EB3 to EB2 Portings or Conversions

[TeddyKoochu]

Dec 2009 Inventory - 40022 (Assume 750, quarterly allocation was used from Oct to Dec)
Oct 2010 Inventory - 24254.

The difference is ~ 16K. India allocation was 20K per the AILA report.

So PD porting + PWMB is ~ 4.5K (Taking into account oct to Dec offset).

I believe PD porting for india was ~4K last year.

Friends please review.

[TeddyKoochu]

Dec 2009 Inventory - 40022 (Assume 750, quarterly allocation was used from Oct to Dec)
Oct 2010 Inventory - 24254.

The difference is ~ 16K. India allocation was 20K per the AILA report.

So PD porting + PWMB is ~ 4.5K (Taking into account oct to Dec offset).

I believe PD porting for india was ~4K last year.

Friends please review.

The EB3-I Inventory in Aug 2010 was 62K (This time EB3-I was "U") and currently it is 56K. So the reduction is ~ 6K, out of which 3K is the cap and ~3k is the factors that you listed.
Another way of confirming that PD porting was 3-4K only.

[qesehmk]

I just looked at trackitt today and here is what I found:
12 cases of EB2I approved w PD prior to Jun 05. (A)
29 cases of EB2I approved in total. (B)

(A) is probably porting. There are very few cases if at all prior to Jun 05 for EB2I.

So this is quite telling.... EB2I is going to have to relinquish 40% of its quota to portings. Currently our model only assumes 15% or so.

Probably we will know better in next couple of months since 20-25 days of data is could have significant noise.

[TeddyKoochu]

I just looked at trackitt today and here is what I found:
12 cases of EB2I approved w PD prior to Jun 05. (A)
29 cases of EB2I approved in total. (B)

(A) is probably porting. There are very few cases if at all prior to Jun 05 for EB2I.

So this is quite telling.... EB2I is going to have to relinquish 40% of its quota to portings. Currently our model only assumes 15% or so.

Probably we will know better in next couple of months since 20-25 days of data is could have significant noise.

Thanks Q; I researched little bit further into this. I probably added an additional filter to say that the filing date is in 2009 and 2010. This leaves me with 7 cases so the remaining ones are folks who had a delayed approval due to RFE's or other reasons. Now if we dwell further into these 7 cases 3 of them are for dependants some with pretty old PD's. There is however 1 case which shows approved as EB3 but is EB2 (PD 2003 it’s in the comments. Now if we extrapolate this to say 6 it will still fit onto the 20% range so your old estimate looks good. Also good to note that after the NVC analysis your prediction for EB2 moved ahead by a month. I do agree that we should keep a close watch on PD porting; recently I read a case wherein the I140 was approved in 2 days. Also note that there are a significant number of Eb2 ROW approvals on Trackitt while very few EB1's still early days though, however I feel that that Trackitt EB1 representation is not good.

[formailer]

Is there a limit as to how many EB3 can be ported to EB2

[qesehmk]

no there is no limit.

Is there a limit as to how many EB3 can be ported to EB2

gcseeker yes eb3 conversions is a significant risk for eb2.

[leo07]

TeddyK,
Thanks for analysis again. I agree with you. Things are likely to even out, all we can hope/wish is that they don't turn worse.

Again, porting will have the blessings of AILA as it's a steady source of income for these folks. I also think that 90-95% of people who port will be genuine cases. People who got into EB3 through "Luck" will not dare to push the "Luck" again. So, I don't have hard feelings for porting at all.

[gcseeker]

Leo

I would disagree on 90-95% EB3 porting being genuine cases,on the contrary 30-40% might be genuine. USCIS did not bother to close many major loopholes before the fiasco of 2007.

Example .Pre Substituted Labour abuse which was rampant at that time.Many who came fresh off the boat bought pre approved labours with PD dates as old as 2001 in 2007 itself .

