EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[gcq]

I disagree. Back in 2005/06, no one had heard of porting. I didn't even know about it as late as 2007 (granted my knowledge was poor, but I would have acted immediately had I known).

The law was always there, but a systematic mass phenomenon that has developed in the last 4 years was absent. There are lawyers like Ron Gotcher who specialize in porting cases only these days.

Also, before 2004, all dates were current and the main delay was in the labor processing backlog centers. Porting to a higher category would have possibly *increased* that delay, so there was simply no motivation to port.

Also my 2 cents on porting. I agree to the hypothesis presented by Pedro and think we have seen the worst. This kind of mass porting was possible simply because people had EADs. As simple as that. Had 2007 never occurred, EB2-I could possibly be current today and EB3-I would be much further along. I have experienced myself what a lifeline the EAD provides. Even a part time income from my spouse makes a huge difference and gives me an ability to buy a house and stay in this country. It would be the same for anyone who was fortunate to get an EAD. These people could stay and they had enough time on their hands to port.

It would be difficult to do for people post 2007. Not saying they won't do it (I know someone from late 2007 who did it and actually got his GC in 2012 itself!!), but numbers simply would not compare. Your ability to move around on the H1B is very limited and a typical blood sucking desi employer would much rather exploit you than give you a fast track to the GC and a reason to leave him. That's just not going to happen. I believe the worst case porting scenario is done now especially that EB3-I date itself is near the end of 2003 now. We will see some porting from folks in 2005/6/7 for a while, but it will continue to reduce going forward.

Agreed porting was not needed in older days when everyone was stuck up in labor stage, me being one of them. Dates were current because of labor backlog not because of people not needing visa numbers. July fiasco changed all that with backlog elimination centers for labor. Now the bottle neck moved to I-485 stage. Also EB3-I was stuck at April-2001 for years. At least since 2007, porting would have been happening. 6 years have passed since 2007 and gurus have estimated around 3000 porting per year. That explains 18K inventory that should have been reduced from EB3 side.

To move to EB2 lane, EAD is not needed. After 140 is approved, one one could start a new EB2 applications with older EB3 PD preserved. EAD gives lot of freedom, but not a per-requisite for porting.

Porting might have gained steam recently, but also consider the fact the fewer and fewer people are applying in EB3 nowadays.

[tiger_of_web]

tiger - it is easier to talk in terms of numbers here because then that easily tells you why something moved or didn't and whether it will move or not and in which direction!

OK. I believe we are trying to reason how Eb3-I moved by 9 months. Here's what I think:

I believe that EB3-I was very close to utilizing its yearly quota by June/July and i base this on the fact that the movement was stopped in Aug bulletin.

Now, Based on 485 inventory published by USCIS, demand till 22Sep03 should be roughly 6500. Porting deduction by 40% will leave the demand to ~4000. Where will this 4000 come from? I believe there wasnt enough materialized demand in EB3 to utilize the 6k spillover (as the EB3 dates moved significantly only around april/may). Some might be utilized by china and very little by ROW, but the majority will go to India and EB3-I wont retrogress from this date.

[qesehmk]

gcq - we have been estimating porting since 2010 when we started this blog. Indeed people have been porting for quite some time now. So I looked at the data.
Here is the situation:
Oct 2012 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 10.5K
Jul 2013 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 6.5K

4K is already more than the quota.. So imagine the rest is porting. 6.5K were remaining as of July. It's impossible all of them have ported post Jul 2012.

Yet CO moved the date ... so either give them visas or retro the date. There is NO third alternative here gcq. Right?

p.s. - Spec - you are right on your "absolutely criminal" comment. It looks like EB3I will benefit at the cost of EB3ROW. Only a guess as of now. I am not certain. But otherwise dates must retro for them. I cant see a third alternative.

Porting has been going on forever. Gurus on this forum might have started estimating it only recently. Wouldn't people be porting since decades ? It is not a new phenomenon. multiply 3K times 7 years, it easily crosses 18K. The problem is USCIS was considered all these as pending inventory though these were absent all these years. IMO it may not go back. Again I am not a guru in prediction, just a guess.

