With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.Originally Posted by Jagan01
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.
With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.
I think the CO has already accounted for the type 1 porters and the current demand while moving the date ahead. Therefore the demand prior to June 2008 should be 0 considering a world where there are no type 2 porters. I would say that the new demand that will show up for pre June 2008 would be mostly constituted by type 2 porters.
Of course 2013 visa data will be more precise but my point is that if there were no type 2 porters then COs estimations should be close enough and backlog prior to June 2008 should be less than 4 digits. So if we see a demand of 6000 prior to June 2008 in the next inventory then most likely 5000 would have been added by type 2 porting.
Jagan and Gurus,
Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?
This is definitely possible. I know one case (my brother in law) has asked for premium processing for his I140 and expects to interfile next month. In any case, he has repeatedly said he cannot see the porting cases. I think the original estimation of approx 5-7k porting covers all such cases.
Rosharma,So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.
It will take a couple of months for this demand to hit the demand data. As viz said, it should hit by the Dec release. Correct on all other points. As to 300 monthly porting, the dates will retrogress to a point where the organic porting demand is250 per month. We got 300 this month bcos of the FB spillover. Without that it's only 250 per month.
I believe CO accounted for almost all type 1 porters so far. He had 12 days worth of data which should have been comprehensive. The cases you mention will be the organic demand that will continue to be generated every month, but those numbers I believe will be small going forward. We'll know if I'm right based on how far the dates retrogress.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
We have discussed this in previous posts. Most people believe that CO has looked into type 1 porters while setting the date for Sep bulletin. So type 1 porters does not seem to be a real worry. Also from trackitt data there have been 66 applications of (type 1 + type 2) porters that filed I-485 in august so far. Spec can throw some light and tell how much this would translate to in real world.
There will be more type 1 and type 2 porters that will show up in September. type 2 porters in September will be a big number according to me. I am expecting that it will account for 5k additional applications that CO has not accounted for.
By the beginning of Oct we should have the trackitt data which will indicate the fresh I-485 filers (both type 1 and type2 porters). Once we have the trackitt numbers it would require some statistical analysis to tell us the number of porters that got in. Again, I think Aug month porters (people who filed 485 in august) are already accounted for by CO (thats what many here believe). Sept is an unknown zone for everyone.
Viz,
I am hoping that Jan 1, 2009 is a high level estimate. Once we hit Nov, we would have Oct inventory, demand, trackitt new I-485 applications, etc data to help us arrive to a better estimate. My date falls in Jan 2009 and would hate it to be Jan 2009. Hopefully Feb 2009
Anytime I see Jan 2009, it scares the hell out of me...
Jagan,
I hope these figures may help you.
Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.
After August 2013
PD Year -- No.
2000 ------ 0
2001 ------ 0
2002 ------ 0
2003 ------ 0
2004 ------ 3
2005 ------ 2
2006 ------ 9
2007 ----- 64
2008 ------ 1 (assume this is a mistake - user ritre)
2009 ------ 0
2010 ------ 0
All ------ 79
Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.
After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thanks for the figures. They sure are helpful. I see from the monthly data that most applications are coming from Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec 07. These are supposedly the type 2 porters who have never filed I-485.
As mentioned before several times on this forum, there is a bigger incentive for people post Aug 2007 to port to EB2 as they have never even received an EAD.
Can you "Speculate" how many applications would these 64 translate to in real world. I feel the trend will be similar with approximately 15 applications per month of type 2 porters post Aug 2007.
Hi Gurus,
Can you let me know is there any chances of movement in Oct Bulliten.
If yes then how many months we can expect.
Thanks,
Shreya
Shreya,
If there is any movement in October, it will be backwards. I don't think there is any chance of the date advancing in October.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Agree w Spec. EB2I has zero chance of forward movement in Oct.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
What about EB3-I? We all know it moved forward 9 months in spe bulletion. what will be the scenario for 2014? will it move forward or it will retrogress or stay there?
