EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[MATT2012]

I do think we have passed mass RFE stage. But RFE's cannot be ruled out for any reason. But chances of birth/marriage and vaccinations records RFE will be very less as majority of the cases got pre-adjudicated once.

Regarding RFE for interfiling cases after May 2012, logically they should not. But during the mass RFE from Texas even some of those cases were also included. I still think those RFEs were generated without adjudicating officers looking into the cases. Otherwise those many mistakes may not have happened.

[Vkkpnm]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?

[MATT2012]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?

Between October and November, I would say the chances of retrogression in Nov is higher. I expect porting numbers for the next fiscal very similar to this fiscal(may be a little less). The only difference there is no pending demand due to prior retrogression. As porting will stay high, there will not be enough visas from the normal quota to issues GCs. Also there will be pending cases from this fiscal in the beginning of next fiscal. For me all those points to Nov retrogression. Adding to all that, Indiani just confirmed what was communicated about next FY retrogression at AILA conference.

[indiani]

I agree with MATT that you can't necessarily extrapolate what happened last year.

In March 2012, when the highest number of EB2-I cases were approved, the monthly approval rate seems to be about 9k. That takes into account the fact that EB2-I became internally retrogressed from March 23, 2012.

Such a rate may not be possible this year for EB2-I. There is also unusual competition for adjudication resources from EB3-ROW-C-M due to the recent advances in their Cut Off Dates. That is likely to peak from August onwards.

In that case some cases with PD before jan 1st 2008 might not get GC in august itself ( I am not talking about interfilers ) and might have to wait till september.

with interfiling added I think the actual demand might end up being about 10+ thousand , so I am thinking in the same range like matt regarding sept bulletin; dates might move like 2-4 months at the max and I think its hard for someone to make a case for movement beyond may1st.

I will wait till mid-august then call uscis regarding case status, as the email after RFE respose said " decision within 60 days" even though that is generally meant for when dates are current.

[fun4dddd]

I am also in same boat apr 4 so counting days for next bulletin as i may hit/miss by a week from looks of all predictions

Thanks All, Keeping my fingers crossed.

[Spectator]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?

I admit I am struggling on this one.

I don't see how it can't retrogress in October, despite what the VB might imply.

Here's some "facts" as I see them.

a) CO will have to set the October VB about September 8, 2013.

b) Per the law, CO can use estimates based on historical trends when setting the VB Cut Off Date.

c) Visas for the FY usually run out about 2 weeks into September.

d) The Cut Off Date probably includes some contingency, which is why (c) above happens.

e) Unless spillover is released in October, the number of visas available to EB2-I in October is 2,803 * 9% = 252 visas.


By October 1, 2013 demand for EB2-I which CO could see would consist of:

i) The contingency in (d) above that couldn't be approved in FY2013 (spread over several PD years due to random approvals).

ii) Any cases in the 2 week period at the end of September (when dates were still Current, even if visas were not available) for which a visa was requested for the first time (recent applicants and porting).


It's difficult to see how (i) and (ii) above could not be more than 252, or that any reasonable forcast could come up with a figure less than that number.

In theory, CO could give more than 252 to EB2-I and still remain within the overall 9% limit if other EB groups had low demand, but I find it difficult to see how that might be the case, since they will also have some pent up demand from visas running out early in September 2013.

I can only conclude that if the dates do not retrogress in October 2013, it will be a deliberate decision. The problem is that potentially, if the Cut Off Date remains in 2008 for October 2013, the majority of EB2-I initial allocation of 2,803 could be used up in a single month unless internal "corrective action" is taken.

If I read MATT's latest Realistic forecast correctly, he is showing

Porting left over 25% ---------- 1,750
Current Demand Left Over 10% - 1,220

Total -------------------------- 2,970

as the number of cases that will not be approved in FY2013 and carry forward to FY2014 demand.


I've put it out there for criticism. I'm too close to it to see the flaws in the argument.

[vizcard]

im with you Spec..

From a LOGICAL and MATH standpoint, retrogression needs to be happen in Oct.

The only way I see it not happening is if the numbers this year are getting used up in aug itself and there might be a small number of cases that are pending. CO might then decide to address that small pending number in Oct and use up the 2014 quota and perhaps some QSP.

[Niksammy]

As per Matt's forecast/estimate, he expects that close to 25% of applicants will NOT get GC this year. Will this 25 % number primarily include first time i-485 applicants ?

Based on my understanding (which can be completely wrong), I thought a very small percentage of pre-adjudicated folks before 1 Jan 2008 (whether original EB2 folks or porters) who get RFEs(unfortunately in August) might miss the boat this time around. But it seems, that might not be the case(since 25% number looks high to me for pre-adjudicated cases). Any thoughts?

[indiani]

im with you Spec..

From a LOGICAL and MATH standpoint, retrogression needs to be happen in Oct.

The only way I see it not happening is if the numbers this year are getting used up in aug itself and there might be a small number of cases that are pending. CO might then decide to address that small pending number in Oct and use up the 2014 quota and perhaps some QSP.

