EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vizcard]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

Primus
I don't have personal experience but there is a sub forum here dedicated to BC RFEs. Check that out. There was tons if discussion in early 2011.

[imdeng]

Congratulations SeattLet - you are first one cribbing about getting your GC too quickly :-)

I don't know if any of us *know* where the numbers are coming from. They do have a decent idea of what the future demand pattern is - and if they feel fine about releasing some numbers early in the FY - then I guess I am pretty okay with it. My personal feel is that they are looking at EB2-ROW coming in slow, EB1 (perhaps, not likely) coming in a little slow and FB likely to give some numbers away to EB. It really doesn't matter anyway though - all numbers need to be tied together by the end of the FY - so any imbalance being created right now will get corrected in Summer 2014.

Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

[Jagan01]

I can't wait for the next demand data!

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

[cantpickaname]

The only thing uscis is good at : not releasing useful data.

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

[KinneraK]

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.

Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

[qesehmk]

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.

Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

[MrIndia]

Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards last week and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010, they have applied 485 when the dates were current in 2012.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

p.s Modified the post in bold

[primus]

My friend's PD was Sep 2013 in EB1 and he got GC approved in first week of Nov.

Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

[KinneraK]

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.

Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

[KinneraK]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

[Kanmani]

Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

KinneraK,

YES, H1 is valid until its validity date even if the I-485 is denied/ I-140 revoked by employer/ I-140 cancelled for fraud. Once approved H1 approval becomes independent from the respective I-140. You can transfer H1 from Emp A to Emp B ..... with a valid I-140.

Even after the denial of I-485, the I-140 is still valid provided the petition is not revoked or cancelled.

[qesehmk]

Kinnera, yes that is what I am saying.

Kanmani explained it even further saying that a denied 485 is just that. It doesn't invalidate I-140 nor H1.

p.s. - Not related to your situation but purely for theoretical discussion - Kanmani's point is technically perfect given that 485 is the beneficiary's thing vs I-140 and H1 are employer petitions. So if a person's 485 is denied without USCIS finding any fault with the underlying I-140 - s/he can reapply after addressing the reason why 485 was denied.

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

[venkat]

Sorry if this is late news

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory

[primus]

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

Hi KinneraK,

Do you mind sharing the affidavit template? And when did you apply for 485 and what is your PD?

[willywonka]

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

Do you expect the overall EB2I inventory in January to be higher than that of what the 10/01/2013 inventory shows ? Or would it be lower?

[Jagan01]

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

[vizcard]

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

[Jagan01]

I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

[vizcard]

Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...13%20Final.pdf

[Jagan01]

Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...13%20Final.pdf

Viz,

January 2013 inventory is the closest one to Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The visa bulletin of Feb 2013 would have been published around Jan 10, 2013 and hence January 2013 inventory is the best reference point.

The link you provided is the exact link that I was talking about. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

My point is that according to Jan 2013 inventory there were 550 applications before SEP 2004 which was the date for EB2I in Feb bulletin.

The inventory before Sep 2004 was very low yet the dates did not move ahead. I was just trying to point out that your statement "If inventory was that low then dates should move ahead" is not necessarily true. It has been proven in past that if CO thinks that porting will consume the monthly allocations then dates wont move ahead even if the inventory was 500 or 400 etc.

[willywonka]

Jagan,
If the cumulative inventory before Jan 2009 in fact turns out to be about 10-11k like you said, it will be fantastic. I surely hope it will be so.

On a different note, do you guys have any information about how the Perm processing is going to go this FY ? Can we expect it to continue at the pace it had been in the past six months or is there any reason for it to pickup some speed ?

[veni001]

2013-Q4 PERM Data Released.

FY-2013 Summary:
Total:44,152
Certified:35,203
Den/Withd:8,949 20.3%
INDIA:20,930 59.5%
CHINA:2,135
MEXICO:718
PHIL:928
ROW:10,492 29.8%

IND account for 59.5% of total PERM approvals in 2013.
Total ROW approvals dropped below 30%

[vizcard]

Viz,

January 2013 inventory is the closest one to Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The visa bulletin of Feb 2013 would have been published around Jan 10, 2013 and hence January 2013 inventory is the best reference point.

The link you provided is the exact link that I was talking about. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

My point is that according to Jan 2013 inventory there were 550 applications before SEP 2004 which was the date for EB2I in Feb bulletin.

The inventory before Sep 2004 was very low yet the dates did not move ahead. I was just trying to point out that your statement "If inventory was that low then dates should move ahead" is not necessarily true. It has been proven in past that if CO thinks that porting will consume the monthly allocations then dates wont move ahead even if the inventory was 500 or 400 etc.

Then why did CO move the dates so aggressively in 2011?

[Jagan01]

Then why did CO move the dates so aggressively in 2011?

Viz,

I do not think its of any point continuing this further. Everyone knows the reason the dates moved so aggressively in 2011. I do not know why you want to jump to that as it is tangential to the discussion. We do not have that kind of situation where the entire inventory "Until the current date of Nov 2013" is low.

In my original discussion I had mentioned about inventory up until Jan 2008 and Jan 2009. That is very very very different from overall inventory.

[zztopfan]

I sure hope this turns out to be case of conservative lawyer speak. I would be so disappointed if the CO dates do not touch 2009 by end of FY 2014.

11/27/2013: India EB-2 Number Became Unavailable Effective 11/20/2013 for November Visa Bulletin Pending Cases

AILA reports that no additional EB-2 numbers was allocated for EB-2 India for I-485 adjudications in November 2013. This confirms reports in immigration tracking discussion board. Reportedly, Indian EB-2 demand was so unprecedented that State Department received Indian EB-2 visa number requests about 150 per day between November 10 through November 20, causing its action to stop releasing any numbers effective 11/20/2013. Reportedly, State Department allocated 15,000 EB-2 visas for Indians in August and September alone using preadjudicated EB-485 cases. A lot of these cases are reportedly Indian EB-3 cases which had been upgraded to EB-2.
At this point, no firm predication can be made, but reportedly there is some possibility that Indian EB-2 may return to August 2008 cut-off date in August or September 2014, meanwhile the worldwide EB-3 can move backward before the end of FY 2014 if demand increases next year.