2010 PERM APPROVALS Discussion

[kd2008]

Please see new PERM data till 9/30/2010 here:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/disclosure.cfm

I don't know how to handle mdb files. I simply tried opening it with excel. It only opened partial file till application filing date of 3/3/2010/ (This is the middle julian date in the case #). I was surprised to see 12845 approvals for applications filed before 12/31/2008.

51267 approvals for applications filed before 12/31/2009. So 51267-12845 = 38422 approvals in 2009

Again this includes all countries and EB2+EB3, certified+certified expired.

Because of the partial file, I cannot determine number of approvals for cases filed from 1/1/2010 to 9/30/2010.

[qesehmk]

KD thanks a ton! Welcome.

I will check the data, put it in our model and respond by tomorrow.

Please see new PERM data till 9/30/2010 here:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/disclosure.cfm

I don't know how to handle mdb files. I simply tried opening it with excel. It only opened partial file till application filing date of 3/3/2010/ (This is the middle julian date in the case #). I was surprised to see 12845 approvals for applications filed before 12/31/2008.

51267 approvals for applications filed before 12/31/2009. So 51267-12845 = 38422 approvals in 2009

Again this includes all countries and EB2+EB3, certified+certified expired.

Because of the partial file, I cannot determine number of approvals for cases filed from 1/1/2010 to 9/30/2010.

[leo07]

There are about 3000 ( I+C) cases with 05+06+07+08 Case numbers. Can we consider them all as Eb3->Eb2 Upgrade cases?

[kd2008]

That would not be correct Leo! This database does not tell you what the first time filing date was of the person who filed for the second time. So the numbers from 2005 to 2008 are truly to be counted. Most of them might port, but their filing dates will be in 2008-2010.

[leo07]

Thanks kd2008. I thought when they upgrade they'd get the same number.

[qesehmk]

Guys,

Here is some great news.

The 2010 PERM data is available (Thanks to KD for the news).

The summary conclusion is that in FY 2010 expedited PERM approvals helped ROW EB2 consumer almost 21K more labors than the model we had predicted last year. (Those old timers might remember we were projecting 35-51K total SOFAD). This single handedly killed EB2 prospects in 2010. That's exactly what we said 3 months back when the dates didn't move far enough as per our model.

In FY 2011 there won't be as much PERM backlog for ROW. At max it is 50% of 2010. So we should expect 10K more from ROW fall-across. Last years SOFAD was approximately 29K. If we adjust for the FB spillover which is absent this year, next years total spillover should be 29K - 6.7K + 10.5K = 33K. This should CERTAINLY move EB2 data to Jun 2007.

Even better news is for EB2 IC waiting to file 485. The total number of such people is about 27K.(Refer to 2008/09/10 labor data and multiply certified by 2.2). This will be easily cleared in FY2012. Which means the entire EB2 backlog until Oct 2010 will be cleared by Sep 2012.

Stay tuned for further details ... for now adios.

[Pundit Arjun]

Guys,

Here is some great news.

The 2010 PERM data is available (Thanks to KD for the news).

The summary conclusion is that in FY 2010 expedited PERM approvals helped ROW EB2 consumer almost 21K more labors than the model we had predicted last year. (Those old timers might remember we were projecting 35-51K total SOFAD). This single handedly killed EB2 prospects in 2010. That's exactly what we said 3 months back when the dates didn't move far enough as per our model.

In FY 2011 there won't be as much PERM backlog for ROW. At max it is 50% of 2010. So we should expect 10K more from ROW fall-across. Last years SOFAD was approximately 29K. If we adjust for the FB spillover which is absent this year, next years total spillover should be 29K - 6.7K + 10.5K = 33K. This should CERTAINLY move EB2 data to Jun 2007.

Even better news is for EB2 IC waiting to file 485. The total number of such people is about 27K.(Refer to 2008/09/10 labor data and multiply certified by 2.2). This will be easily cleared in FY2012. Which means the entire EB2 backlog until Oct 2010 will be cleared by Sep 2012.

Stay tuned for further details ... for now adios.

Wow, Really glad to hear this

[kd2008]

Guys,

Here is some great news.

The 2010 PERM data is available (Thanks to KD for the news).

The summary conclusion is that in FY 2010 expedited PERM approvals helped ROW EB2 consumer almost 21K more labors than the model we had predicted last year. (Those old timers might remember we were projecting 35-51K total SOFAD). This single handedly killed EB2 prospects in 2010. That's exactly what we said 3 months back when the dates didn't move far enough as per our model.

