EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[axialtilt]

The consensus is that there will be some movement. There is a fairly wide range in terms of how much but its anywhere from 1 month to 6 months. My personal opinion is that we will end at March 1, 2008. That would clear another 3000 or so demand (almost certainly all will be original EB2 pre-adjudicated demand).

Also, IMO (and I know there are others who disagree), that dates will retrogress in the Oct VB itself probably to Jan 1 2006.

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.

[indiani]

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement

[pdmay2008]

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.

[PD2008AUG25]

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.

[eb2visa]

Just thinking out loud

There is no way to process all the RFEs by Aug 10th and may not be even Aug 31st. I would think EB2-I will reach China - Aug 2008. This is to make sure if some of the RFEs are not processed or Needed additional info or just to make sure all the numbers are utilized.

[pdmay2008]

CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.

[vizcard]

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.

CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

[desitiger]

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

[everydayout]

EB has received roughly 18K visa numbers from FB.
I think CO must use the original 140K allotted for EB. But Is he obligated to use all the FB numbers (18K or whatever is remaining) before Sep 30 2013?
If he doesn't use all the remaining FB numbers by Sep 30,2013, Will they go back to FB pool?

[pdmay2008]

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

I don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

I agree that he has used FB spill over to move dates to Jan 1,2008. But did he use 100% of available under FB spill over. I don't think so. He must be watching EB1 demand until next bulletin release to estimate approximate remaining numbers from FB Spill over(unused under EB1)that he can allocate to EB2I. That might not be huge number, but further movement is definitely possible.

[rferni]

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

From everything I have heard, read and calculated (somewhat) - appears there may be small movement. Fundamental assumptions are:
1. EB2ROW will be on target or slightly over its allocated annual quota of 34K
2. EB1, EB4 and EB5 will also come in on or around target of their annual quota

Which leaves the total spillover for EB2I to be around 10 - 13K (18K - whatever is consumed by EB2 China and EB3). We already know there's 8050 pre-approved I485s prior to Jan 1 2008 - some of them wont make it for RFEs, denials etc. and there will be an additional number of unknown interfiling upgrades from EB3.

Probably leaves room for an additional month or two ... if we're lucky

[GCKnowHow]

If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)

[willywonka]

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

My two cents...
I think Jan 1 2008 is very conservative and it was chosen anticipating a huge porting demand.
CO must have had a very good estimate of how much spillover is available for EB2I by the time August bulletin was released. Lets say that number is X. And knowing him, he would deduct 2k from it as a buffer just in case other EB categories have any unexpected raise in demand towards end of the FY.

Now what he wants is that X-2k to "comfortably" take care of 8k (known demand prior to 1 Jan 2008) Plus new demand (say Y, from porters that will materialize in August AND September). I am assuming here that he is very bullish about the porting demand. So if Y is the actual porting demand (I am sure he can talk to someone in USCIS to get an idea...their relation can't be as formal as they portray it to be), he would pad it with an additional 1k to be safe.

So what it boils down to is, (X-2k) >= 8k + (Y+1k)
In other words, X = 8k + Y + 3k

Now, if all the other EB categories perform as expected, and Y is close to what's anticipated, there should be 3k additional visas available. And these 3k will move EB2I comfortably to cover Feb 2008 in September. That's why CO said that Feb 2008 is the best case scenario.
If the other EB categories underperform (like EB2ROW is doing now) and/or Y is lower than anticipated, then EB2I will get more than 3k and dates will move into or beyond March.
If the other EB categories over-perform, and/or Y is higher than anticipated, then EB2I will stall at Jan 1 2008 or worse retrogress in September. This scenario doesn't seem probable.

[vizcard]

I agree that he has used FB spill over to move dates to Jan 1,2008. But did he use 100% of available under FB spill over. I don't think so. He must be watching EB1 demand until next bulletin release to estimate approximate remaining numbers from FB Spill over(unused under EB1)that he can allocate to EB2I. That might not be huge number, but further movement is definitely possible.

When I referred to FD from EB1, it includes the FB allocation for EB1. It is one bucket - its not split up as "regular EB1" and "FB EB1".

If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)

Dependents can only be processed under F2 IF they have applied under F2. Almost all EBs have applied for dependents with 485s. But theoretical yes, take out the dependents and EB moves faster. That's why there's been a push to remove dependents from the quota. That itself effectively doubles the GC quota.

[vizcard]

EB has received roughly 18K visa numbers from FB.
I think CO must use the original 140K allotted for EB. But Is he obligated to use all the FB numbers (18K or whatever is remaining) before Sep 30 2013?
If he doesn't use all the remaining FB numbers by Sep 30,2013, Will they go back to FB pool?

Good question. I dont know for sure if there is a reverse flow of unused EB visas (and they are now EB visas). CO has already said "available numbers for EB is 158K".... so he definitely "plans" to use 158k. With so much backlog, I can't see a scenario where he doesn't use all 158k

[Spectator]

Good question. I dont know for sure if there is a reverse flow of unused EB visas (and they are now EB visas). CO has already said "available numbers for EB is 158K".... so he definitely "plans" to use 158k. With so much backlog, I can't see a scenario where he doesn't use all 158k

vizcard,

Unused EB visas are available to FB next year in exactly the same way as unused FB visas are available to EB the following year (INA 201(c)(3)(C)).

Unfortunately, due to the complicated way the FB allocation is arrived at, it would not give FB more then lowest figure allowed of 226,000.