Anywaz you are right on one point though. It is an immense source of income for both AILA and USCIS. Porting costs upto 5000-8000 per app.

It is just the way this system is built . EB3 porting is happening big time and will weight down EB2 dates for atleast 2 yrs .

TeddyK,
Thanks for analysis again. I agree with you. Things are likely to even out, all we can hope/wish is that they don't turn worse.

Again, porting will have the blessings of AILA as it's a steady source of income for these folks. I also think that 90-95% of people who port will be genuine cases. People who got into EB3 through "Luck" will not dare to push the "Luck" again. So, I don't have hard feelings for porting at all.

[hoping4thebest]

Hi q and other folks who are leading this thread,

Have been following your work for several months..kudos to you for unraveling the EB calculations.
I recently read on some publication (I think it was an attorney blog/website) that there are around 60,000 pending applications for porting from EB3 to EB2.
Is your assumption of 4k to 5K porting for 2011 based on the 1) previous history and 2) speed with which the USCIS will actually adjudicate these porting applications thereby making some EB3 folks eligible for EB2?

[Spectator]

I recently read on some publication (I think it was an attorney blog/website) that there are around 60,000 pending applications for porting from EB3 to EB2.

There seems to be some confusion about this, as the statement was not very well articulated.

The quote is from AILA DC Chapter Meeting with Charles Oppenheim, September 22, 2010 http://www.immigration-information.c...oppenheim.html

EB‐2, India. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a week or so). This is mainly a result of EB‐3 Indian applicants (there are approximately 60,000 pending cases) “porting” their priority dates into the EB‐2 category and are thus taking visa numbers.

It is not saying that 60,000 EB3-I are porting to EB2 - rather it is saying that out of a total number of 60,000 EB3-I cases that are pending, some people are porting to EB2.

On Sept 22, 2010, the Demand data for October 2010 showed 60,050 EB3-I cases.

Clearly not everybody is porting from EB3-I to EB2, which is what your statement "around 60,000 pending applications for porting from EB3 to EB2" would imply.

It then becomes a guess as to how many porting cases there are, since no official figures have been released.

That is certainly the situation as I see it.

[hoping4thebest]

Thanks for the clarification and sorry for wrongly interpreting a vague statement.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the clarification and sorry for wrongly interpreting a vague statement.

Glad that helped.

No need to be sorry - it was appallingly worded and it is not surprising that many people have interpreted it the wrong way. I hope you didn't think I was criticizing you, because I wasn't.

On behalf of Q, welcome to the forum and I hope you continue to post.

[vikram2101]

If there were no porting then January bulletin would certainly have movement. Given that there is 4K annual porting and conservatively assumign that 50% is India, then that plus backlog through May 06 is 3K which is equivalent to annual EB2I max allocation. So unfortunately you could very well be in a long wait unfortunately.

I am sorry to say this. However if Qly spillover is applied this year then it could be a matter of 2-3 months from now. Good luck!

Q, did Quarterly spillover happen in 2009-2010 ? And ff they do apply it this time, would it be in December or January?

[qesehmk]

Q, did Quarterly spillover happen in 2009-2010 ? And ff they do apply it this time, would it be in December or January?

Vikram, the spillover as we call it (i.e. within category and across category) didn't happen in 09-10 until Jun 2010. That is the reason why dates didn't progress until that time.

Unfortunately we should expect the same in 2010-11. That's why for most people who are borderline it still might mean 1 year wait because they are only going to apply monthly quota i.e. approx 250 for EB2I and China as well. For EB2I especially thats a hard hit because EB2I alone will see at least same amount of EB3->2 conversion which means the dates will not progress at all until Jun 2010.

If the dates progress then that means either A) conversions are not happening. OR B) Qly spillover is happening. OR C) Both A and B.

However as I said the chances that dates will NOT move until Jun 2010 are quite high (if past behavior is indication of future behavior!).