In FY 2011 there won't be as much PERM backlog for ROW. At max it is 50% of 2010. So we should expect 10K more from ROW fall-across. Last years SOFAD was approximately 29K. If we adjust for the FB spillover which is absent this year, next years total spillover should be 29K - 6.7K + 10.5K = 33K. This should CERTAINLY move EB2 data to Jun 2007.

Even better news is for EB2 IC waiting to file 485. The total number of such people is about 27K.(Refer to 2008/09/10 labor data and multiply certified by 2.2). This will be easily cleared in FY2012. Which means the entire EB2 backlog until Oct 2010 will be cleared by Sep 2012.

Stay tuned for further details ... for now adios.

27K number seems awfully small. Since the start of 2008, its better to assume 70% EB2 and 30% EB3 split. Moreover, you need to consider certified+certified-expired in your calculations and not just certified. In case you have done these things, my apologies.

[qesehmk]

It does. Why would you consider certified expired as well? I haven't included them.

Regarding the split, it is certainly true about ROW (60-40) but not sure about India China.

27K number seems awfully small. Since the start of 2008, its better to assume 70% EB2 and 30% EB3 split. Moreover, you need to consider certified+certified-expired in your calculations and not just certified. In case you have done these things, my apologies.

[kd2008]

Certified expired cases merely mean that the cases were certified 6 or more months ago. That's it. You can verify this by looking at their approval dates. They should be counted.

I won't be surprised if your estimates go horribly wrong because of this mistake.

[leo07]

I agree with KD, much safer to include certified-expired. Withdrawn/Denied/Blanks can be unchecked in the filter.
wow...there are 37580 certified-expired cases, more than the certified, actually!!!

Q bhai....what's your model telling us now with 37.5 k more in line?

[qesehmk]

that will throw us off my friend... can somebody pls find out where certified-expired is explained.

Certified expired cases merely mean that the cases were certified 6 or more months ago. That's it. You can verify this by looking at their approval dates. They should be counted.

I won't be surprised if your estimates go horribly wrong because of this mistake.

I agree with KD, much safer to include certified-expired. Withdrawn/Denied/Blanks can be unchecked in the filter.
wow...there are 37580 certified-expired cases, more than the certified, actually!!!

Q bhai....what's your model telling us now with 37.5 k more in line?

[TeddyKoochu]

that will throw us off my friend... can somebody pls find out where certified-expired is explained.

Q / Leo / KD2008 here is what I could find out, Looks like these won't count !
"There is a 6 months time to file 140 after the PERM is Certified. If 140 is not filed within that time, the PERM will expire and the status becomes Certified- expired."

[kd2008]

I don't know the answer. Nothing on DOL's website. So nobody had a clue I guess. But this might help.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...-released.html

Read post # 10.

Quoting. "Certified expired means they have passed 6 months from approval. These databases is not updated every day I guess. my case was showing as certified expired because when they run report my case was already 6 months older than approval date."

Teddy I think you are incorrect. DOL has no info if a I-140 was filed. Why would they care?

[leo07]

Yes, I don't think DOL cares to update or CIS cares to update DOL with 140 application details. CIS defintiely verifies that the PERM is valid, but not sure if anyone cares to fix the status in DB.

But, I'm sure there's certain percentage of cases that really has expired PERM, I doubt that number will be as high as 37000

[vedu]

We need to consider both certified and certified-expired cases. If you sort the cases in the latest report based on the decision date, you will notice that all the cases 6 months prior to publication of the report are designated as "Certified-expired", if not "denied" or "Withdrawn". Same is true for all the previous reports.

[leo07]

35862 > $50000 per year
74 > $900 per week
171 > $3000 per week
12949 > $25 per hour
132 > $1800 per Bi weekly

Total = 49320 likely EB2...it must be definitely less than the number I quoted. I know it's not perfect, but a more reasonable number than 71K

Basically, I assumed the RHS number to be the min wage for EB2

[TeddyKoochu]

I don't know the answer. Nothing on DOL's website. So nobody had a clue I guess. But this might help.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...-released.html

Read post # 10.

Quoting. "Certified expired means they have passed 6 months from approval. These databases is not updated every day I guess. my case was showing as certified expired because when they run report my case was already 6 months older than approval date."

