EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[wolverine82]

[QUOTE=indiani;37343]everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

[indiani]

“Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

[Kanmani]

Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

[vizcard]

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?

not necessarily. In past years, eb2I has got 16K+ visas. It sounds like next year will be lean. this year would have been too without the FB bonus. Inspite of that EB2I is getting about 17K visas total. I think the overall pot itself is getting smaller. But EB2I will consume all of the spillover so hopefully, we'll get close to the 16K mark every year.

Next year, we will get FA from EB2WW and FD from EB1. I can't imagine EB4 and EB5 giving anything meaningul (if anything) at all. Will it be enough to get to the 16-18K mark? dont know yet.

[indiani]

[QUOTE=wolverine82;37344]

everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

[wolverine82]

Thanks appreciate the comments that makes sense!!
[QUOTE=indiani;37348]

sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

[suninphx]

Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

Thanks Kanmani !

[qesehmk]

I am sorry. We don't. That was a fellow EB2I guy - a doctor - who got his GC and is no longer in touch.

Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

[vedu]

Thanks vizcard!

It makes sense to me.

[pseudonym]

Thanks for sharing the gist of the audio recording indiani. It is very much appreciated.

Based on input from various experts on this forum, it seems like 2-4 months movement (at most) is what should happen in the Sep bulletin, but no official indication from CO yet, so it is tough to make that conclusion for sure.

The only tangible thing that still gives me some hope of movement in the Sep bulletin is the PD date range for which the recent RFEs were issued (till March 2008, where most of the significant data points ended). I am hoping that was based on some solid guidance provided from DOS to USCIS. I would hate to think they would bother so many people with RFEs unless they feel some movement is more or less certain. But of course, we can never be sure. I sure hope it moves a significant amount in Sep, but I can only hope at this point. Because it sounds like prospects are very bleak for FY2014 and onwards (without CIR).

[druvraj]

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

[indiani]

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

none about EB 1C

[indiani]

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august

[wolverine82]

I heard someone saying that CO missed putting out DD when there were such rapid movements couple of times..

[MATT2012]

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august

In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

[indiani]

well then not seeing DD is a good thing

[indiani]

In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

[MATT2012]

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

[fun4dddd]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

[indiani]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

50% chance u will be current in sept

[vizcard]

50% chance u will be current in sept

and 100% by July 2014

[Spectator]

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

I agree with MATT that you can't necessarily extrapolate what happened last year.

In March 2012, when the highest number of EB2-I cases were approved, the monthly approval rate seems to be about 9k. That takes into account the fact that EB2-I became internally retrogressed from March 23, 2012.

Such a rate may not be possible this year for EB2-I. There is also unusual competition for adjudication resources from EB3-ROW-C-M due to the recent advances in their Cut Off Dates. That is likely to peak from August onwards.

[Niksammy]

Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

Matt/Q/Spec/Other Gurus,

Do you think that USCIS could be sending out large number of RFEs for already pre-adjudicated porting cases? If yes, do you expect them to be primarily EVL/ proof of status type RFEs or something else like birth/marriage certificates or vaccination records?

For people who have sent interfile requests after May 2012, USCIS should not be asking for EVL since they would have already got one at the time of interfiling. Would love to know your thoughts about this?


-Nik

[MATT2012]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

[wolverine82]

My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

I am also in same boat apr 4 so counting days for next bulletin as i may hit/miss by a week from looks of all predictions