EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

February 2014 visa bulletin is out ...http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6242.html

EB2 I- No change
EB2C- 08Jan09

At least China is moving ahead steadily at one month every bulletin. If EB2C ends up around June 2009 in the July visa bulletin, then we can be assured that entire spillover will go to EB2I.

[gcpursuit]

Immigrant Visas issued at consular posts do follow numerical limitation applicable to any foreign state, just like AoS . These applicants are waiting because of the retrogression.

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?

[Kanmani]

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?

gcpursuit, I now understand where you stand.

Give me some time. I'll find it out.

[suninphx]

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?

I think 2250 number itself is too high. If I remember correctly EB2I CP cases are not more than 5% of visas allocated in any year. (I will have search through Spec's posts to confirm). So to put things in perspective if last year 15K visas were allocated to EB2I then going by above assumption CP cases out of those could in range of 750 to 1K (max).

[Kanmani]

Immigrant Visas issued at CONSULAR POSTS

CAT	India 2013	Worldwide 2013	Worldwide 2012
EB1	98	1722	1534
EB2	155	2284	1398
EB3	206	8537	8310
EB4	173	1289	1217
EB5	35	7312	6678
----------	----------	----------	----------
Total	667	21144	19137
----------	----------	----------	----------

Above data is collected from the Annual Report of the visa office 2013 & 2012. Only a total of 155 EB2 visas are issued at Indian consulates across the country.

When a total of 2284 EB2WW visas issued at the consulate posts across the world, how can we justify those 2250/year EB2I alone? That is your question. gcpursuit you are correct.

The DoS Annual report over the years show only triple digit EB2I approvals as consular processed, so I don't have any doubt on its reliabilty and those 9000 from the NVC waiting is also true.

So where did we go wrong?

I would speculate on the reason on why these NVC numbers have gone so high .

When a candidate opts for a consular processing while submitting I-140, he has the flexibility to switch to AoS anytime during the process. But the reverse is not true. An AoS opted applicant at no point can change his decision. With this I came to a conclusion that many chanakyas might have opted for CP and sitting here in US smiling at us .

They might later change it to AoS or my theory is wrong.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - It's a great question and neither I have the answer. The only thing I would point out is that if your theory is correct then the distribution of the NVC backlog would be more frontloaded than backloaded.... in other words ... more towards earlier years rather than towards 2013/14 etc.

That's a scary thought. But just saying ...

One theory I can think of is .... these could be the EB3 folks who went back to India for good and used CP only as a nice to have option. Even in that scenario ... the distribution would be more front loaded.

[FONT=System]
So where did we go wrong?
...
When a candidate opts for a consular processing while submitting I-485, he has the flexibility to switch to AoS anytime during the process. But the reverse is not true. An AoS opted applicant at no point can change his decision. With this I came to a conclusion that many chanakyas might have opted for CP and sitting here in US smiling at us .

They might later change it to AoS or my theory is wrong.

[vishnu]

100,000% there are tons of EB2-I candidates with approved I-140s, residing in the US, where CP option is selected... when dates become current, can apply for i-485 as is. But in a situation, where the applicant is overseas, at least the CP option can be utilized. FOr this reason, many lawyers chose CP for Indian EB2 applicants. I am one of them I have also seen these comments in blogs such as Murthy and Gotcher.

A vast majority of EB2 I CP candidates will never actually go the CP route...direct AoS.

[gcpursuit]

Kanmani,
I am one of those who selected CP.. Well.. Our lawyer selects that by default and he explained the advantages of choosing cp.. When its time, we can choose to do cp or aos.. I don't understand why lot of them don't do this when there is clearly an advantage.

Q - I don't get the reason behind your statement that 9k would be more front loaded. Could you explain please?

[qesehmk]

gcpursuit - does CP give you EAD AC21 AOS etc? If not - then I would think that's why people opt for 485.

In terms of front vs backloaded vs average loaded - I am thinking that would be more true with my theory where if people go back and they keep GC alive through CP then the people who go back are generally with prior PDs frustrated with long wait times and looking for career progression.

On the other hand with Kanmani's theory - it would be as much front loaded but will only slightly be front loaded for the simple fact that one can only file CP after 140 approval. So even if one has PD in 2011/12/13 .... depending on whether 140 is approved - CP may or may not be filed.