[vikram2101]

Vikram, the spillover as we call it (i.e. within category and across category) didn't happen in 09-10 until Jun 2010. That is the reason why dates didn't progress until that time.

Unfortunately we should expect the same in 2010-11. That's why for most people who are borderline it still might mean 1 year wait because they are only going to apply monthly quota i.e. approx 250 for EB2I and China as well. For EB2I especially thats a hard hit because EB2I alone will see at least same amount of EB3->2 conversion which means the dates will not progress at all until Jun 2010.

If the dates progress then that means either A) conversions are not happening. OR B) Qly spillover is happening. OR C) Both A and B.

However as I said the chances that dates will NOT move until Jun 2010 are quite high (if past behavior is indication of future behavior!).

Thanks Q! just need to find a way take my mind off the GC stuff for another 6-8 months.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q! just need to find a way take my mind off the GC stuff for another 6-8 months.

It will come someday. But we need to keep doing what we are doing and what we ought to do regardless..!!

[baba2s]

Q, check this out

http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/192/31/

This is the same guy who couple of months back published the VB 12 hours before the DOS. His information looks correct.

"It is also worth noting that worldwide, there were almost 156,157 EB numbers available for FY 2010 and this year FY 2011 (October 1, 2010 to September 30, 2011), there will be only 140,000 EB numbers, due to the statutory scheme by which numbers are allocated and unused numbers are allowed to be freed up for worldwide use during the last quarter of the year."

for FY2010 no FB spillover . total EB # 140,000.
no quarterly spillover. looks like no EB2-I movement till July2011.
For oct and nov, Eb2-I already used 700 visa and those were not in demand... means maximum of them are porting from eb3->eb2

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, check this out

http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/192/31/

This is the same guy who couple of months back published the VB 12 hours before the DOS. His information looks correct.

"It is also worth noting that worldwide, there were almost 156,157 EB numbers available for FY 2010 and this year FY 2011 (October 1, 2010 to September 30, 2011), there will be only 140,000 EB numbers, due to the statutory scheme by which numbers are allocated and unused numbers are allowed to be freed up for worldwide use during the last quarter of the year."

for FY2010 no FB spillover . total EB # 140,000.
no quarterly spillover. looks like no EB2-I movement till July2011.
For oct and nov, Eb2-I already used 700 visa and those were not in demand... means maximum of them are porting from eb3->eb2

Guys nothing new in here, EB2 I/C will most likely have to wait till the spillover season starts in Jul 2011 there will be good movement atleast equal to last Year so do not worry, we just need to be patient. for Eb2 I/C folks except if the PD is very close like in May it’s time to take a chill pill because the annual allocation is not even enough to take care of PD porting or older applications

[qesehmk]

Guys nothing new in here, EB2 I/C will most likely have to wait till the spillover season starts in Jul 2011 there will be good movement atleast equal to last Year so do not worry, we just need to be patient. for Eb2 I/C folks except if the PD is very close like in May it’s time to take a chill pill because the annual allocation is not even enough to take care of PD porting or older applications

Baba thanks!

Teddy is right. Nothing new here. However worth noting the fact that porting is consuming all the demand and no possibility of Qly spillover. Exactly what I said in my last few posts.

It is unfortunate for borderline EB2 because that means they need to be prepared for wait until June/Jul 11.

[Spectator]

I'm not convinced we can deduce that Porting is using up the numbers from the statements in the article, although that would make much more sense.

The actual quote says:

The disappointing news is that the projections for EB2 for India born applicants will not advance for several months. For the months of October and November 2010, the Department of State has used 700 EB2 numbers and that does not count the demand for USCIS for EB2 numbers.

To take the statement as constructed, if it is not including demand from USCIS, that is effectively saying the demand was from Consular Processing.

Very few, if any, Porting cases would come from CP - they would almost exclusively be from AOS and therefore be classified under demand from USCIS.

Alternatively, you can argue that the only NEW demand for EB2-I cases from USCIS that would be Current (excluding very few DO cases) would be from Porting cases and the wording seems to rule those out as being included in the 700 figure.

