Glad the dates are current. Has been a long journey and qesehmk made it a more informative and less painful...Special thanks to Q, Spec, Matt, Indiani for keeping people like me informed and less in the dark
- My PD is Jan 10 2008 but I have not yet filed for i-485. Do you think there will be enough time to get the actual card instead of just getting the EAD/AP within the next few months?
Missed by 9 days and yet to file 485
Gurus, I am bit bummed, I was hoping against hope to file I-485 this month and it feels really bad to be so close yet so far. Is there any hope in the next few months? There are quite a few life decisions which are pending on this and I do not want to change jobs now only to miss the window again (already missed once in 2011 as I was re-doing PERM). Would really appreciate any guidance here.
i doubt anybody on the forum could answer your question. You can try and see if Senator and Congressman can help you out. Good Luck!!!Originally Posted by garihc27
[I]EB3 PD: Dec/21/2007
EB2 PD: April/01/2009
Center : TSC
485 MD: Nov/30/2011 (with lawyer covering letter requesting to convert/interfile/port with EB3 priority date to EB2 category)
485 RD: Dec/1/2011. 485 ND: Dec/13/2011
FP Walk in Done: Dec/27/2011. (FP App. Date: Jan/18/2011)
EAD/AP: Feb/10/2012
On June/22/2008 USCIS issued new (notice of approval) I140 with EB2 category and PD Dec/21/2007
GC: Aug/19/2013
garihc27: Most likely no one knows the answer to your question (I certainly don't). That's probably why you are not getting a response.
Spec, Q, and other Gurus,
Any idea about what was considered in Aug bulletin and what was considered in Sep bulletin.
We had a discussion earlier where people suspected that FA is only taken into account for Aug bulletin and FD is not taken into account. With the Sep bulletin the use of the words "otherwise unused numbers" and the fact that CO specifically mentions low consumption of EB1, it looks as if FD was only considered in Sep movement.
Basically my Question is to find out in which bulletin and at what time the CO gave the following spillovers to EB2I:
1. FD from EB1, EB4, EB5
2. FA from EB2WW
3. Family based unused visas (also is this available every year ?)
Congratulations to all those who will be current next month.
I am very happy for you guys.
Q, I didn't really think June 2008 would even be remotely possible. You stuck with your prediction even in light of several indicators to the contrary. Your intuition/gut perfectly compliments the raw and solid calculations from Spec, Matt, etc. If this is indeed the last full fledged prediction from you, I have to say... Way to Go Q!!! And thank you for everything. I am going to stick around this forum at least until I get my GC and I will surely miss you.
Gurus, when the dust from this FY settles and when we get to look at the pending inventory early next year, I am inclined to think that there would be a total backlog of 9-10k eb2i before PD Oct 1 2008. (That includes unresolved porting cases from this FY, unlucky unapproved straight eb2i
cases left over prior to Jun2008, newly filed cases, and the currently known demand between Jun15 and Sep30 2008). Does that make any sense to you at all ? Can you share your opinion please ?
But the spillover is for FY 2013 right. So this means they either have to approve cases until september 2003 else in October move it back? I do hope it moves ahead.
kd,
You are correct that I am including an allowance for porting.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This spillover is for FY 2013 right which means they either process all cases until september 2003 or else in October move it back? I sure hope they keep on moving it ahead
I have been a very passive member but couldn't control myself registering to mention how valuable about Q's and other experts contributions are to/in this forum to the immigrant community. Hats off to you! You deserve a standing applause!
Congratulations to everyone who are current.
I missed the boat by 5 days (PD - June 19 2008) but wouldn't sweat much on it since there are few people who didn't have an EAD even with earlier PD than mine.
Hopefully USCIS learns from its mistakes and grants visas in order of PD.
I am not a guru but would like to say that the visa bulletin was released pretty late and CO should have thought that the demand until June 2008 would be fulfilled this year. Of course his predictions could be wrong but I would expect an error of around 2k. Now the additional demand from june to oct is another 5.5k and thus I would expect the total backlog to be around 7.5k
However, I am thinking the porting is going to be lethal until the 2014 spillovers come in. The biggest worrying factor is that there is a very high motivation for people with PDs post 2007 to port to EB2 as they might not even have their EADs.
So to summarize, I think the next time inventory is released it might be around 7.5k before Oct 2008. But by the time CO can move the dates again (Aug 2014 viasa bulletin) that number would have gone up to 12k.
I don't see the dates retrogressing anytime soon, rest assured:-)
My friends got their GC in 2 months, so anything is possible....
