EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Pedro Gonzales]

Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. This porting is difficult as the job requirements should match, etc.
2. Those who never had EADs. This porting is easy as there is no requirement for job to be iwhtin same state, same description, same profile, same duties, etc.

So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least. Now with the combination of (1) and (2) it is going be much higher. If the PD stays at June08 then there will be both types of porting active (1) and (2).

Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.

That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.

I disagree that 2 is going to be higher than 1. In fact I'm willling to bet that it will be significantly lower.

When I researched using AC21 portability a year ago, my take from my online research (that I trust) and my lawyer (that I trust less) was that there is a lot of flexibility in terms of geography and job description Progression in career and lateral moves in related organizations in the same sector (eg., in my sector, moving from an investment bank to a private equity fund, a family investment office, a venture capital shop, a corporate etc) are quite acceptable.

On the other hand, a person that doesn't have an EAD has to find an employer that is willing to go through the PERM process and apply for a new I140 and I485, all of which takes time and expense, and for smaller employers in my sector, this is a hassle they'd rather avoid.

Secondly, I don't believe that the 300 per month porting numbers are going to stay constant. I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year. That is because the folks most likely to port (because of children aging out, ability and willingness to move to better opportunities, or simply tired of waiting for their GCs) have already done so. No doubt every year there will be more people that fall into that category, but that is going to be far lower than we've had in FY2012 & FY2013 because of a pent up demand of several years that was met in those years. Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec can answer better...I think we are certainly going to get *some* spillover because F2A was made current and has remained current in Sept. But I don't think it is of the tremendous order as this year. It's more likely to be a couple of thousands or in that range, which we can ignore for all practical purposes. Spillover next year has to come from EB1 and EB2-ROW and it needs to be 10K+ just to reach 2009.

Actually, likely we'll get none.

Quote from the VB:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

[Jagan01]

I disagree that 2 is going to be higher than 1. In fact I'm willling to bet that it will be significantly lower.

When I researched using AC21 portability a year ago, my take from my online research (that I trust) and my lawyer (that I trust less) was that there is a lot of flexibility in terms of geography and job description Progression in career and lateral moves in related organizations in the same sector (eg., in my sector, moving from an investment bank to a private equity fund, a family investment office, a venture capital shop, a corporate etc) are quite acceptable.

On the other hand, a person that doesn't have an EAD has to find an employer that is willing to go through the PERM process and apply for a new I140 and I485, all of which takes time and expense, and for smaller employers in my sector, this is a hassle they'd rather avoid.

Secondly, I don't believe that the 300 per month porting numbers are going to stay constant. I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year. That is because the folks most likely to port (because of children aging out, ability and willingness to move to better opportunities, or simply tired of waiting for their GCs) have already done so. No doubt every year there will be more people that fall into that category, but that is going to be far lower than we've had in FY2012 & FY2013 because of a pent up demand of several years that was met in those years. Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.

Pedro,
I respect your research that it might be easier for type (1) to port. But I do not agree with two facts.

I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year

. This is not true. The set is bigger now than ever in FY 2013. In FY 2013 it stayed at 2004 and therefore only people before 2004 could port. Now it is 2008 and hence everyone before 2008 can port. Thus the porting numbers just based on type (1) will increase.

Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.

. Here again I disagree. You seem to be looking at I-485 inventory and demand data. Please understand that the type (2) porters do not show up anywhere in EB3. By your logic in 2013, there are more applications in EB1 compared to EB2. That is factually incorrect. The numbers show up in inventory that way because EB2ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 with PD 2013. Similarly EB3ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 in 2008. There is a hidden wave there which is going to turn everything upside down.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,
I respect your research that it might be easier for type (1) to port. But I do not agree with two facts.

. This is not true. The set is bigger now than ever in FY 2013. In FY 2013 it stayed at 2004 and therefore only people before 2004 could port. Now it is 2008 and hence everyone before 2008 can port. Thus the porting numbers just based on type (1) will increase.


. Here again I disagree. You seem to be looking at I-485 inventory and demand data. Please understand that the type (2) porters do not show up anywhere in EB3. By your logic in 2013, there are more applications in EB1 compared to EB2. That is factually incorrect. The numbers show up in inventory that way because EB2ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 with PD 2013. Similarly EB3ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 in 2008. There is a hidden wave there which is going to turn everything upside down.

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

[willywonka]

Gurus, another question regarding the basic reasoning behind moving the dates forward to Jun 15 2008.
Was CO thinking...
A) ok if I move the dates to 06152008, I am taking a risk with eb1 or eb2row going temporarily unavailable but at least I know that no visas will be wasted this FY ?
Or
B) ok based on my estimates of eb1, eb2row and porters for the rest of this FY, I know that all pending demand for Eb2I as of 06152008 can be comfortably accommodated within this years quota. It's ok if a few visas are wasted but I don't want eb1 and eb2row to even temporarily be unavailable.

