EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

Thanks eb2. Feel vindicated!!

Congratulations to all those current!!

Notice how the bulletin doesn't say EB2I dates will retrogress. I think this is what people need to understand that next year - if there is retrogression in eB2I - it will be artificial just like this year. Which means - that the dates next year too will move forward - ahead of where they are now.

Anyway .. congrats again. Surprisingly it seems EB2ROW probably has not fully utilized its quota which has resulted in more favorability.

September bulletin is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6050.html

EB2I- 15JUN08

[kd2008]

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

FAMILY-sponsored:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.

[pdmay2008]

Thank God!!!

Congratulations to all those current. Happy to see my PD current again!!! Good luck every one.

[Jagan01]

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

FAMILY-sponsored:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.

Heartiest congratulations to all those who are current.

[TeddyKoochu]

Great to see good movement for EB2 at 15-JUN-08, EB3 India also jumped to 22-SEP-03 this is spectacular.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6050.html

[MATT2012]

Congrats everybody who got current, let Sep bring good news to all who got current. Wishing you all Good luck!!

[helooo]

Congrats to all who are current.
Q,
What does following mean?


EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

[Spectator]

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal, although I can't help but feel pleased for EB3-I.

[kd2008]

So going into FY 2014, EB2-IC inventory will be at 33K + cases newly filed, upgraded, lingering etc.

[suninphx]

Congratulations to all who are current.

Q- great predictions..spot on. Hope mood on this forum stays upbeat for few months after many many months of conservative outlook.

[druvraj]

That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal.

VB release EB2I cutof date June 08. Hopefully all current will be greened.

Druvraj

[druvraj]

Could anyone tell me when and how a SR is issued? Please educate me as whenever it was mentioned I could not completely grasp it.

[qesehmk]

It is basically saying that CO didn't expect EB2I to move to Jun 2008 but because EB1 and EB2ROW saw less than expected demand especially in last 2 months (this is where CO can play games to achieve desired outcome - forget my comment if you don't get it!).

Further he says that he expects this to generate significant EB2I demand (in other words he hints at retrogression but doesn't go on to say so explicitely).

So overall - this is vanilla statement - I don't read too much. As per your case missing by 1 day. I wouldn't worry too much. Depending on how well they clear EB2I backlog upto Jun 2008, you may very well get your GC prior to March 2014.

Congrats to all who are current.
Q,
What does following mean?


EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal.

Spec - we wouldn't know that until the DHS annual report is published for 2013.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec one more point 2 years back EB3-I inventory used to be in the 60K plus range now its closer to 40K so besides approvals there has been a lot of porting to EB2 and even EB1 (Individuals going back for a year and coming back on EB1C) and abandonments I believe there has been some cleanup done to the inventory to remove individuals who are not in the category queue anymore.

[richie.rich]

Great Movement!!!

[geevikram]

Missed the boat by 18 days..

[geevikram]

Guys, I'm a little bit disappointed. Do we have enough data to project date progression next year? Thanks for all your help.

[venkat]

Missed the boat by 10 days...Life has to move on....

Missed the boat by 18 days..

[veni001]

Congratulations to all EB2-EB3 folks who will be current in September, good to see significant forward movement for EB3I.

[qesehmk]

Guys, I'm a little bit disappointed. Do we have enough data to project date progression next year? Thanks for all your help.

geevikram & others who missed it by a few days - I would say this. Most likely there won't be any forward movement until at least Mar 2014. Sorry to break your heart ... but that's how retrogressed categories work.

Jun 2014 is when you should expect any movement.

Retrogression wouldn't matter - since it is "artificial" to cater to technical rules.

If there is any forward movement at all between Oct and Dec - it will be temporary. So more than likely Jun 2014 onwards is when you should realistically expect a GC. just putting this out so that you can plan life/career around it. As you know my guess is as good as yours. So take it with a pinch of salt. Just trying to help here.

[ontheedge]

I dont feel so bad about the anxiety over these past few days now! Hope we all get our approvals soon too

[ontheedge]

Retrogression wouldn't matter - since it is "artificial" to cater to technical rules.

Q, do you expect retrogression immediately with the beginning of the new FY?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Congratulations to everyone who is current...especially you Pedro!

I see some light at the end of the tunnel...I am still waiting (late Oct 2008) but I am confident it will be current next year. Great to see EB3-I moving ahead rapidly and hopefully this will also reduce porting going forward.

This is an exciting day!

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.

[mstanfield]

Whoa !! super thrilled by the movement. The analysis on this forum is really exemplary. My PD is june 10th, 2008. How likely is that they will clear the backlog all the way through june 15th, 2008?

[qesehmk]

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.

Pedro - congrats!

Q, do you expect retrogression immediately with the beginning of the new FY?

With computers and all - I don't know why CO would ever need to retrogress. But apparently he still lives in stone age and can't see the demand ahead. As a result he can very well retrogress dates whenever he pleases.

If you are asking for my guess - my guess is he WILL retrogress Dec onwards. He will spare Oct and perhaps Nov too.