[GhostWriter]

Sportsfan33, mostly I agree with you but just for the sake of argument I would like to point out a couple of things.
Firstly for Eb3-I people with EADs, to port they still have to find an employer who will do the entire GC process. They don't need the H1 though and have more bargaining power as you point out. But still need GC sponsoring employer.
Secondly regarding motivation one can say that someone with a PD of say March-2008 in EB3 without an EAD and without even any prospect of EAD, if ports has a good shot of getting a GC in a year should be highly motivated. Probably more than someone who already had an EAD in EB3. Yes he needs to find an employer who will sponsor both GC and H1B which in this economy won't be easy. But if job market improves we can not rule out significant porting from this category either. I think people in EB3 ROW without EADs have actually been doing it since EB2-ROW has been mostly current.

But overall I agree with you we should expect less consumption from porting next year (hopefully).

I disagree. Back in 2005/06, no one had heard of porting. I didn't even know about it as late as 2007 (granted my knowledge was poor, but I would have acted immediately had I known).

The law was always there, but a systematic mass phenomenon that has developed in the last 4 years was absent. There are lawyers like Ron Gotcher who specialize in porting cases only these days.

Also, before 2004, all dates were current and the main delay was in the labor processing backlog centers. Porting to a higher category would have possibly *increased* that delay, so there was simply no motivation to port.

Also my 2 cents on porting. I agree to the hypothesis presented by Pedro and think we have seen the worst. This kind of mass porting was possible simply because people had EADs. As simple as that. Had 2007 never occurred, EB2-I could possibly be current today and EB3-I would be much further along. I have experienced myself what a lifeline the EAD provides. Even a part time income from my spouse makes a huge difference and gives me an ability to buy a house and stay in this country. It would be the same for anyone who was fortunate to get an EAD. These people could stay and they had enough time on their hands to port.

It would be difficult to do for people post 2007. Not saying they won't do it (I know someone from late 2007 who did it and actually got his GC in 2012 itself!!), but numbers simply would not compare. Your ability to move around on the H1B is very limited and a typical blood sucking desi employer would much rather exploit you than give you a fast track to the GC and a reason to leave him. That's just not going to happen. I believe the worst case porting scenario is done now especially that EB3-I date itself is near the end of 2003 now. We will see some porting from folks in 2005/6/7 for a while, but it will continue to reduce going forward.

[Spectator]

Not sure if this adds anything to what Q has already said or not.

Looking at the Demand Data, it has been clear that EB3-I overall reduces at a greater rate than approvals for EB3-I.

Looking at the Nov Demand Data (as at early October) and the last published Demand Data for FY2013 (as at early June), the following are the rough reductions due to PD that were Current during the FY versus total reduction for the FY for EB3-I.

------- Current --- All ---- Diff
FY2011 -- 3,550 -- 6,075 -- 2,525
FY2012 -- 2,500 -- 6,525 -- 4,025
FY2013 -- 3,550 -- 5,950 -- 2,400

I would attribute the main reason for the difference to be the removal of cases that had been approved under EB2 from the EB3 Demand figures. It is not necessarily the same as the level of porting, since that is only the net reduction.

[Jagan01]

Jagan, I promised a more detailed response but I'd not anticipated how busy you've been today, so it's taken me a while.

I've responded to each of your posts below, but I'm going to explain how I think of the process. I expect you already know this but i'm spelling it out to avoid confusion.

a) Whenever dates move, EB3 to EB2 porting is composed of pent up demand component (your type 1 porters who have moved jobs, have interfiled, are preadjudicated and are ready for a visa number, or your type 2 porters who have filed the new PERM, new I140 and are ready with their EB2 I485), and if the dates stay steady, there is an organic demand component generated each month (people with EB3 PDs before the EB2 current date that have completed an interfile application or have a new I140 approved).

b) The path forward for EB2 in the current environment is likely to be one where the dates move every Q4 and then retrogress the following Q1 and stay steady so that the organic demand generated is fulfilled by the 250 regular visa numbers available to EB2I each month pre spillover. Then in Q4 spillover comes in which will allow dates to move sufficiently forward to meet the existing EB2 demand and the pent up EB3 porting demand until that date. Your type 2 porters (who have never filed an I485 application) will take some time to receive their green cards, and will likely not get it because dates will retrogress before then. So they may not be incorporated in COs calculations when he moves the dates forward (Because he doesn't want to waste visa numbers since they won't be processed in time). However, they will be noted in the demand data as soon as their applications are preadjudicated so they will be known for the following year's spill over. This is what has happened in FY2013.



I think your assumption is that dates will retrogress significantly in Q12014 and then move in Aug 2014 to Oct 2008 by which time demand of 12K will materialize before Oct 1 2008. Since there is currently 4.5k of inventory between June 15 and Oct 1 2008 and since you are assuming 2K unfufilled demand pre Jun 15th (which excludes your type 2 porting for the reasons i mentioned above), you are assuming unfulfilled porting demand before retrogression and pent up new porting demand will be 5.5k in total. Also, I guess this 12K will only use spill over and not the regular 3K EB2I supply?



