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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

  1. #3301
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    New York
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    1,564
    Quote Originally Posted by Gcsep09 View Post
    I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
    1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
    2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
    3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
    Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
    Estimate on available visas:
    Reg quota: 3k
    EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
    FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
    4K spill over--what are the possiblities
    Total:
    3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

    what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?
    I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover

  2. #3302
    What about Eb1, Eb4, Eb5 categories any spillovers from those
    and worst case scenario for FB spillover other than 0.

  3. #3303
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    Join Date
    May 2011
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    Bay Area
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    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover
    Why would EB1 not give anything?

  4. #3304

    Angry Visas for 2013 run out

    Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year!

    If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013?


    U.S. Department of Homeland Security
    P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
    TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
    MESQUITE,TX 75185

    U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
    Wednesday, September 18, 2013

    Emailed to ###################

    Dear ************:

    On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

    Caller indicated they are:
    -- Applicant or Petitioner

    Attorney Name:
    -- Information not available

    Case type:
    -- I485

    Filing date:
    -- 01/10/2012

    Receipt #:
    -- SRC-**********************

    Referral ID:
    ****************
    Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
    -- Information not available

    Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
    -- ***********

    Type of service requested:
    -- Outside Normal Processing Times


    The status of this service request is:

    The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

    XM1058
    -------------------------------
    Online Services
    We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
    * Using our Case Status Online tool;
    * Signing up for case status updates;
    * Checking processing times;
    * Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
    * Using our Office Locator;
    * Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
    * Downloading forms.

    Address Changes
    If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

    For More Information
    If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).
    TSC |-| PD - 03/27/08 |-| MD - 01/05/12 |-| RD - 01/07/12 |-| ND - 01/10/12 |-| Check Encashed - 01/12/12 |-| FP Appt Date - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/02/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 12/22/12 |-| RFE Received - June 14 |-| RFE responded - July 09 |- |RFE Status Change Online (LUD) - July 15|| 485 Approval notice - 12/11/13 |-| GC RD - TBD|

  5. #3305
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.
    Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

  6. #3306
    Quote Originally Posted by Maksimus View Post
    Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year!

    If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013?
    Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here, where I discuss this.

    It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

    Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.
    NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|

  7. #3307
    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

    How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.
    I think they'll stick to the 4 month processing time and perhaps even longer given how busy they'll have been in August and September. So, come Nov 1, I think fewer than 5% of first time filers will have been processed.

    A quick check on the trackitt tracker should give you an idea. compare the total number of I485 applied (RD or ND) in August 2013, and compare that to approvals in August or September 2013. I doubt there'll be more than a handful approved so far, although that number may go up in October.
    NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|

  8. #3308
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Dallas area
    Posts
    27

    Angry

    Quote Originally Posted by Maksimus View Post
    Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year!

    If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013?


    U.S. Department of Homeland Security
    P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
    TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
    MESQUITE,TX 75185

    U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
    Wednesday, September 18, 2013

    Emailed to ###################

    Dear ************:

    On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

    Caller indicated they are:
    -- Applicant or Petitioner

    Attorney Name:
    -- Information not available

    Case type:
    -- I485

    Filing date:
    -- 01/10/2012

    Receipt #:
    -- SRC-**********************

    Referral ID:
    ****************
    Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
    -- Information not available

    Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
    -- ***********

    Type of service requested:
    -- Outside Normal Processing Times


    The status of this service request is:

    The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

    XM1058
    -------------------------------
    Online Services
    We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
    * Using our Case Status Online tool;
    * Signing up for case status updates;
    * Checking processing times;
    * Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
    * Using our Office Locator;
    * Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
    * Downloading forms.

    Address Changes
    If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

    For More Information
    If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).
    That is frustrating!! I really hope that is not the case. I just received a response today to the SR that I had opened as well, but fortunately it did not have same message. I do not know whether they really need to do additional checks or if it is just a delay tactic, but below is the message I received:

    -----------------------------------
    U.S. Department of Homeland Security
    P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
    TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
    MESQUITE,TX 75185

    U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
    Wednesday, September 18, 2013

    Emailed to xxxxx@GMAIL.COM

    Dear xxxx xxxx:

    On 09/05/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

    Caller indicated they are:
    -- Applicant or Petitioner

    Attorney Name:
    -- Information not available

    Case type:
    -- I485

    Filing date:
    -- 02/15/2012

    Receipt #:
    -- SRC-12-901-xxxxx

    Referral ID:
    xxxxxxxx
    Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
    -- Information not available

    Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
    -- xxxxx

    Type of service requested:
    -- Outside Normal Processing Times


    The status of this service request is:

    We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We had to perform an additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently under review. You should receive a decision or notice of further action within 90 days.

    XM1317

    If you have any further questions, please call the National Customer Service Center 1-800-375-5283.

