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Thread: Gold

  1. #1

    Gold

    On a different topic - what just happened with Gold today? Any financial guru out there who can help understand?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
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  2. #2
    I really don't get any logic behind gold prices...
    I usually check http://www.kitco.com/ Gold News.
    e.g. http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-18...Jobs-Data.html

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  3. #3
    I think people are manipulating gold prices for quick gains:
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how...lion-risk-free

  4. #4
    Very very interesting story on CDS !!!

    As per Gold - indeed something is not right. It has moved too violently and counter intuitively.
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgal View Post
    I think people are manipulating gold prices for quick gains:
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how...lion-risk-free
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #5
    I agree! I have no idea why gold is on such a roller-coaster ride. Also, the miners aren't as high as I think they should be, although they're climbing steadily over the last week. Someone very rich is gaming this system, but I'm still long gold and silver (and natural gas).

  6. #6
    Calgal - long gold i am not so sure. Silver makes sense. But natural gas? Seriously? I have been hearing that there is a glut of Natural Gas. So what's the rationale being long there?
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgal View Post
    I agree! I have no idea why gold is on such a roller-coaster ride. Also, the miners aren't as high as I think they should be, although they're climbing steadily over the last week. Someone very rich is gaming this system, but I'm still long gold and silver (and natural gas).
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #7
    Hi Q,

    I agree, the gains to be made are more in silver, but I think precious metals will see gains across the board. I've been investing in natural gas stocks for the past 5 years and they've been good to me (LNG in particular comes to mind). In my opinion, natural gas exports will keep the industry booming (no pun intended) and companies with permission and/or facilities to export will gain tremendously. What are your thoughts on this sector?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgal View Post
    Hi Q,

    I agree, the gains to be made are more in silver, but I think precious metals will see gains across the board. I've been investing in natural gas stocks for the past 5 years and they've been good to me (LNG in particular comes to mind). In my opinion, natural gas exports will keep the industry booming (no pun intended) and companies with permission and/or facilities to export will gain tremendously. What are your thoughts on this sector?
    Calgal - from investment perspective - I am really one of the worst investors. I tend to pick winners 80% of the time. But my remaining 20% more than wipe out gains in those 80%. So what I am going to say about energy and natural gas is to be taken with a very large grain of salt !!!!!

    I have read that stocks of the companies that are building natural gas infrastructure are going to be very lucrative. e.g. EPD. I tried trading that - made paltry profits and then got out. I couldn't say I don't have patience (although generally that is a true statement). What I do not know is - how much patience is worth it. It seems industries suddenly make a turn around. I don't think these "turn arounds" are always based on fundamentals. Sometimes they are manufactured and sometimes - it's mass psychology at play. So I really don't know.

    But if one needs to put any rationale - the current rationale we hear is that there is going to be a natural gas glut. The US is going to be self sufficient or near self sufficient in terms of energy largely thanks to natural gas. But I remember somewhere reading how the demand supply of energy in the world is razor thin. Thanks to recession - I believe - energy demand is relatively low - which i believe is creating an illusion of near term energy glut. But I do believe energy will continue to be a scarce commodity (like water in future) and the Saudis are too shrewd to know where to keep the oil prices to prevent any other energy source from becoming viable. Now - their game has been so far successful - except in a post 911 world - there is a very strong desire in the US to go beyond oil. That desire is creating innovation in solar and natural gas (all kinds of gas).

    Anyway ... but as far as natural gas future goes - it is only as bright as oil prices. Low oil prices will kill other energy alternatives by making them economically not viable. There already is talk about gas going below 3 dollars per gallon. If that sustains long enough - that would be enough to kill the keystone pipeline.

    To be honest - this whole thing is so complex - i really have no position - what to make of natural gas. Perhaps we should just follow buffett. But that too generally - by the time becomes a news - is already too old for us to make any money of it !!!!

    That's my 2 cents Calgal. What do you think?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #9
    Hi Q,

    Thanks for the perspective! I'm no hedge fund manager myself, but LNG has been on the rise for the last 5 years. It's been quite an incredible climb, and I think it's because Cheniere has added liquification capabilities to its Sabine Pass station. Cheniere is adding to its export capabilities, and I think this will help the stock climb further. While internally within the US, natural gas isn't really used a lot, a lot of Asian countries (India included!) use natural gas quite extensively. India has been importing large quantities, and it's predicted that imports will exceed domestic production by 2014. The glut of natural gas in the US can then be exported to these countries that rely heavily on natural gas. I think to some extent natural gas prices can be depressed by the price of oil, but not too significantly. Natural gas uses are quite different from petroleum. Also, while oil prices might dip in the US, they may not follow suit in other (Asian) nations that use natural gas extensively. So that's my reasoning for a bright future for natural gas.


    All of this with the disclaimer that I have no formal financial education, and should be taken with a pinch of salt!

  10. #10
    Calgal, Thanks. I am also just a regular guy trying to understand these things. I am totally confused with two things:
    1. How are LNG and CQP related? CQP is supposedly 100% owner of sabine pass project. Are they wholly owned by LNG?
    2. LNG's losses are bigger than its revenues. So how come people have so much faith in the stock?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #11
    Hi Q,

    1. It seems like LNG owns CQP. This article states that CQP is just a pass-through partnership, while LNG is a profit-seeking company. So CQP pays dividends and will probably be a safe investment since its business of collecting fees on people using its terminals will never dry up. LNG is the risky stock that's seen crazy growth (with some major peaks and troughs) over the last few years. It also doesn't pay dividends.

    Here is a nicer picture of how CQP ties into LNG:
    6618191-13794154262856271-Richard-Berger_origin.jpg
    Source article


    2. I think the stock price of LNG is based on future growth. LNG has a couple of projects in its pipeline, and its strategically important Corpus Christi project should pay off soon. Cheniere plans to start exporting natural gas in 2015, which should drive the stock price up. Another thing that could happen is a buyout - maybe a major player will invest in natural gas.

    You're right though, LNG is in the red, and the stock price seems to be based on future promise.

    There's a ton of risk involved in the stock, but I think in the very long term, natural gas prices and exports from the US will rise. It's been a wild ride with LNG, but worth the ups and downs (so far!).

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