Teddy I think you are incorrect. DOL has no info if a I-140 was filed. Why would they care?

Yes, I don't think DOL cares to update or CIS cares to update DOL with 140 application details. CIS defintiely verifies that the PERM is valid, but not sure if anyone cares to fix the status in DB.

But, I'm sure there's certain percentage of cases that really has expired PERM, I doubt that number will be as high as 37000

We need to consider both certified and certified-expired cases. If you sort the cases in the latest report based on the decision date, you will notice that all the cases 6 months prior to publication of the report are designated as "Certified-expired", if not "denied" or "Withdrawn". Same is true for all the previous reports.

Guys I think you are correct we will have to count the certified expired.

[leo07]

If we know for sure a min wage for EB2 that'll help in moving forward

[qesehmk]

Guys I think you are correct we will have to count the certified expired.

Teddy and others ... if we include certified expired then in 2010 FY approx 70K labors were approved which translates to overall 154K 485 demand and at least 49K EB2ROW demand. That doesn';t make sense given that we know ROW was net contributor to SOFAR rather than a consumer AND the current 485 and 140 pipelines for EB2ROW are almost empty (4-5K each).

We are missing something here.

[leo07]

some/most of ROW apps from 2008 Oct to 2010 Jan/Feb/March could already be out of the System. That is, they may have a visa number already allocated for them before October 1st 2010. right?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy and others ... if we include certified expired then in 2010 FY approx 70K labors were approved which translates to overall 154K 485 demand and at least 49K EB2ROW demand. That doesn';t make sense given that we know ROW was net contributor to SOFAR rather than a consumer AND the current 485 and 140 pipelines for EB2ROW are almost empty (4-5K each).

We are missing something here.

some/most of ROW apps from 2008 Oct to 2010 Jan/Feb/March could already be out of the System. That is, they may have a visa number already allocated for them before October 1st 2010. right?

Guys lets reason it out this way, assume that indeed certified expired need to be counted. Now atleast 20% the cases may have led to an I140 that is denied so this will introduce a factor of .8 and for row I believe that EB2-EB3 is 50-50 so another factor of .5. So if we extrapolate it becomes .8*.5 * 49K ~ 19.6K. Now I believe 2/3rds of these folks got I485 approved in 2010 itself we have 1/3rd remaining. Q I believe that EB3-EB2 was not separated out in the total, Leo I believe you are right most of these folks got approved in FY2010 and as Q rightly says there were around 10K extra approvals which also seems correct. Please comment.

[vedu]

Guys lets reason it out this way, assume that indeed certified expired need to be counted. Now atleast 20% the cases may have led to an I140 that is denied so this will introduce a factor of .8 and for row I believe that EB2-EB3 is 50-50 so another factor of .5. So if we extrapolate it becomes .8*.5 * 49K ~ 19.6K. Now I believe 2/3rds of these folks got I485 approved in 2010 itself we have 1/3rd remaining. Q I believe that EB3-EB2 was not separated out in the total, Leo I believe you are right most of these folks got approved in FY2010 and as Q rightly says there were around 10K extra approvals which also seems correct. Please comment.

Teddy,

You also need to add a percentage factor for those cases in which the applicants couldn't file I-140 applications within 6 months of labor approval for various reasons, thus wasting their approved labor. In other words, you need to add a reduction factor for truly "Certified-expired" cases that we won't be able to figure out from this report.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

You also need to add a percentage factor for those cases in which the applicants couldn't file I-140 applications within 6 months of labor approval for various reasons, thus wasting their approved labor. In other words, you need to add a reduction factor for truly "Certified-expired" cases that we won't be able to figure out from this report.

Vedu, thanks the 80% factor was out of my gut feeling no calculations here I intended to factor in both denials and cases wherein people could not file the I140 due to various reasons like employer refusal or employee moving on. I feel that anything higher than 20% maybe higher. Please critique advise.

[leo07]

vedu, I gave a thought about that. However, I think such genuine certified-expired cases would be less than 2%. IMHO, we can ignore that, 140 denials would automatically include such cases.

Also, is it really the case that 20% of I-140 cases are denied? where did we get that number?

Teddy,

You also need to add a percentage factor for those cases in which the applicants couldn't file I-140 applications within 6 months of labor approval for various reasons, thus wasting their approved labor. In other words, you need to add a reduction factor for truly "Certified-expired" cases that we won't be able to figure out from this report.