I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications
Regards
You are absolutely right about porting cases not showing up in EB2 demand on the DOS side. USCIS, however, appears to have acquired the capability to convert EB3 applications to EB2 internally even though the PD is not current - despite what the AFM says. The agency is acting on interfiling requests and moving the applications to pending EB2 inventory (multiple Trackitt reports, personal experience)
I've always thought that a request for visa number had to be made or was generated automatically as soon as the converted application was flagged as pre-adjudicated in the new category, which would make it impossible to convert when the dates are not current. Perhaps they now have a way to add them without requesting a visa number, and pull up pre-adjudicated applications that haven't had a visa number requested for them when the dates become current. Or maybe it's just my beer fueled wishful thinking...
Anyhow, would you expect a reduction in EB3 DOS demand to happen immediately when USCIS reclassifies the EB3 applications as EB2, since they are effectively 'withdrawn' from a DOS standpoint? It would be interesting to see the reduction in EB3 demand data next month if that were the case, since it should provide a fairly accurate overall porting number. Thoughts?
The AFM only says the conversion of the basis of the I-485 cannot take place until the new Category is Current. That IMO opinion is the request for a visa under EB2 and approval.
The rest of the process that people call interfiling can still take place. The A-file can be consolidated with the all the information, an RFE can be raised for a written request from the applicant to be considered under EB2 when the dates become Current and the I-485 can be checked for any issues that need resolving for it to remain pre-adjudicated. There seems to be plenty of evidence that is happening. The case may even be filed in the staging area under EB2.
USCIS don't appear to be reflecting the new Category in their own Inventory - the April Inventory figures were fairly close to the Demand Data published around the same time.
CO has said, that for a time, the case will be shown under both EB2 and EB3. I have no idea how quickly the EB3 case disappears from the EB3 demand and how that is accomplished. Indiani has some slides from a recent AILA conference that mentioned it - perhaps they shed more light on the subject. Previously it has been reported:
so there does appear to be some automation of the process.Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that both cases for a person remain open (so it looks like two numbers are being used) if a person is upgrading from EB-3 to EB-2, and only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file number go away.
People have previously thought the reduction in EB3 Demand would give some sort of handle on porting numbers. So far that hasn't really worked out. We'll just have to see if it is better this year. I've pretty much given up hope that the porting numbers can be calculated in any meaningful way from the figures available.
I'm not going to pretend I know how the system operates for porting cases, there isn't sufficient information to do that.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My understanding was, most of the lucky people who got GCs with PDs between 1 Jan 2008 and 31 Dec 2008 were mostly in earlier part of 2008. If that's true, we wouldn't be in much different place than where we are now. Final movement will still be off by 1-2 months, but not much.
What really scares me is potential lack of SOFADs in 2014. If FY 2013 ends somewhere in Feb-March 2008, It will require 6-7k EB2 + 4-5k porters(for fy 2014) = 10-12k visas for Aug 2008 to clear. With no FB spillover, and other things being similar to FY 2013, we could be very well waiting till Aug 2015.
PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I
Maybe I'm being optimistic here but I don't know if there are 4-5K porters left between 2004 and wherever we end up this year (after we get done with this round). So if CO doesn't move dates again till July 2014, then you still have new porters who have to file and deal with the 485 processing lead time. Regardless, I think we'll have enough SOFAD to get to Oct 2008 if not Dec 2008. I believe we should get around 15k SOFAD next year (incl normal quota) ofcourse there is no mathematical basis for it YET.
There's two ways to accomplish that.
1. Move the dates way in to the future (or C) so that people can file their 485s and EADs. But the risk here is of random approvals and over-allocating (basically what happened last year).
2. My preferred method - allow concurrent filing with I140 and approve as dates get current. Ofcourse this is a much bigger change and possibly needs legislative approval
Long story, short - ain't goint to happen any time soon
Spec
Do you plan to update your forecast for this FY before the next VB is released?
The reason I ask is because the PERM certifications for EB2 ROW has slowed down considerably and I was wondering if it will have any bearing on the COD.
Regards
Nat
With my June 19, 2008 PD, I am feeling less confident that I will be able to file for EAD this year. One thing I am wondering about for next year is, what is the outlook on EB-5 spillover? This year, I thought it did not yield any spillover because of the Ski-resort they are building in Vermont, but is there high demand projected even next year for EB-5?
http://goo.gl/lzKkq
Nat,
I wasn't planning to since I still think the ending COD will be somewhere in the range I have already mentioned. The dates in the August VB moved pretty much as I expected.
I still think the best case is around 01APR08.