The 700 per month that would have ported had the EB2I PD always been at June 2008 are mostly incorporated in CO's calculations when he moved the dates to June 15, 2008. Only the 5K that you think have already ported post Aug 2007 are not, and this ties to the 5.5K figure i calculated above. I think it is high, but it is internally consistent.


Two things happened, a) he tried out quarterly spillover which came to bite him on his backside as EB2Row ran out of visa numbers and had a cut off date imposed and b) he wanted to build an inventory because if he waited until the end of the year he would have had insufficient EB2I applications in the queue to use up all the spill over.

You believe porting is going to be a steady stream every month until all EB3I applicants either receive their GCs from EB3 supply or port to EB2. I disagree. I think most people who want to and can port before June 2008 will have already ported by Sep 2008 (or be preadjudicated and incorporated in the demand data). The incremental organic porters will be far fewer than 300 pre Sep 2004 . I dont have any calculations at the moment, but my gut says the EB2 dates will retrogress to somewhere in mid 2007.
And surely my knowledge of the process can't come across as being so rudimentary as you imply above.

1) Your type 1 porters will not be available in the inventory. When they interfile and if their dates are current they will receive their green cards immediately. The organic type 1 porters will be met through the monthly visa numbers available, and the pent up type 1 porters just use up visa numbers from the spill over and get their GCs.
2) 2K of type 1 porters in addition to the 3K regular EB2I supply (which will also be used by type 1 porters), would indicate 5K of porting just pre Aug 2007 which is around what we're assuming for FY2013. You have to be pretty pessimistic to think that's going to stay the same for the same period (pre Aug 2007). PErhaps your 2K is not in addition to the 3K regular EB2 availability?
3) Of the trackitt numbers you pulled, the first 97 will have an EB3 I485 so they'll get their green cards in August 2013. CO has a very good idea of their numbers because he waited 12 days to release the VB.
4) The other 75 (so about 1.2k after applying the 6% figure) are a part of the 2K that you expect not to get their GCs before the numbers retrogress.
5) You wanted to research trackitt to answer how many type 2 porters with PDs before OCt 2008 would generate pent up demand before Aug 2014. The position of people on this forum that have researched the subject is that there are fewer EB3Is with 2008PDs than with 2007PDs so then the total porting figure pre Oct 2008 would be significantly < 6K (which is the expectation for 2013). I don't think you have looked into that. I haven't either.

If he held the dates constant and more applications are processed than he can give monthly 250 visa numbers to, he will have to retrogress the dates, or use quarterly spill over to meet the demand. He can't just do nothing.

As Spec pointed out, CO has sufficient EB2I inventory. He will also have plenty of understanding of porting demand by then based on this summer's applications, so he can make a pretty good educated guess about how far to move dates in August 2014.

That's a long post but i wanted to address all of your points.

Pedro,

Thanks a lot for your inputs. Finally I am able to figure out what went wrong in the 2012 fiasco and it was "Quarterly Spillovers". I had no clue that something like that could be done. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain that.

I pretty much agree with the explanations that you provided except for the point where you say that porters will be less with PD 2008. The trackitt data for the porting cases that have their I-140 approved between June 2012 till today is as below:
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

Since these were approved post June 2012, they have never had an opportunity to be current prior to AUg bulletin. Hence these 172 have never been considered in any demand and constitute the type 2 porters (the ones who have never filed I-485). Thus the 97 have not yet been considered in demand and they do not have their EAD. I do not understand why you say that they would have their EAD. May be I am missing something here.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

Thanks a lot for your inputs. Finally I am able to figure out what went wrong in the 2012 fiasco and it was "Quarterly Spillovers". I had no clue that something like that could be done. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain that.

I pretty much agree with the explanations that you provided except for the point where you say that porters will be less with PD 2008. The trackitt data for the porting cases that have their I-140 approved between June 2012 till today is as below:
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

Since these were approved post June 2012, they have never had an opportunity to be current prior to AUg bulletin. Hence these 172 have never been considered in any demand and constitute the type 2 porters (the ones who have never filed I-485). Thus the 97 have not yet been considered in demand and they do not have their EAD. I do not understand why you say that they would have their EAD. May be I am missing something here.

