It won't be on the Sept demand data but it will be in the Oct one. I would assume that going forward "unknown demand" from porting will decline.Originally Posted by Spectator
It won't be on the Sept demand data but it will be in the Oct one. I would assume that going forward "unknown demand" from porting will decline.
I think you might be correct that the inter filing cases may not be included in DD but CO definitely should have some ( rather good) idea about how many of these cases are there , so I hope CO will actually keep it in consideration before planning COD for the last month of fiscal year.
I am hoping that they might be able to approve most of the cases in the first week before DD is released , even though that means more than 1000 a day, I just don't know how exactly the Pre-adjudicated cases are dealt with and how long they take to look at the file before approving , I hope you were in charge spec ( instead of CO) as its not that complicated to guess the exact movements if we have every data that's available to CO.
almost everyone knows some 2007 or earlier cases might be left out in this frenzy but what percentage and who will be effected can only be seen after sept.
vizcard,
I agree that unknown demand that can affect the FY approvals will decline.
This year was unprecedented in that there was a 15 month period of retrogression before the dates became Current. Ongoing, that should be in the 6-9 month range, depending on when retrogression starts in FY2014.
Also, eventually, but painfully slowly, the EB3-I dates will advance. That will shrink the number of years where porting applicants can already have a pending I-485 under EB3. More applicants will be filing I-485 for the first time and, if date movement is late in the year, stand much less chance of being approved in the same FY.
I'm not sure when the Demand will start to show. For any DD, the date the figures are compiled is about 3 weeks in advance of the VB month. Even if the dates retrogressed in October 2013, IMO the first DD that would reflect it fully might be the December DD which would have figures as at about November 7th i.e. about 3 weeks after retrogression has started. The November DD might show some effect (1 week), depending on how quickly the cases are being adjudicated. If visas run out before the end of September and retrogression starts in October, the number might be greater in the November DD.
The October DD will have numbers compiled on about September 7th.
I do realize there are differing opinions on what the DD represents.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
agreed.. i should have said "Oct onwards demand data".
"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs."
above from AILA presentation: I interpreted the above as - only cases where 485 is never filed wont be there in DD, for inter filings the 140 is attached to previously applied 485, the cases will be part of DD when the 485 is accepted IMO, visa number is requested after pre-adj when its current
if inter filers are already in DD then we should see a big jump in next bulletin perhaps 4 or more months but I am not quite confident about the above interpretation.
Your interpretation of the words is right but the conclusion is somewhat wrong. Every case with a pre-adjudicated 485 but without a visa number will be in demand data. So EB3 will bein EB3 demand data and EB2 will be in EB2 demand data. What it does not say is that they have visibility to number of cases switching from EB3 to EB2.
In other words, CO knows total backlog and split by original category but no (or at best limited) visibility to those that change categories.
PS: by the words, CO has visibility to all 485 backlog not just pre-adjudicated cases
Guys (Q/Spec/Veni/Matt/Indiani/Vizcard/Kanmani/Others) - quick question reg. my I-485 approval process ..
PD 15NOV2007, getting current from Aug 1st. The status is still in "Initial Review" but i remember long time ago (during Mar/Apr 2012), i called USCIS and the L2 officer told that my case was Preadjudicated (donno whether its true or not)
Please let me know whether i need to do anything from my side, I am very nervous when the dates getting closer and closer ... Somewhere in Trackitt, i read that the cases who got RFE has a high chance of getting GC this time ... Do i have to pray to get an RFE now?
I really donno what to do ... Dont want to miss this time ... Appreciate your response ...
snrusa,
The whole batch of NSC filers didn't get the RFE too. Don't Worry. You will be greened very soon.
Wait and Watch trackitt for approvals with PD/service center closer to that of yours for a week, then start calling L-2 and later take Congressman route.
its not just you, most of them are in response review or initial review( mine), bottom line they are "reviewing" , when I called L2 she said your case is "under review" when I asked the same question .
not everyone got RFE, perhaps the computer randomly picked or some other reason, your chance is better than someone who got RFE as you don't have to worry whether the evidence will be convincing or not.
I think CO should know all the inter filers and would have kept that number in consideration before moving the dates but I think someone who never applied 485 yet( either in Eb2 or EB3) will not be considered to calculate COD as it will be very very difficult for them to get GC this fiscal year
indiani,
It would be nice to think he did have that information, but I do not think CO has it for cases that completed after retrogression.
CO has said on multiple occasions that he does not have visibility on "upgrades" until they are approved (or at least when a visa is requested under EB2).
Only USCIS might be able to supply that information.
CO has also stated repeatedly that USCIS can not provide him with the required information because USCIS have told him that they do not keep track of "upgrades" either.
If he indeed CO does have quite accurate figures already, then I would not expect to see much movement of the COD for September. The level of "upgrades" is the figure that has the greatest uncertainty IMO and it is the uncertainty that is the biggest driver for further forward movement beyond what a better calculation of available spillover can allow.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Well "should" is the operative word here. In a perfect world, ofcourse he should have access to the entire pipeline real time. There should be absolutely no reason to make wild movements if it is based on real pipeline information. i mentioned this previously that the movement would first to be a point where he FELT that he would surely be able to cover the known demand and porting. Any future movement would be based on any additional spillover (which at this point is absolutely known).