[tenyearsgone]

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

FWIW, I believe a lot of post-2007 EB3 folks are porting as well. Some of it is company driven as well..
For ex: Juniper for a long time had a EB3 only policy for their employees (even those with MS/PhD). In 2011, they changed one of their senior HR folks who came in pointed out that Juniper was losing many of their experienced/talented employees to porting. As a result, they revamped their entire immigration policy and practically everyone who was EB2 eligible went through PERM&I-140 again. Their entire set of EB3 folks prior to June 2008 is current now and more to come as dates move along. I am inclined to think those numbers are large (500+, maybe even 1000) given how large Juniper is and how many Indians work there.

This change is going to come to other companies in the Bay Area as well given the demand for experienced talent. To me it looks like porting will have a larger impact going forward and an estimate of 6000+ porters/yr is more realistic.

[Jagan01]

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

Pedro,

I went through trackitt numbers for I-140 data. I can see that the following number of people have their I-140 approved post Apr 2012.
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

If we assume trackitt represents 6% of the set then 172 should map to 2866. So I thik we need to account for another 3k porters of type 2.
Type 1 porters will be the ones would at least be another 2k and that number will anyways be available in the next I-482 intventory. So I stick with the 12k demand before Oct 2008 (7.5 known + 3k type 2 porters + 2k type 1 porters).

[SeekingGC2013]

01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/24/08 - natvyas
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/14/08 - SeekingGC2013
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08[/QUOTE]

[prem79]

Pedro, Matt, Q and Experts,

I have a PD of Dec 2006, (ported from EB3 to EB2). Filed 485/EAD/AP for first time in Aug 2013.
What is the best case and worst case scenario to expect GC.
I have missed the boat couple of times to file 485....

[vizcard]

Some general comments on my part
- First congrats to all to those who are current. I certainly hope that everyone who is current and has previously filed 485 get their GC in hand now.
- For those who are applying for the first time, please don't expect a GC this year.
- I firmly believe dates will retrogress in the Oct VB. Not retrogressing would mean all demand prior to June 15 has been cleared AND the 233 per month is sufficient to meet porting demand as well as newly filed 485s.
- I expect backlog to be cleared through the end of 2008 in FY14 (this may be different that where the COD will end up)

[chewbaca]

Vizcard,
My pd is in jan 2008. if dates retrogress would they go back to 2006/2007 or could they still linger in early jan - selfish and curious!!

[Vkkpnm]

viz,
I have rarely seen contradicting statements from
Viz and Q, where Q has hinted that dates may not retrogress till December and you are certain it will go back in Oct VB. what do you think how much date will be retrogressed in Oct?

[bathula44]

Please add mine to the list

01/03/08 - bathula44

[Jagan01]

viz,
I have rarely seen contradicting statements from
Viz and Q, where Q has hinted that dates may not retrogress till December and you are certain it will go back in Oct VB. what do you think how much date will be retrogressed in Oct?

I also do not think the dates will retrogress in Oct.

Even if CO runs out of the visas in Oct, he still has to build up inventory so that he has enough amount of pre-adj cases wen the SOFAD is applied next year. Looking at the inventory pretty much everything before 2007 is going to be cleared. Lets consider he has 8k left in 2008 in the Oct 2013 I-485 inventory report. He might actually want to build up more inventory and take in more applications so that he has a good 15k in hand by the time SOFAD is applied next year.

Issuing a GC is very different. I am saying he might stop issuing GC until end of fiscal year 2014 but if he wants to build inventory he might still keep the dates moving ahead until Jan 2014 bulletin. Once he has the necessary inventory he might pull the plug. I think that would happen in Jan 2014 as the next inventory data after oct will be in jan.

[vinodindia]

Unless someone else responds differently, I think you are safe. My application was randomly transferred from TSC to NSC even though i didn't have an address change. Since you notified the USCIS of the address change, you are good to go.

Thanks for your comments

[Spectator]

I also do not think the dates will retrogress in Oct.

Even if CO runs out of the visas in Oct, he still has to build up inventory so that he has enough amount of pre-adj cases wen the SOFAD is applied next year. Looking at the inventory pretty much everything before 2007 is going to be cleared. Lets consider he has 8k left in 2008 in the Oct 2013 I-485 inventory report. He might actually want to build up more inventory and take in more applications so that he has a good 15k in hand by the time SOFAD is applied next year.

Issuing a GC is very different. I am saying he might stop issuing GC until end of fiscal year 2014 but if he wants to build inventory he might still keep the dates moving ahead until Jan 2014 bulletin. Once he has the necessary inventory he might pull the plug. I think that would happen in Jan 2014 as the next inventory data after oct will be in jan.

Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

[MeraGC1]

Hi Spec,
Does this mean the next PD movement for EB2-I will be during July - September 2014 time frame? My PD is 7/15/08 and I was hoping to get GC this year.

Thanks

Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,
Does this mean the next PD movement for EB2-I will be during July - September 2014 time frame? My PD is 7/15/08 and I was hoping to get GC this year.

Thanks

Mera,

My honest opinion is that CO will follow a similar strategy next year and that the COD won't advance past your PD until Q4 FY2014.

But what would I know?