    If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."
    -------------------------------

  9. #3309
    Gurus, pls help me understand the following....
    I got the response that my file is now with an adjudicating officer. But the concern is when I called last week L2 officer said my case is already pre-adj in June and my case is in background review again. Today I got the response that file is now with an adjudicating officer.
    Is adjudicating officer and immigration officer who approves and assign visa number are the same or different.
    I m confused and worried by reading the post about visa is over for 2013.
    Pd = march 2008, eb2 - I
    Thanks for u r time.

  10. #3310
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    1,564
    Quote Originally Posted by garihc27 View Post
    Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.
    Yes. U get separate receipt numbers for each form and for each applicant. So ur 485 and that for a dependent would have 2 diff receipt numbers.

  11. #3311
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Dallas area
    Posts
    27
    Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over?

    I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

  12. #3312
    Quote Originally Posted by pseudonym View Post
    Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over?

    I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.
    The visas might have been exhausted for this fiscal year. Good news is COD is still june 2008 for oct

  13. #3313
    Couple of more days will give some info.. still there r chances for current pds to get a number..

    I know when I say be patient, how easy to say..and how difficult it is for the one who actually feels the pain..

    All I can say keep up hope.. hope for the better..

  14. #3314
    Quote Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales View Post
    Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here, where I discuss this.

    It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

    Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.
    Thanks Pedro, for your words of encouragement! It gives me hope. Also another Trackitt user just spoke to an L2 officer who informed him/her that all visas have been assigned to cases until Sept 30 and those who didn't get a visa assigned will get another chance come Oct 1 when the numbers reset. So I'm hoping I either got a number assigned or will stand a chance in Oct. Question is, at what stage did they distribute the numbers to pending cases and how do we find out if my case was assigned one?
    TSC |-| PD - 03/27/08 |-| MD - 01/05/12 |-| RD - 01/07/12 |-| ND - 01/10/12 |-| Check Encashed - 01/12/12 |-| FP Appt Date - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/02/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 12/22/12 |-| RFE Received - June 14 |-| RFE responded - July 09 |- |RFE Status Change Online (LUD) - July 15|| 485 Approval notice - 12/11/13 |-| GC RD - TBD|

  15. #3315
    Quote Originally Posted by Gcsep09 View Post
    I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
    1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
    2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
    3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
    Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
    Estimate on available visas:
    Reg quota: 3k
    EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
    FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
    4K spill over--what are the possiblities
    Total:
    3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

    what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?
    I would say that assuming 14k EB spillover is just day dreaming. In my previous post I had clearly explained the demand.
    Demand:
    June - Dec 08 --> 8k
    Jan - Sep 09 --> 12k
    Visas not approved before June 08 --> 3k (This is coming from trackitt data)
    Total Minimum Demand --> 8+12+3 --> 23k

    This figure of 23k assumes that porting stops today. That is not going to happen. Oct dates are at Jun 08, thus porting will continue at least until end of Oct. If the dates stay the same in Nov then more porting.

    Even with all the high numbers of 14k EB spillover and 4k FB spillover, you only have 21k supply. that is just good enough to go till June 2009. Hence, the best case is June 2009. Again, that is not realistic but only best case.

    I think we should be very lucky to go beyond Mar 2009.

  16. #3316
    Hi All,
    Sorry for posting in this section. I request admins to move to the relevant section once somebody answers my question. This is regarding my Mother in-law's B2 visa. She applied her visa last year(2012) in June and was approved for only one year. I sponsored that visa. Now she is going for visa renewal. I think she is eligible to apply through drop box. My question is does she need to submit all supporting documents like her financial documents, my I 134, my proof of immigration status along with her DS 160, photos and visa fee.
    Please let me know if some body had applied through drop box for B2 visa lately.

    Happy Friday!!!

    Thanks

    Best Regards

  17. #3317
    Friends,
    Just an FYI. Apologies if this has already been posted. ESP ..since many of us are eager for news on our status .. please beware. Posting it here ... as it seems to be most visited.

    "August 20, 2013
    In an email to stakeholders dated 8/20/13, USCIS announced that a new telephone scam is targeting current USCIS applicants and petitioners. The scammers ask for social security numbers, passport numbers, or A-numbers, and claim there is information that needs correcting for a fee.


    The USCIS never asks for payment over the phone, and if you receive a call like this, do not give any information. If you are already a victim of this scam, please report it to the Federal Trade Commission at https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/, or report it to an appropriate state authority. (Visit www.uscis.gov/avoidscams for information on where to report scams in your state.)"

    Source:http://www.wsmimmigration.com/immigration-law-updates/

  18. #3318
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    1,564
    Thanks for sharing. There are tons out there who prey on the anxieties and vulnerabilities of others.

  19. #3319
    Just an Update to people who are current. one of my friends status changed to card production on Friday and he got his physical green card in mail today( for him and his wife). he just called me to share the good news..

  20. #3320
    Got EAD/AP card production email today. Thank God!!
    PD 12/15/2007 RD 08/06/2013, TSC

  21. #3321
    Thanks mesan for sharing that. It means approvals are still happening..some hope there..for this week then...
    the only thing ...is not every one is on Qs or trackitt and update delegently..

  22. #3322
    Hi Gurus,
    When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
    Thanks!

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