EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[GCKnowHow]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advise

My friend was in same situation in 2011 and all he did was got all the documents ready for his wife and sent a overnight courier so that USCIS will recieve exactly on the day when the VB is effective (your case Aug 1st). Then called them in a week and L3 or L2 officer confirmed the receipt of spouse docs and in couple of weeks both were greened.

[mvkrishna]

My friend was in same situation in 2011 and all he did was got all the documents ready for his wife and sent a overnight courier so that USCIS will recieve exactly on the day when the VB is effective (your case Aug 1st). Then called them in a week and L3 or L2 officer confirmed the receipt of spouse docs and in couple of weeks both were greened.

Thank you, it's reassuring to hear a successful case.

[suninphx]

Spec,
My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs).

Not necessarily- some people may have 2-3 yr experience while applying in EB-3.

[go4green]

Hi, Gurus.

My PD is Jan 2nd 2008. Just missed by one day..(BAD LUCK)
Just wondering if there will be another furthur movement in Sep bulletin.
Any predictions are welcome..Eagerly waiting for some replies from any of our Experts..
Please give me some thoughts..

Thanks

Finally...

Can anyone beat my PD ?

[Spectator]

Spec,
I don't think porting will be 4K next year. My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs). I imagine most of the pre-July 2007 porting will be done (ofcourse this is an presumption on my part). So really it will be -

1)Aug 2007 - Feb 2008 (or whereever we end up this year) - new applications that would get in this fiscal year but will be in the FY14 bucket (not sure if I should call it "demand").
2)March 2008 - June 2009 PDs - new applications at whatever point they get to apply next summer. Given lead times to process these, only a few would get in.

What do you think ?

Also, would #1 show up in EB2 demand data when they are pre-adjudicated? I would think so but I'm not sure.

Vizcard,

Firstly, I want to say it is good that the conversations and debates have started up again.

My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs). I imagine most of the pre-July 2007 porting will be done (ofcourse this is an presumption on my part).

I wouldn't agree with that assumption.

Porting is like a slowly creeping conveyor and not all people have either started the process yet or have completed it, whatever their PD.

People from all years ahead of the EB3-I COD will either be thinking about it, just started or be at some point in the very long process to get an EB2 I-140 approved. There is always a flow of new cases from old PDs.

Porting this year was from 2003 onwards - next year it will be from a point slightly further on, but the end date will also have moved forward as the COD advances. All EB3 cases up to July 2007 will still have an I-485 already on file. That still represents a sizable number who might port.

I agree that in addition to the above, there are those cases left behind from this year and any new ones with relatively late PD that might become Current for the first time when the COD advances.

Only those that have to file an I-485 for the first time late in the FY would realistically stand no chance of an approval in FY2014 - they would form the beginning demand for the next FY.

[Kanmani]

Viz,

Significant number of Pre 2008 EB3 cases were filed so because of company policy, irrespective of qualification.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spectator. So my understanding is that my wife can file for 485 anytime in August, and if my GC is already approved, I can file an I-130 and have her added in Family based quota. Is this correct?

That's correct.

You'd have to decide whether paying the fees associated with an I-30 under F2A is worth it to have 2 chances. You don't have to file the I-130 if you choose not to do so.

[seattlet]

Spec, Why do you consider the slowdown too late ? Considering that Eb2 ROW would be atleast filing 2.5 K cases per month and if folks had their perm approved in 2 months instead of 6 months, All these folks with upto Apr End perm approvals would have fiiled 485 and I140 premium processing. the chance of them getting a GC is around 80 % by end of July ( 3 months for 485)
While not everyone files for premium 140, and not everyone gets their 485 approved in 3 months, even if 50% of folks could have done it, but now couldnt, we still get around 3.5 to 4K visas that will spill over to EB2 I. 4 K visas can help EB2 I to move by another 3 to 4 months (or maybe it was already taken into consideration ? )

redsox,

I totally agree with you that very few EB2-WW cases with a 2013 PD will be approved this FY. Unfortunately, I believe the slowdown in PERM has come too late to have much effect on this year's figures.

I do not have sufficient information to talk about EB2-M or EB2-P.

EB2-ROW currently have about 200 active pending I-485 primary Trackitt cases.

Of those about 135 have a confirmed I-140 approval and are only waiting for the I-485 to be adjudicated. The number is probably nearer 150. By the end of the year, all will have been waiting at least 3 months since the I-140 approval.

Only somewhere between a third and half of those cases need to be approved for EB2-ROW to hit their revised allocation of 32,535 (which includes the additional 3,707 due to FB).

I can't share your optimism.

[cool_dude]

My priority date is June 2011...How long you think I need to wait....I had a perm in 2009.Lawyer made mistakes,which lead to denial...