Spec, Q, Matt
Would you agree that trackitt could be relied for Eb2ROW approval trend if not the actual numbers? The EB2ROW approvals really tapered off in the last couple of months compared to those earlier Jan-Feb-Mar.
Regards
Nat
Natvyas - Of late I haven't used trackitt much because I figured that last years usage + labor data + USCIS dashboard are sufficient to make decent predictions. However trackitt data is very useful for EB2I and EB2ROW trends. Both have sufficient data points that the data IMHO is statistically significant to draw inference from with some cautions of course. The caution being - the data generally is more dense for past dates and less dense for current dates (as one would expect). So the ratio of trackitt cases to actual cases changes accordingly.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
12k is scary, if it is indeed that high, it puts an Oct 2008 PDer at pretty much the same spot in line as he was at the beginning of this FY (maybe just a couple of months better)...Even though it looks like Eb2i is getting around 18k total this FY. These potential porters give me nightmares.
I just remembered the old PD Database thread here
Congratulations to the following folk for being current again, although some of you may have got your GCs back in spring 2012.
01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
Hi -
If anyone with knowledge about this responds, it will be great. My PD is May 30th 2008. I had filed my 485 in Jan 2012 and got my EAD through TSC since I used to live in VT. Last Dec, I moved to MN which comes under NSC. I promptly changed my address on the application with USCIS in December itself and go the confirmation. Since MN comes under NSC, will my paper work be transferred from TSC or it does not matter and TSC will be processing the file?
01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/24/08 - natvyas
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
@willy - appreciate your kind words. On intuition and gut - I actually do use data. But then I don't go too crazy slicing and dicing a whole lot because statistics loses its significance at micro level. Randomness kicks in. So it is critical to keep usage of data at a high level.
On whether it will be last prediction - indeed I will for obvious reasons that I have earlier talked about. But I promise I will be around and sure I am not shy on giving advice if I could be of any help to any one of you.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. This porting is difficult as the job requirements should match, etc.
2. Those who never had EADs. This porting is easy as there is no requirement for job to be iwhtin same state, same description, same profile, same duties, etc.
So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least. Now with the combination of (1) and (2) it is going be much higher. If the PD stays at June08 then there will be both types of porting active (1) and (2).
Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.
That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.
Unless someone else responds differently, I think you are safe. My application was randomly transferred from TSC to NSC even though i didn't have an address change. Since you notified the USCIS of the address change, you are good to go.
Congratulations to you too, but if you want to get your name on the list, please update that thread. It'll help us keep track of approvals too when Sep 3 rolls around.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
nat,
Historically, the figures have been quite reliable. As Q points out, the actual % is subject to small changes each year and is never identical.
Here's the comparison of EB2-ROW (No M or P) Trackitt approvals for last year and to this year to date, calculated on the same basis.
Month ---- FY12 - FY13
October ---- 40 --- 68
November --- 14 -- 122
December --- 60 --- 44
January ---- 58 --- 89
February --- 61 --- 75
March ------ 64 --- 65
April ------ 46 --- 61
May -------- 50 --- 56
June ------- 52 --- 47
July -------- 3 --- 41
August ------ 4 --- 10
September --- 1
Total ----- 453 -- 678
The numbers of EB2-M and EB2-P cases on Trackitt is too low to glean any reliable data.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
We need to monitor the trackitt database to see how many people apply their I-485 for the first time in the month of September 2013. Then scaling it out will give you the number of porters which according to me might be around 5k. Trackitt usually represents 6% of the dataset. Thus if we see another 300 applications that are added to trackitt database then can conclude that in the real world there are 5000 type 2 porters that got into the queue in front of you.
The longer the date stays at June 2008 the more the porting to be seen ahead of your PD.
Spec,
One question. My PD is Jan 2009. I initially was hoping that I might get current in FY2014 but now I am really tensed and am getting a negative feeling that it might not be the case. Any advice. Any number crunching on where we will end up in FY 2014.
Spec, Q, MATT, Teddy, and all other Gurus:
I need some advice. I have always failed to understand the movement that happened between June 2011 to Mar 2012. For example, lets consider the Nov 2011 bulletin. According to the explanation read in the posts, we should have been getting 300 visas per month of EB2I. Oct 2011 I-485 inventory is attached below which shows that there were at least 8k applicants in the inventory before July 2007. When CO could only give 300 visas and there were more than 8k pending before July 2007 then why did the dates move ahead from July 2007 to Nov 2007 in the Nov 2011 bulletin. This was followed until Mar 2012 and I fail to understand the basis. It has always been beyond me to comprehend this movement.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf
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