With the spill over capture and all other stuff, I still think atleast 1000 out of 7000 EB3-I applications that will be current in sep 2013 will be left unapproved becuase of USCIS inefficiency in processing the applications in time. Given that do you guys think the dates will retrogress or move forward couple of weeks every month going forward.
Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.
But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.
I will reply here. Lets move EB3 discussion here.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Date-Movements
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q/SPEC,
Based on Trackitt data which Spec posted couple of threads above, we have count of 69 new I485 applications filed in August 2013 for FY2007. As we all know Trackitt data is not near to complete accuracy, let us imagine total number of applications filed is 69*2= 138 new I485 applications. The count of 138 is far less than avarage monthly allocated visas i.e.238. So do you still think dates will retrogress for EB2I below Dec2007 in the future?
We have a bit of contradictory statements in earlier posts after COD moved to Jun152008, but I didn't get a chance to reply to those posts, in some posts it mentioned as date will retrogress in OCT bulletin and in some posts it was predicted as untill NOV/DEC dates will not retorgress. So, could you please share your insight on this.
Does anybody know Indiani/Dec2007 got their GC's? I wish they got it..and congrats to them.
NOV2007,
I think the figure was 64.
For 2007 PD the Trackitt % is about 10%, so that would represent 640 cases, if the % is maintained.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Pedro,
I have not analyzed the cases to determine which may be EB2-EB2 porters and which are EB3-EB2 porters.
If I tried, I suspect the profile information will not be complete and I don't fancy wading through all the individual posts to see if they have said anything more there.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thanks for your response.
Based on your assumption, 640 cases already filed in Aug2013. So its quite evident that EB2I date will retrogress in Oct bulletin itself and it would stand somewhere in 2004 /2005/2006. And people who are filing I485 for the first time i.e in Aug/Sep 2013 have no chance of sailing through till end of FY2014(Courtesy of some SO's).
Please correct me if am making wrong assumption.
NOV2007,
Not necessarily.
Cases newly filed in August won't show as Demand to DOS until they are adjudicated by USCIS.
CO won't have visibility of them when he sets the October VB and they may not be adjudicated in October either, since that would mean approval in under 90 days.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Pedro,
I think if there are any EB2-EB@ porters they will surely be very few. The point being that thy might not want to push out their GC unnecessarily. Of course if there are extreme cases like Employer mistreatment / layoffs / etc then those will port from eb2-eb2. I think that will always be a mystery.
But the EB2-EB2 porting is an important concept that I did not think about earlier. Would the CO be anticipating any EB2-EB2 porting ? Let us say there were 8000 applicants in inventory before Jan 2008. In that case the ones that ported EB2-EB2 would not get visa this time. Thus the real demand is less than 8000 for this FY ? Any thoughts. I am quite curious to hear from people on this forum what their thoughts are about EB2-EB2 porters. Their numbers ? Their chances of getting greened ?
Jagan, The biggest source of EB2 to EB2 demand will be from neither mistreatment or layoffs, but from simply people moving to better opportunities without waiting for their GCs at their original sponsor. I have done this myself.
Anyway, while I have no idea what the EB2 to EB2 demand is, I don't expect it to be high. For that reason, I don't believe CO factors it into his calculations at all. Also, the majority of EB2 to EB2 applicants will not be in the inventory, because if they're in the inventory, they had a chance to apply for their I485, and if so, they'd probably just wait 180 days and move using AC21 rather than port (because porting requires you to redo PERM, I140 and a new I485 and so its a lot longer). There may be a few exceptions that had to move within the 180 day timeframe. Any of these porters will be treated exactly like an EB3 to EB2 porter, and is unlikely to get his green card before dates retrogress.
Spec, I apologize, I never intended to request that you dig through applications individually. I was just wondering if you had used such a filter in your search. I guess there isn't one. Thanks for the data.
Pedro,
No apology needed. I'm sorry you took my comment out of context. I was really just reflecting that at the micro scale, the Trackitt data in the tracker is quite unreliable.
I often have to dig deeper into anomalous approvals to find the reason. Generally it turns out that information in the profile is either incorrect or incomplete.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB-5 could slow down a little due to RBI rules
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/21923165.cms
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