If they had a PD of between Sep 2004 and Aug 2007, the vast majority of them would have had a chance to apply for their I485 in EB3 during the July 2007 fiasco (in reality, it's better to look at Sep 2004 to May 2007, because if the PD was June or July 2007 they would have likely missed the boat at that time). That EAD puts them in the EB3 demand data. They already have filed I485s and their applications are probably pre-adjudicated, so once they have their EB2 PERM and I140 approved, they can interfile easily, and will be approved for their GCs pretty quickly.

Those 97 are not in the EB3 demand data and not the EB2 demand data, but given that they were current in August, and likely interfiled in the first few days of the month, CO has a very good idea on their numbers. He would have included those numbers when calculating how far to move the visa bulletin. On the other hand, the guys with PDs after June 2007 probably don't have an EAD and so they have to put in a new I485 application in August or September 2013 and they will probably not get their GCs before the end of the FY on 30 Sep 2013. Hence, CO didn't need to consider them in his calculations.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Guys, I need the forum's advice on something. My priority date became current with the Sep bulletin (PD: Apr 3 2008, Filed for 485 in Jan 2012 and got an EAD/AP). I just changed jobs (3 months ago) and the attorneys with the new company are getting ready to file some paperwork related to AC21. My understanding is the paperwork is completely discretionary. Does filing it at this juncture increase, decrease or doesnt affect my chances of getting greened in the next few months (before EB2I retrogresses). Please HELP!!

There was some discussion on this thread a few weeks ago on this subject. I think kanmani was a part of that conversation so look up her profile and go through the posts she's made in the last month to 2 months and you may be able to find the discussion.

I think the majority opinion was that its better to hold off and not file the AC21, because the AC21 application may result in an RFE. Instead, do not file the AC21, but keep the documents ready, primarily an EVL from your new employer to use just in case you get an RFE for an EVL.

Still, consult with your lawyer, and if you don't like his/her response, consult with a 3rd party lawer. Murthy's firm does phone consultations that aren't super pricey, from what i've heard.

[indiasunil]

Gurus,

Please advice !!..

I received RFE email from USCIS along with all(06/14).. Due to my lawyer address change, it got returned. She called USCIS & also, sent new G-28 forms for address Change along with RFE re-generate..
Received address change, but as of today did not receive Physical RFE copy.
Lawyer opened Service Ticket on (07/19) no update as of now.. She called three to four times, still USCIS saying sent out and will receive by 08/19. Good thing is, Lawyer asked USCIS officer RFE information, they read complete RFE and also she asked the next step if not received by on-time.. They told as send all the documents whatever informed by phone along with a letter with explanation after 08/19(30 days period)..

Little tense, so just need an advise- Is there any better option which i have to think ?

Sunil

[jackbrown_890]

not sure if it was discussed here:
does anyone know the reason behind low Eb2Row and EB1 demand for last 2 months? and what will be the trend in 2014?

[Spectator]

I moved the conversation regarding EB2-C vs. EB3-C filing to this thread.

[Dodd_Frank]

You can open a Service Request to obtain a copy of the RFE. You could also have contacted your Senator to get a copy of the RFE.
I did the same got a copy (not mine but a boilerplate copy from both these methods) and sent the response.

[Pedro Gonzales]

not sure if it was discussed here:
does anyone know the reason behind low Eb2Row and EB1 demand for last 2 months? and what will be the trend in 2014?

EB2ROW is believed to be a mix of slow PERM processing given sequestration and focus of the USCIS on EB3ROW. EB1 is affected by the focus on EB3ROW, but i don't think that's the whole answer.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I moved comments related to early walkins for finger printing here

[Immigo]

Since the dates for EB3ROW have been moved fairly aggressively, what is the expected demand data buildup for EB3ROW assuming dates do not go past July 1, 2010 for the next few months ? This is important from two angles:

1) To understand if EB3I will get any spillovers next year from EB3ROW - this is good for EB3I and perhaps EB2I (if it discourages some level of porting to EB2I).
2) To understand how EB3ROW will moved forward over the next 12-18. This may be indirectly important for EB2I spillover as the motivation for EB3ROW to upgrade to EB2ROW will be less if dates are expected to move fast.