[Spectator]

If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)

It may, but only in the future.

a) An I-130 for the dependent under F2A can only be submitted after the primary I-485 has been approved.

b) The I-130 has to be approved before an I-485 based on it can be approved.

c) The Cut Off Date for F2A has to be Current for the PD of the I-130.

The best PD under F2A for most people is going to be in August 2013.

Even with fairly quick processing, the I-130 is not going to be approved until February 2014.

It then depends when F2A gets back to a COD of August 2013 or later. It is possible that the PD under EB2 may become Current earlier and people will choose to adjust under EB2 with a 2008/2009 PD, rather than under F2A with a 2013 PD.

I think it depends how far F2A retrogresses and then what the progress is from that point.

It is true that most of the spare FB extra visas this year were because of under-use in F2A last year (primarily Mexico it seemed). It is possible under-use may happen again this year if CO has left it too late to move the F2A COD, but the underlying numbers at DOS are around 200k, so their really should be none to waste.

[ggk189]

My two cents...
I think Jan 1 2008 is very conservative and it was chosen anticipating a huge porting demand.
CO must have had a very good estimate of how much spillover is available for EB2I by the time August bulletin was released. Lets say that number is X. And knowing him, he would deduct 2k from it as a buffer just in case other EB categories have any unexpected raise in demand towards end of the FY.

Now what he wants is that X-2k to "comfortably" take care of 8k (known demand prior to 1 Jan 2008) Plus new demand (say Y, from porters that will materialize in August AND September). I am assuming here that he is very bullish about the porting demand. So if Y is the actual porting demand (I am sure he can talk to someone in USCIS to get an idea...their relation can't be as formal as they portray it to be), he would pad it with an additional 1k to be safe.

So what it boils down to is, (X-2k) >= 8k + (Y+1k)
In other words, X = 8k + Y + 3k

Now, if all the other EB categories perform as expected, and Y is close to what's anticipated, there should be 3k additional visas available. And these 3k will move EB2I comfortably to cover Feb 2008 in September. That's why CO said that Feb 2008 is the best case scenario.
If the other EB categories underperform (like EB2ROW is doing now) and/or Y is lower than anticipated, then EB2I will get more than 3k and dates will move into or beyond March.
If the other EB categories over-perform, and/or Y is higher than anticipated, then EB2I will stall at Jan 1 2008 or worse retrogress in September. This scenario doesn't seem probable.

1. The number portrayed as 8k is close to two months old number when he has to analyze in Aug first week as this month because of no demand data we are still using the 8k figure mentioned in July DD
2. The number y , he would have received from uscis when he decided to move dwould have been would be one month back, as the first info on Jan 1 2008 was before last month aila meeting. So there will be some addition to that from y to y+Δy

Hoping that buffer of 1k would accommodate the increase

[indiani]

IMHO Jan 1st to May 1st is the range , I think we can expect ( with march 1st being average)

we can look at it several ways but most believe it falls within this range.

August will be an exciting as well as nerve-wrecking month ( I am sure people who will miss by about a month will feel terrible especially as it wont advance in October and they might end up waiting for another year )

[GCKnowHow]

It may, but only in the future......

Thanks Spec.

[KKKKKK]

Spec, Q, Matt, Indiani and other experts...

I could be thinking too much here but just want to get our opinion if my thinking is logical...
There has been a whole lot of discussion on how USCIS would process the pre-adjudicated applications...if its based on PD or RD. I think the conclusion was they are process by RD if the dates are current.

So here is my question, assume the date moves to 1st Apr 2008 in Sept as most of you are fairly confident of...and if it comes to a situation where the demand and the supply are very close...would you think the folks with PD date before Mar 15th have better chances than folks with PD after Mar 15th. Thats because the dates in Dec 2011 were moved until Mar 15 2008..and moved beyond Mar 15 2008 in Jan 2012. So all the folks before Mar 15th 2008 would have a RD of Dec 2011 and after Mar 15 2008 would have a RD of Jan 2012.


You are welcome to strike off my thinking and say that I am thinking too much...As you might have guessed by now my PD falls after Mar 15th 2008...


Cheers!!

[Kanmani]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

[suninphx]

From everything I have heard, read and calculated (somewhat) - appears there may be small movement. Fundamental assumptions are:
1. EB2ROW will be on target or slightly over its allocated annual quota of 34K
2. EB1, EB4 and EB5 will also come in on or around target of their annual quota

Which leaves the total spillover for EB2I to be around 10 - 13K (18K - whatever is consumed by EB2 China and EB3). We already know there's 8050 pre-approved I485s prior to Jan 1 2008 - some of them wont make it for RFEs, denials etc. and there will be an additional number of unknown interfiling upgrades from EB3.

Probably leaves room for an additional month or two ... if we're lucky

We should consider ourself lucky if EB2ROW consumes only 34 K or slightly over that. Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K) If EB2ROW indeed consumes around 34 K( I consider that as remote possibility) then we are looking at ending this FY with PD much farther than Q1 2008.

[vizcard]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

thats absolutely right. Ofcourse there is no guarantee that it WILL be absolutely FIFO (as we saw last year). But given there is pending demand, it should by pretty close to FIFO.

[vizcard]

We should consider ourself lucky if EB2ROW consumes only 34 K or slightly over that. Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K) If EB2ROW indeed consumes around 34 K( I consider that as remote possibility) then we are looking at ending this FY with PD much farther than Q1 2008.

I personally do not believe it will be 34K. My expectation is it will be around 40K (given the retrogression last year).