers certified as the base is different.

[idiotic]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

I think its good because it is basically the same person. One has suffered long enough in EB3 and letting him suffer again in EB2 in back of the queue is unfair.

[AC_1980]

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

[qesehmk]

Breach of H1B status makes it sound like she did something illegal - which she didn't.

She lost H1 status because she entered on AP. It's really as simple as that.

If she has an H1 with her right now (which you say she has) she can always go back to H1 status (as long as H1 is not expired) just in case the 485 is denied.

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

[vizcard]

Breach of H1B status makes it sound like she did something illegal - which she didn't.

She lost H1 status because she entered on AP. It's really as simple as that.

If she has an H1 with her right now (which you say she has) she can always go back to H1 status (as long as H1 is not expired) just in case the 485 is denied.

Q - i don't believe traveling on AP makes u "lose" your status per se. Theoretically you could have only AP and H1 without the EAD. In that scenario the person would still be working on a H1B status. Regardless, the original poster has nothing to worry about and the H1 that expires in 8/2015 is still valid and his wife can always fall back if needed.

[qesehmk]

Viz

Actually I should've been more clear. One loses any status the moment you leave US (not sure about US citizens though! But this includes green card holders).

You aquire a legal status when you reenter US using some sort of visa including green card. At the end of the day green card is also a visa.

AP is a special case where you enter US in some sort of a "state" which is not really status but you are allowed to be "out of status". Spec had described it quite well somewhere.

But the point is if a Person chooses to enter on AP then H1 status is not acquired. As per ability to work - the person can not have EAD and yes indeed work on H1.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether the person automatically acquires H1 upon use of H1 or does the person have to file a COS.

Q - i don't believe traveling on AP makes u "lose" your status per se. Theoretically you could have only AP and H1 without the EAD. In that scenario the person would still be working on a H1B status. Regardless, the original poster has nothing to worry about and the H1 that expires in 8/2015 is still valid and his wife can always fall back if needed.

[Kanmani]

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

AC,

Your wife can get back her H1 Status IFF her H1b is extended and approved while she is physically present in USA.

She doesn't have status right now. She is covered by AoS pending scenario.

H1B-----> Entered using AP------> Lose H1b Status and acquire AoS pending Status less state----->H1b approval with I-94 status extension --------> returns to H1b status

[triplet]

Wonder why the inventory hasn't been published yet, seems like it is generally released 2nd/3rd week of January. Will it be released with the demand data for Feb? Hope they release it early so that we can get an idea as to where things are at the moment.

[Jagan01]

Wonder why the inventory hasn't been published yet, seems like it is generally released 2nd/3rd week of January. Will it be released with the demand data for Feb? Hope they release it early so that we can get an idea as to where things are at the moment.

I think in FY2012, the Jan I485 pending inventory was released in the first week of February. So if not tomorrow, we will be seeing it next week.

[idiotic]

Please let me know how can we find the number of EB2 National Interest Waiver applications filed in a given fiscal year?

[idiotic]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268

This is just to find the pattern of incoming rate of PERM applications for ROW+C vs outgoing rate of GC approvals for ROW+C.. I am assuming a constant approval timeline(PERM to GC for ROW) for simplicity..

1) Incoming PERM rate for 2009 is 18115.. does not match with outgoing rate of GCs in 2010 ( 33911 ).. Any reason for this anamoly?
2) Incoming PERM rate for 2010 is 41307.. matches with outgoing rate of GCs in 2011 ( 42807 )
3) Incoming PERM rate for 2011 is 28590.. matches with outgoing rate of GCs in 2012 ( 30867 )
4) Incoming PERM rate for 2012 is 24305.. does not match with outgoing rate of GCs in 2013 ( 46268 ).. Any reason for this anamoly?

I assumed NIW cases remained almost constant here.. I could not find that info anywhere..

[Jagan01]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268

.

Thanks for the data. The anomaly is because of China. If you provide the data as India, China, ROW, then it will start correlating well. Remember that China is a non-factor now. They will not get more than their 3k. Their demand supply is irrelevant. So lets keep them out of the equation.

[suninphx]

So only 14263 PERM approvals in year 2013 for ROW + C ? That should bright up spill over scenario to an extent. If current PERM approval speed persists then ROW person filing PERM even this month may not get GC this FY

[Kanmani]

So only 14263 PERM approvals in year 2013 for ROW + C ? That should bright up spill over scenario to an extent. If current PERM approval speed persists then ROW person filing PERM even this month may not get GC this FY

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

[suninphx]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kamani- thanks for additional data. I have two points here:

- the PERM rejection/audit rate has been increasing steadily
- of these pending applications EB-I would have mighty share.

And whether PERM processing picks up speed or not is any one's guess

[Kanmani]

Yes, you are correct. This might make the porters pileup slower.