Someone who never filed a 485 ofcourse wouldn't be in demand data because he/she was never adjudicated. By definition he/she wouldn't be in any demand (regardless of category).
Even for the TSC folks who received the mass RFE, I take it their RFE responses should been already reviewed by now as its been more than a month now since most of the folks responded to it. I hope these cases should now be sitting in the pack of pre-adj. cases waiting for a push of the "approval" button starting Aug 1st..
I think better description is that CO might have a fairly good idea of potential inter filers even though he doesn't have exact figure provided to him, assuming he can make guess based on his experience or some other data ( just like some of you are able to guess), which is sad as its quite easy to keep a track and get the data if they think its that important and if they want to change the internal process.
I might be a bit biased to think that CO might know the number approx. ( rounding to thousands) but logically thinking also he is the best person to guess to closest number in his department.
august 1st week will be quite interesting as the dynamics of this year are unprecedented.
I think I will put this issue to rest as I am not able to provide any meaningful/ useful info about this issue and I appreciate all your posts about porters and interfilers
I wish there is a push button ( but I highly doubt it works that way ),it always baffles me why they made this process so complicated to give a GC to lawful, skilled residents ( sorry, couldn't stop ranting about this). But based on what I heard from others in the forum ( may be spec can comment on this) is that they will look at all the documents or other evidence for final time before approving, that's why they cant approve all pre-adj in one day.
My wildest dream is that on august 1st there will be a mass approval like the RFE's that were sent
Very Well Said ! (Viz and Spec)
The above information is not written on assumption, they were told by the concerned authorities over the years.
kanmani ,
the point I was trying to make is that CO wont have the data in exact figures but he will be in a situation to guess what approx. number of filers could be there , anyway aug 1st week most of the info will be available
Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.
You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.
Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.
DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.
The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.
Kanmani - you put it very well. Broadly speaking i agree except that - CO is much better positioned than us and the process of green card allocation - while does follow rules - also is bent jointly by DoS and DHS and DoL (don't forget the third ministery) to meet certain political objectives.
So othre than that minor difference of opinion - I think this was a great post by you. I wish the forum software had someway to recognize great posts in golden border or something so that readers could get attracted to those posts and not have to read entire thread.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
indiani,
There's no doubt this is a subject of much frustration.
Here's my thoughts on what we might deduce and CO might know to base an estimate on. CO might also have extra information unknown to us.
Since the EB2-I COD has not moved, we can probably deduce that in the 10 months to August 1, EB2-I should have used about ((9 * 9%) + (1/3 * 19%)) * 3,163 = 2,762 visas, if EB2-I has just received the minimum allowed by 7% of the 45,188 EB2 allocation. I see no reason why EB2-I would have received less than that amount.
It's therefore fair to assume that the 01SEP04 COD was capable of consuming 3k for the full year.
Porting numbers for that COD represent no more than 2 years (EB3-I ended FY2012 at 08OCT02).
Roughly that is a rate of 1.5k / FY / PD CY.
September 2004 through July 2007 represents the time period when someone upgrading from EB3 to EB2 might already have an I-485 on file and pre-adjudicated. That is roughly a 3 year period. Cases any later than that will have to file an I-485 for the first time, with little to no chance of being approved this FY.
That gives a realistic upper limit of a further 1.5 * 3 = 4.5k porting cases that might become current from August 1 - September 30, 2013. No doubt some of those are older than the beginning of retrogression and are counted in the DD already. I wouldn't like to put a figure on that number. That of course assumes the rate of upgrades beyond August 2004 is similar. That may, of course, not be a fair assumption. It's not difficult to think of reasons why it could be either higher or lower in later years.
Do we know any more than that?
Either way, I think we are talking about a few thousand cases that are not currently in the DD that could be approved this FY.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Kanmani - well said.
I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days
Q, Thank you for your words. I compared CO with us only in the context of hidden demand. Otherwise I could only watch him playing golf with Sportfan's attorney (through fence)
My only concern about the forum features is 'SEARCH', which is currently not up to the mark.
Sun,
That positive tone is unavoidable while being in the queue. Otherwise, I am a worst critic.
I would second what sun had said ...the posts posted by all gurus are most informative and also the tone is so positive. All the folks in this forum are so decent and respect each other's views if they don't agree which is very rare to see now a days.Kanmani - well said.
I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days
Glad to be part of such wonderful forum and thanks for Q to have started and maintaining it and also Thanks to other gurus for keeping all of us informed and clarifying all our q's and concerns..
Spec,
Could it be that CO did not allocate 7% to EB2 I so as to payback EB2 ROW for the extra visas that he borrowed last year (for EB2 I) and made it unavailable ?
Maybe CO's strategy was to limit EB2I to 1000 visas or less initially and allocate rest to EB2 ROW (which was potentially backlogged). End of year he can allocate spillover
to EB2 I.
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