[MeraGC1]

Do you think I can get it next year or Do I need to wait till 2015 because of porting & less SOFAD?

Thanks and appreciate your help!

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

Spec,
I think the 19k that you mentioned is split as 14k in 2009 and 5k in 2010. I am splitting the 16k of 2008 into 8k prior june and 8k post june. So once the spillovers are applied, there will be 8k left in 2008 and 19k post 2008.

The CO might want to get a fair idea of the porting numbers and keep the dates around 2008 so that he can get many of the porting applications in his inventory which can help him better estimate the numbers while applying spillover for FY2014. He might want to build up the 2008 inventory as it gives him accurate number on top of allowing him to follow PD ordering while handing out GC. Afterall, he keeps complaining that there is no visibility into porting applications and that is one way to get visibility as most of pre-2009 can get pre-adj that way.

I should have used the words "CO might want to build up sufficient 2007/2008 inventory so that he can get to better numbers"

[indiani]

Mera,

My honest opinion is that CO will follow a similar strategy next year and that the COD won't advance past your PD until Q4 FY2014.

But what would I know?

Spec,

CO has the habit of always surprising us,
so as Q believes CO might keep it at the same COD without retrogressing in oct ( thereby possibly consuming few thousands) and then make it unavailable for a while or do in any other way he pleases.

If CO knew about the actual usage and demand in real time in all the categories last few months, I still don't understand why he would wait till august to make any movement ( apart from the fact to prevent new filers from consuming any visas this fiscal and rather to allow for longest possible movement in sept)

There are quite a few who are still reeling from the frenzy of 2012 and hoping that its not repeated this time again

[Vkkpnm]

Viz,Q,Spec...: I and few more guys are really curious to know if you guys can predict how much dates will be retrogressed in Oct or Dec? Appreciate you response on this. Please let us know if that cannot be predicted now due to lack of data/uncertainty.

[garihc27]

i doubt anybody on the forum could answer your question. You can try and see if Senator and Congressman can help you out. Good Luck!!!

Thanks I will contact my local Congressman and Senator. In addition does anyone have any recommendations on going through the case status appeal at DOL, http://www.dol.gov/appeals/case_status.htm
or taking an extreme step such as filing federal writ of mandamus lawsuit for delay against the DOL.

I am considering all possible options since I don't want to miss this window of opportunity again.

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Viz,Q,Spec...: I and few more guys are really curious to know if you guys can predict how much dates will be retrogressed in Oct or Dec? Appreciate you response on this. Please let us know if that cannot be predicted now due to lack of data/uncertainty.

Vkkpnm,

I don't think there is enough data to say. I'll give you some thoughts, but not a prediction.

Essentially, it will still be a Supply/Demand equation.

On the Supply side, the conventional view would be that normal allocations apply in October. That would be 9% of 2,803 - 252 visas.

It's also possible that CO could use the full quarter's allocation of 27% of 2,803 - 757 visas, by borrowing from other Categories.

But overall, he is actually only bound by 27% of total EB visas in the first quarter, which would give a monthly allotment of 12,600 for EB1- EB5 in October. If a Category was particularly slow, he has the option to temporarily increase the number to another Category. That would be a judgement call, because he could not know that in advance from the information supplied by USCIS.

So, the number that could be available is not a known quantity.

The Demand also has a number of variables.

If visas were to run out part way way through September, cases would still be pre-adjudicated for the rest of September and become Demand for October.

Considering the large forward movement in September for EB2-I and EB3-I and the need to also process pending EB3-ROW/C/M cases that are Current, I think USCIS have an awful lot of cases to deal with in September. The chances of visas running out early might well be less because of that.

The movement in the COD almost certainly contains a contingency and a number of EB2-I cases are not going to get approved. Virtually all of those will already be pre-adjudicated and be in the Demand going into October.

During October, additional demand is also going to be added as cases are adjudicated.


The simple equation is if October Demand for the COD of 15JUL08 is likely to be more than the Supply of visas available in October, the COD must retrogress. Where the retrogression is to, would be determined by the PD makeup of the Demand. I don't think it is possible to know that makeup at the time the October COD is set.

Finally, the October COD will be determined in early September, when a good determination may not be possible.

The danger of not retrogressing, then assessing the actual Demand, is that EB2-I may (and probably would) use too many visas in October. If that happens, the danger is that subsequent retrogression is likely to be far worse than it otherwise would have been.

Overall, I see more reasons to retrogress in October, even if only temporarily, than to leave the COD at 15JUL08.

Only if all possible cases were approved by the end of September, would leaving the COD untouched in October be a relatively safe bet IMO.

[Spectator]

Spec,

CO has the habit of always surprising us,
so as Q believes CO might keep it at the same COD without retrogressing in oct ( thereby possibly consuming few thousands) and then make it unavailable for a while or do in any other way he pleases.

indiani,

That is a possible strategy, if there are sufficient numbers available form other Categories. I agree it would probably have to be made Unavailable for a period, or heavily retrogressed if that were the case.

Do you really want to see EB2-I become Unavailable for a period in FY2014?

I think that is a very depressing thought.