At best, it is an extremely woolly statement.

[qesehmk]

yank

thanks. the bulletin is as expected. They don't see need to retrogress EB2 is a good sign that conversions are not flooding in.

Look how EB3 I is progressing however 2-3 weeks per month is a terrific progress. But given where the date is it is not surprising since the volume is 8K per year in 2002. The progress is 1/2 year per year (including conversions). So that is 4K per year consumption. So about 1K pre 2003 conversions. Extrapolating over entire EB3 population the conversions would be about 4-6K MAX. So EB2I guys stay put until Jun. And then its going to be your lucky day!

p.s. Watch out for NVC inventory that came out today http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Thanks Q for starting this blog. Your input and analysis are valuable. I will not ask ke mera number kab aayega -

Dec Visa Bulletin is out.

Update for the future months from the bulletin:

Employment Second:

India: no movement

[qesehmk]

A few quick observations:
1. The demand data doesnt include cases beyond Mar 8 2007, implies the cases were applied visa numbers as soon as they became current. So expect the same for whoever next becomes current.
2. The demand for EB2 is ~10K ... so its very much possible that the dates could move much ahead of that in Sep.
3. Also based on demand for EB2 our predictions are on track and it seems we all are doing kumbaya as far as Jun 2007 is concerned for Aug 2007.
4. Kudos to Spec for pointing out the EB3 reduction. In reality the conversion is more .... but i think its just not reflected in the data.
5. No news from source yet. Lets wait a few more hours.

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Latest demand data says "Demand Data Used in the Determination of the August 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates"
Does this mean they have already made the decision for Aug VB ? YOU BETCHA
May be we can see the bulletin today. NOT SO SURE.

If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007 for Aug 2011.

Agree here. Could be upto first week of Jul 2007. But that's a minor difference.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your analysis and explanations.

I look forward to hearing more news!

A few quick observations:
1. The demand data doesnt include cases upto Mar 8 2007, implies the cases were applied visa numbers as soon as they became current. So expect the same for whoever next becomes current.
2. The demand for EB2 is ~10K ... so its very much possible that the dates could move much ahead of that in Sep.
3. Also based on demand for EB2 our predictions are on track and it seems we all are doing kumbaya as far as Jun 2007 is concerned for Aug 2007.
4. Kudos to Spec for pointing out the EB3 reduction. In reality the conversion is more .... but i think its just not reflected in the data.
5. No news from source yet. Lets wait a few more hours.






Agree here. Could be upto first week of Jul 2007. But that's a minor difference.

[iksingh]

I recently got my PERM approved with following job description. I have Bachelor degree from India and 5 yrs. exp from India and 3 yr exp in US. Do I qualify for eb3 to Eb2 conversion. If yes, how. I heard if I do a one year diploma from US this may qualify me. Please help.

ADDENDUM
SECTION D.b.5: Special Requirements
1) Bachelor's degree (U.S. equivalent degree or foreign 3-year Bachelor's degree acceptable) in any field. Will
accept educational evaluation prepared by a qualified credential evaluation service;(2) skill-sets as follows: VS
Studio 2003 and 2005, SQL Server 2005 and 2000, MS Access, C# 1.0/1/1, VB.Net, ADO.NET, ASP.NET 2.0,
AJAX, Atlas, MS Visio, JavaScript, HTML, XML, XSL, ASP.NET 1.0/2.0/3.0, Web Services, HTML Reports,
UML designs, N-Unit, Crystal Reports 8.0, T-SQL, N-Unit. Applicants will be tested for their programming
skill-sets, and (3) Will also accept any suitable combination of education, training or experience.

[jackbrown_890]

IKsingh.
I see u posted same question in cpl of threads,,
You will find information on porting if you go thru few threads/posts here.
If you have a company lawyer, talk to your lawyer and see if he/she suggests.
Good luck