Here is one more theory why there may be more CP numbers now vs prior. With EB2 now getting significantly retrogressed and EB3 severely - a candidate may be much more willing to at least get the ball rolling (or so s/he thinks). Perhaps that could explain higher CP levels.
p.s. For lack of better info - I am going with straightlining.

Kanmani,
I am one of those who selected CP.. Well.. Our lawyer selects that by default and he explained the advantages of choosing cp.. When its time, we can choose to do cp or aos.. I don't understand why lot of them don't do this when there is clearly an advantage.

Q - I don't get the reason behind your statement that 9k would be more front loaded. Could you explain please?

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit - does CP give you EAD AC21 AOS etc? If not - then I would think that's why people opt for 485.

.

Q,

CP is just an option you select when you file I-140. When your PD gets current, you can choose to apply for I-485 or do it through CP. It gives you the flexibility to choose AOS or CP.
Whereas if you selected AOS in your I-140, you need to file a request to change it to CP which I believe is a long process. I certainly see a big advantage with this.It doesnt tie you up to AOS. If you had to go overseas, you continue your GC process without any delays.

If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said, then you dont have to file anything to get on the CP list. I feel that a major portion of the 9k that was added between Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 would have later PDs( except for porting cases). I dont have any data to defend it. Its just my hunch.

[Kanmani]

gcpursuit,

I agree with you, opting for cp has dual benefits. But this is relatively new among the attorneys' community to opt for cp or to inform the applicants to choose between. Not all counsels did it then and we were one among them in 2009, I don't think many such 2006 -2008 ers were informed too.

I just noticed your PD is few days later to that of mine what do you think of our chances this FY ?

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit,

I agree with you, opting for cp has dual benefits. But this is relatively new among the attorneys' community to opt for cp or to inform the applicants to choose between. Not all counsels did it then and we were one among them in 2009, I don't think many such 2006 -2008 ers were informed too.

I just noticed your PD is few days later to that of mine what do you think of our chances this FY ?

I agree. Even now attorneys put AOS by default. I changed jobs and had to restart my I-140. The attorneys in my current company chose I-485 by default and I specifically asked them to change it when we reviewed the docs.

Regarding our PD, I am thinking next year. If we are extremely lucky, we might get a chance this year. In my case, I havent filed I-485 yet. I was in the process of changing jobs last time. I am praying that it should go through this year so that I can get EAD atleast. But I am not keeping any high hopes.

[qesehmk]

Q,

CP is just an option you select when you file I-140. When your PD gets current, you can choose to apply for I-485 or do it through CP. It gives you the flexibility to choose AOS or CP.
Whereas if you selected AOS in your I-140, you need to file a request to change it to CP which I believe is a long process. I certainly see a big advantage with this.It doesnt tie you up to AOS. If you had to go overseas, you continue your GC process without any delays.

If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said, then you dont have to file anything to get on the CP list. I feel that a major portion of the 9k that was added between Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 would have later PDs( except for porting cases). I dont have any data to defend it. Its just my hunch.

I am aware of that but I think I would differ that CP is automatic. I am pretty sure one has to choose it. Otherwise we would've seen EB2I and EB3I NVC backlog would be 40-80K!!
One has to specifically choose it. I agree that there is really not much intelligent way to determine where that 9K sits. So anybody's guess could be as good as your and mine!

[gcpursuit]

I am aware of that but I think I would differ that CP is automatic. I am pretty sure one has to choose it. Otherwise we would've seen EB2I and EB3I NVC backlog would be 40-80K!!
One has to specifically choose it. I agree that there is really not much intelligent way to determine where that 9K sits. So anybody's guess could be as good as your and mine!

I don't understand what you mean by automatic. I was saying that my attorney always chooses cp even if you want to do aos.

I can only tell from my experience with nvc. Once the i-140 was approved, USCIS forwarded a copy to the nvc. Nvc sent an email to notify about consular processing. If the PD is current, I believe it will ask to pay the fees etc. In our case, it was something like visa number not available and a case number was assigned. It is my guess that it gets added to the nvc waiting list at this point.

[qesehmk]

I was saying that my attorney always chooses cp even if you want to do aos.