The slowdown in PERM processing is pushing more cases into being FY2014 approvals. It has certainly reduced the number I originally thought EB2-WW might get approved this FY, but one way or another I think that is still reflected in the prediction range. EB2-WW appear to have sufficient cases already in the system to reach their allocation for the FY. Originally, I could see a scenario where reaching a 2008 COD might not have been possible if EB2-WW had particularly high approvals, even if it might have been unsaid.
Other unknown factors, such as EB1 approval level and porting numbers represent significant uncertainties as well. I think they might ultimately have a bigger effect if I have misjudged them (and essentially that is no more than an educated guess).
I think I will just leave the prediction unchanged.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
civilengineer,
CO recently said that he thought EB5 will use approx 9k visas this year.
That is despite some fairly major problems that have led to lower adjudications than expected.
The underlying demand (based on I-526 submitted and adjudication times) is such that we should not expect any spillover from EB5 in the next few years. The number of pending I-526 increased by 65% in the period April 2012 to April 2013 (the latest figure available). An I-526 takes approx a year for a decision to be taken on it.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This is my first post in this wonderful forum. I have been reading this for years now and now I have to make a very important decision based on what you experts think about priority date movement in the near future. Is it possible that my PD of May 23, 2008 (EB2 India) will be current in FY 2014? In other words, can i expect to get my GC by Aug/Sep 2014?
I have my EAD/AP and based on what you feel, I have to take a very important decision of switching jobs using AC 21. If there is a possibility that I can my GC next year, I will stick to my current job. If not, I will change to a new one.
Thanks in advance.
Hello Spec,
Could you please take a look at the questions i've asked when you get a chance please. Thanks a lot ...
Summarizing the gurus, I think you are very likely (65%) to get your GC 12 months from now. There is a small chance (15%) that you will get it in the next 2 months, but a very real chance (20%) that it may get pushed out 2 years or more (in a scenario where EB1 & EB5 supply fill up each year, EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW porting eats up all EB2 supply, and EB3I porting takes up all normal EB2I supply).
My recommendation would be to wait until Aug 10th (better still Sep 10th), and if dates retrogress without crossing your PD, make the move immediately. AC21 is well established and as long as the new job is stable and willing to provide an employment verification letter (EVL), there is no reason not to use it.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
Completely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.
PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope)
HiCompletely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.
PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope
My PD is Mar 7 2008 - NSC. I will be travelling out of country from Aug 8 - Aug 22. Not sure if this date would be current in Sep 2013, if any RFE will be issued between Aug 8 - 22. Most of the RFEs seem to be EVL related. If it is EVL type of RFE, I assume i can submit the response during Aug 8 - 22. Can you please advise what things i should be taking care for the Aug 8 - 22 window when i will be out of the country.
Thank you !!
Viz, I fully expect the FY to end at 4/25/2012 thereby giving my wife an opportunity to constantly remind me for another 12 months about my procrastination back in 2007.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
Gurus,
As per trackitt, someone with a PD of 7/23/2008 got an RFE today from NSC.
http://www.trackitt.com/member/gcsnvle
When USCIS has so many pending 485 applications, why would they work on July 2008 case? Does this mean they are planning to move the dates to July 2008?
Moderator: Please remove the trackitt link if it is inappropriate
a) Call your lawyer to make sure that the your addresses (both yours and his address) are updated.
b) Make sure sms and email alerts are both on at the USCIS website.
b) Give your mailbox key to a friend so you can ask him to check your mail in case you get an RFE in between that period.
Other than that, I don't think you need to be worrying about anything right now.
I hear u brother...same here.
I am with a PD of SEP 2008.. Any chances of getting greened in in FY 2014.. its very confusing
Not sure what to make of it but I hope this is some positive indication.
Hi
Regarding a) what address are you referring to - US or out of the country address and where should it be updated incase there is no change in the US address for myself or the lawyer? Could you please clarify.
I think there are better people than me on the forum to answer your questions.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
From the past movements, we can see that cutoff dates are mostly set to either 1st,8th,15th or 22nd of a month. (weekly movement)
and since 2008 has around 1500 485s per month, it can very well end up in any one of those dates for mar / Apr / may 2008
I mean your US address. The USCIS has no need for your Indian address unless you're using CP (which you aren't). If you move you need to fill out the AR11 form and call a number for them to link your application to it. Your lawyer usually does it for you, but some people choose to do it themselves because it's easy and this way you're sure it's done right. Also, ask the lawyer if he's moved, and if so, has he updated his address with the USCIS (not sure what form he'd have to fill out). We often hear about cases where both lawyer and petitioner have moved, and they can't get a hold of the physical RFE letter.
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...&localeLang=en
Hi
My US address and the lawyers is still the same. Haven't moved. I am only going to be travelling and will be out of country between Aug 8 - 22.
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