I can't quote as this is from aila audio

this is what they say: pattern of movement in 2014 will be similar to 2013. ( not 2012)

this is my prediction: retrogression in oct to a point where the monthly quota will be about 300 and wait till last Q and calculate SO then move.

lets say if the DD in for oct shows even 2K , CO cannot keep it at the same date of sept bulletin, he has no choice but to retrogress

[Jagan01]

I can't quote as this is from aila audio

this is what they say: pattern of movement in 2014 will be similar to 2013. ( not 2012)

this is my prediction: retrogression in oct to a point where the monthly quota will be about 300 and wait till last Q and calculate SO then move.

lets say if the DD in for oct shows even 2K , CO cannot keep it at the same date of sept bulletin, he has no choice but to retrogress

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.

[kpt112107]

Just got SMS as "Your case SRCXXXX is now updated. Check My status........".
But I do not see any update / date change in uscis website. I didn't get mail also even subscribed for it. I think it will take a little while to reflect there.
I am not expecting that it is approved...but my intention to post here is just want to let you know that they are working on our cases who ever current in Aug Bulletin

[kumar19]

Just got SMS as "Your case SRCXXXX is now updated. Check My status........".
But I do not see any update / date change in uscis website. I didn't get mail also even subscribed for it. I think it will take a little while to reflect there.
I am not expecting that it is approved...but my intention to post here is just want to let you know that they are working on our cases who ever current in Aug Bulletin

Me too got the SMS but don't see any updates on uscis website.my PD is 07/31/2007 TSC EB2

[Spectator]

As per Matt's forecast/estimate, he expects that close to 25% of applicants will NOT get GC this year. Will this 25 % number primarily include first time i-485 applicants ?

Based on my understanding (which can be completely wrong), I thought a very small percentage of pre-adjudicated folks before 1 Jan 2008 (whether original EB2 folks or porters) who get RFEs(unfortunately in August) might miss the boat this time around. But it seems, that might not be the case(since 25% number looks high to me for pre-adjudicated cases). Any thoughts?

I think you are getting hung up on detail.

I used MATT's figures so as not to impose mine on you and as an example that other people have similar thoughts. I probably owe him an apology for doing so. I don't know at the detail level exactly what they might mean. For example, not all might become demand during October.

The exact number is largely irrelevant - even a quarter is substantially more than 252. That was the point of using the figures.

But as a side effect, the less you think will fall through to FY2014, the the less dates will move in the September VB.

[MATT2012]

Spec,
Let me also start by saying, my thoughts are also very preliminary about retrogression. Before coming into any conclusion I would like to see pattern of approvals for interfile cases.

My current thought process is the majority of the existing interfile cases (June 2012 and July 2013) will be submitted for visa numbers between week 3 and week 6. So when October bulletin comes out the interfiles submitted until that time is approved. The pending demand will start building from second week of September. Secondly as USCIS resources are stretched the NEW interfile applications submitted between August and September will show only by the time of November Bulletin (October 10th). So the carry forward logic in my calculation attempts to capture the overall number with a 25% figure of FY2013 porting. 10% - 15% from existing interfile cases and I gave an overall weightage of 10-15% for interfile cases between August and September (2 months/16 months). So my 25% number is derived from the sum total of both. There could be some additional cases with new I-485; those cases will only get reflected earliest at the time of November bulletin.
With regard to the 10% of existing cases, for those cases visas were already allocated and are not in demand when October bulletin is tabulated, it will appear only when those visas are returned with reason for returning. Due to pro-active RFEs that percentage may slightly come down.
If CO takes a calculated approach for PD setting, which is very well permitted under law the retrogression will happen in October. But if it is based on what is actually pending at the time of October bulletin (Sep 10th), he will wait for one more month.

Niksammy: I hope, I answered your question too.

[pseudonym]

Me too got the SMS but don't see any updates on uscis website.my PD is 07/31/2007 TSC EB2

I'm not sure the text message means much at this point. I received the same text message too right about the same time today, but my PD is March 11, 2008 (EB2I). No actual change to case status when I checked on the USCIS website.

[Spectator]

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.

I think this has been beaten to death already. I suggest you read the posts about on the last few pages.

To precis it.

CO uses the term overall Employment Second preference annual limit to include any Fall Down. He has consistently used it with this meaning over several years of the VBs. The definition of the Employment Second preference annual limit under INA 203(b)(2)(A) (28.6% plus any visas not required for EB1) is the same as CO's use of the term.

CO used essentially the same term “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers in the July VB notes when talking about August and/or September. He must have been including Fall Down in that statement, or it loses any sense.

Without including Fall Down, the dates could not have moved to 01JAN08, there is likely to be no Fall Across from EB2-WW - at best it will be very small. Even the total remaining to EB2-WW today could not cover the movement.

[vizcard]

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.

Without the FB allocation, there is no way the dates would move to Jan 2008.

[Spectator]

MATT,

Thanks for the explanation - very clear.

[Vkkpnm]

So if PD gets retrogress in Oct or Nov or any other month, how far it will go back and stand there ?

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[Kanmani]

Q, Do you still think FD is yet to happen and not accounted this time?

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Qesehmk.

[Niksammy]

Matt,

Yes, you answered my question. Thanks!

[vizcard]

So if PD gets retrogress in Oct or Nov or any other month, how far it will go back and stand there ?

I would expect it to be sometime in 2006..perhaps even Jan 1,2007

[yank]

Gurus,

Is it possible Aug movement is solely from EB1 and EB4 unused visas? FB visas are not yet allocated? Otherwise why there is no movement in EB3 except EB3P has some movement. Also, why there is sudden rise in porting from EB3 WW to EB2 WW.

Please reply.