This makes sense to me. Perhaps I misunderstood following sentence of yours as if you were saying that CP is default if 485 is not chosen.

If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said,

[helooo]

I don't know if this is correct or not.
http://vbimmigration.wordpress.com/2...e-visa-office/

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Based on what we know now has happened for this FY till this point, when can I expect the dates for EB2-I to move? As per the above post ref. by helooo, it looks like any fwd movement isn't likely till Aug/Sep '14. My priority date is in the last week of July '2008 & I'll be a first time filer. So, what are the chances that the dates are going to move ahead early enough for me to get a approval in FY 2014? Do you see any possibility of USCIS moving the dates back to 2008 & keeping them open for a month or two in FY 2015?

[qesehmk]

So - in terms of date movements - it has become a fixed pattern for EB2I that the dates move in last 2-3 months i.e. Jul-Sep. The only year way the dates will move anytime sooner will be when the USCIS approaches the cliff like the 2007 one. In other words the EB2I dates were moved upto May 2010 ... so the point in time when USCIS gets closer to clearing all the case till May 2010 then (or slightly before that) they will again move dates for EB2I to generate demand and then again retro back. Until then we will see a forward movement in last 3 months and then a year long retrogression.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So - in terms of date movements - it has become a fixed pattern for EB2I that the dates move in last 2-3 months i.e. Jul-Sep. The only year way the dates will move anytime sooner will be when the USCIS approaches the cliff like the 2007 one. In other words the EB2I dates were moved upto May 2010 ... so the point in time when USCIS gets closer to clearing all the case till May 2010 then (or slightly before that) they will again move dates for EB2I to generate demand and then again retro back. Until then we will see a forward movement in last 3 months and then a year long retrogression.

Got it, qesehmk but do you see the fwd movement being sustained for a couple of mos to clear out as many pending aos like how it happened this fall. Ideally, I would want it to move in May as I may 've to go to India in Aug for a family event. So, if things move in May then I could probably 've the EAD before I leave. This way I'm assured of an entry back as I would 've to go for visa stamping if I were to leave in aug.

[qesehmk]

Got it, qesehmk but do you see the fwd movement being sustained for a couple of mos to clear out as many pending aos like how it happened this fall. Ideally, I would want it to move in May as I may 've to go to India in Aug for a family event. So, if things move in May then I could probably 've the EAD before I leave. This way I'm assured of an entry back as I would 've to go for visa stamping if I were to leave in aug.

Yes I do think that once the dates move they will stay there for 2 if not for 3 months.

[sairam09]

Any idea when priority date Feb 09 will become current again. I have already filed my aos. Thanks in advance for your inputs.

[Jagan01]

Any idea when priority date Feb 09 will become current again. I have already filed my aos. Thanks in advance for your inputs.

I think it has a good chance to be current this year. You can consider that early Feb 09 will be current with a chance of 55% (similar to June 2008 for last FY).

However, whether people with PDs in 2009 will get greened or not is a separate issue. I think early feb 2009 have good chances of being current but not so good chances of being greened in this FY. IF they follow the pattern from last year then dates might stay current for first 2 months of FY 2015 and that might give a good chance to 2009 candidates to get greened.

[mvraju]

My priority date is Sept 25 2009. Any idea when it would become current. I already filed my I-485.

[triplet]

mvraju: Sept 25 2009 should take till August 2015 but I guess anything is possible when it comes to date movement. Stay positive and hope for the best.

I had a question as to whether we have to be in the US when dates are current in order to be able to receive a green card. I am a professor and I have to travel on a research project in June and July and my PD is Oct 2008, don't want to miss the boat if I get current this year. Also, if I get an RFE I want to be able to respond as quickly as possible. Thank you!

[Kanmani]

Hey Friends,

Immigrant Visas Issued at Consular Posts and Adjustments of Status subject to numerical limitations Fy-2013 is available now ....http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...ort-TableV.pdf

The Total FB used is around 215,753 out of 226k, so no more extras from FB other than already announced.

I could see only 17193 EB2I total visas have been distributed in FY 2013, earlier during AILA members meeting Mr.CO said around 15K were from already pre-adjudicated cases, PD movement to June 2008 justifies this in the I-485 inventory.

Having said that leaves the porting demand cleared could be around 2k (!!!).

Point me where I went wrong.