I have tried to arrive at a ballpark figure using these assumptions:
1) I have assumed a simple EB2:EB3 split was 50:50 for ROW (EB2 was probably higher in later years once people realized that EB3ROW was not moving)
2) I485 per approved PERM = 2 (actual value is probably 5% higher).
3) For priority date of 2007, 2/3 of EB3ROW is still waiting for for GC (since EB2.
4) EB3 ROW PERM is evenly distributed for 2010 (I know data is available, but being just lazy here)

Using the data on this forum and the above assumptions, I have used the below calculations:

a) EB2 approvals (ROW + Mex) / 2 = EB2 PERMs (ROW + Mex)
b) EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = Total PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) - EB2 PERMS (ROW + Mex) (from a)
c) EB3 Demand (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) * 2

Sources of error: At least three - Have not included China (assuming may get at most their demand), PERM and EB approval data is not aligned. Philippines EB3 may consume more that its quota.

Based on the above, I arrived at an expected EB3 (ROW + Mex) demand till July 1, 2010 of approx 35K. This is roughly 13-14 months of demand for EB3 ROW + Mex (i.e. no China, India and Philippines). This should imply that next year FY their should be another round of inventory buildup for EB3 ROW. Using the above assumptions, it can also be seen that 2011/2012 are sweet spots for EB3 ROW and if CO decides to build an inventory of another 35K next year, EB3 ROW should move to Q3/Q4 2011 by September 2014. If CO decides to build inventory at 50K, EB3 ROW can move to Q3/Q4 2012 in September 2014.

If there is another round of inventory buildup next year, EB3I may be lucky again to get more than its quota. As mentioned above, this may be good news for EB2I as well as there will be less porting both from EB3I and EB3ROW.

Gurus - my assumptions are simplistic. I therefore request you to help arrive at a more educated guess on EB3ROW expected demand data buildup.

[helooo]

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

[qesehmk]

heloo - I may be wrong but I don't remember when was the last time EB2I dates moved forward in October.

Given that the country and category is backlogged, I would imagine that CO has already moved the dates to a point where visas wouldn't be wasted. That creates the potential that he may retrogress in October. I have already commented earlier on why I think Oct won't see any movement and possibly even Nov. I think Dec is when dates will move. But my guess is only as good as anybody else's. So would be glad if dates move forward in october.

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

[vizcard]

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

Whatever spillover is available either needs to be used this fiscal year (ends Sep 30, 2013) or is "wasted" (in reality it goes over to the FB quota). The movement to June 15 is definitely to mitigate the possibility of wastage. Also, I don't think you've accounted for porting in your 16K. By my math, its 8K (prior to Jan 1, 2008) + 8K (Jan 1- June 15) + 7K (porting)

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.

PS: I know you are agonizingly close to the COD but I don't want to raise any hopes unnecessarily.

[vizcard]

How did you factor in 7K porting?

Is it because you assume 500 per month and 500*14 = 7K as EB2I was effectively unavailable for 14 months?

This makes the projection for next FY even worse. 5K will be left over and will cause immediate retrogression. 3K will be server from the regular quota. 2K will be leftover even after that. So 12K pure spillover is needed just to get the dates in 2009. This needs to happen without FB spillover!

So its not 7K, its 5K. Point being is that heloo didn't have porting included. And yes, I do believe dates will only move to Jan 1, 2009 in FY14 based on the info we have right now. I will put a more detailed post at the beginning of Oct if more info comes out.

[pdmay2008]

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.

CO spoke did not talk about EB2I retrogression in Sep 2013 bulletin. I would say dates stay as it is until November or December bulletin and then retrogress. Can he bend the rules to assign the visa numbers now, so that USCIS can approve the cases after Oct 1st 2013. Not sure how that process works.

[rosharma]

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

[dorais]

It is a nice classification to understand the porting demand better for EB2(I).

Please note that with the EB3-ROW current, there would be fresh Type 1 porters (using AC21 after 6 months of 485 filing) that would consume the Fall across from Eb2-Row.

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

[bloddy1]

I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

[vizcard]

I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

Date movement is a function of demand and supply. While its true that the 2009 demand is lower, the supply in FY14 is expected to be lower. I seriously doubt dates will move March 2009.

It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)

this is unknown at this point in time but as you point out, they will eventually be in the demand data.... most likely by Dec.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

Demand and inventory data by definition would not have "unknown demand" (otherwise it wouldn't be called unknown)

That being said there could still be pre-July 2007 folks who have not ported yet that might choose to do so. This number is still unknown.

[Jagan01]

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

Points are correct. I think where we disagreed was the number of type 2 porters. EB2 Demand/Inventory will show those numbers soon. I am expecting that there will at least be 5000 of these type 2 porters that will show up in the next Inventory report.