[Spectator]

Spec, Why do you consider the slowdown too late ? Considering that Eb2 ROW would be atleast filing 2.5 K cases per month and if folks had their perm approved in 2 months instead of 6 months, All these folks with upto Apr End perm approvals would have fiiled 485 and I140 premium processing. the chance of them getting a GC is around 80 % by end of July ( 3 months for 485)
While not everyone files for premium 140, and not everyone gets their 485 approved in 3 months, even if 50% of folks could have done it, but now couldnt, we still get around 3.5 to 4K visas that will spill over to EB2 I. 4 K visas can help EB2 I to move by another 3 to 4 months (or maybe it was already taken into consideration ? )

Let me put it another way.

According to the new LCR, PERM with a PD at the end of January 2013 are currently being Certified. Even with PP of a subsequent I-140 and 3 months I-485 processing, no new I-485 is likely to be approved this FY. In that sense there is a saving because the PD being processed might have been later if there had been no slowdown.

EB2-ROW already have enough pending I-485 with an approved I-140 with a PD in 2012 and earlier to reach their revised allocation and with enough time left for the I-485 to be approved.

The PERM processing slowdown may well have stopped EB2-ROW exceeding their allocation by several thousand, but it is unlikely to stop EB2-ROW reaching it.

I've taken that fact into consideration in any calculations I have made.

Looking ahead, the down side is that potentially several months worth of demand have now been pushed into FY2014. If part of the reason for DOL's lack of productivity in FY2013 has been due to the effects of sequestration, we can expect the processing times to become better after September. If that happens, then FY2014 will have more than 12 months worth of cases.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi Guys,

I know this is not a right forum to ask this question but I need my answer urgently and I know only this group who is very responsive. My PD become current . I am working on h1b, and I have to file my i485. my visa is expired. I have to travel India and was wondering can I travel on AP but continue working on H1B.

What is best option: to apply EAD and start working on it or continue woking on h1b. If my wife had to work, do I have to be working on EAD only?

Appreciate your quick response on this as I have to let my attorney know about it.

Also if anyone have any idea of lawyer fees that will be great. My lawyer is charging 4600 as lawyer fee only for i485/ead/ap for myself, spouse and child. Is this reasonable?

[vizcard]

Hi Guys,

I know this is not a right forum to ask this question but I need my answer urgently and I know only this group who is very responsive. My PD become current . I am working on h1b, and I have to file my i485. my visa is expired. I have to travel India and was wondering can I travel on AP but continue working on H1B.

What is best option: to apply EAD and start working on it or continue woking on h1b. If my wife had to work, do I have to be working on EAD only?

Appreciate your quick response on this as I have to let my attorney know about it.

Also if anyone have any idea of lawyer fees that will be great. My lawyer is charging 4600 as lawyer fee only for i485/ead/ap for myself, spouse and child. Is this reasonable?

Yes you can travel on AP and work on H1B... I'm doing that right now.
You can choose to work on either EAD or H1B. I am still working on H1B even through I have an EAD (same company).
Your wife can work on EAD even if you are on H1B as long as your 485 is pending and she is a dependent on it. Again thats the situation I am in.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Viz. appreciated.

[mesan123]

Congrats Teddy ..

[Spectator]

Not long ago, there was a conversation about the order cases are adjudicated in.

Someone on Trackitt posted a link to a very old (2001) SOP for I-485 processing.

This section might be interesting to some people, although there is no promise that the same workflow is followed today.

Section 6: Workload Distribution

Introduction

After the case is consolidated, connected and purged by File Maintenance, it is routed to Workload Distribution (WD). WD is in charge of staging, routing and distributing files. There are five different types of staging areas that Workload Distribution handles:

• Work ready for adjudication;
• Work awaiting a response from a request for evidence;
• Work awaiting a response from an Intent to Deny;
• Work awaiting submission of an I-89 card;
• Work awaiting a visa number.

WD stages files that had a visa number available at the time of filing; however, between the date of receipt and the date of adjudication, the visa became unavailable. These I-485 filings are otherwise ready for approval.

They are staged chronologically by priority date, preference category and country of chargeability.

More detail:

Procedure for Staging for the Visa Hold Shelf

The Visa Hold Shelf holds cases whereby a visa number was available at the time of filing, however, between the date of receipt and the date of adjudication, the visa became unavailable. These I-485 filings are otherwise ready for approval. These cases are staged chronologically by priority date, preference category and country of chargeability until a visa becomes available. They are reviewed monthly to determine visa availability.

Action: Contractor

1 Stage files for which a visa is not yet available. Stage these files until a visa becomes available.
2 Review files monthly to determine the next appropriate action.

IF a visa is…

Available - The file is pulled and returned to the appropriate adjudicator.

Not available - The file remains on the shelf.

Remember, this is a very old document.

[coolvibe]

Gurus,

You have stopped predicting for a while. I have not seen update on first page for several months. Can Gurus please provide predictions for next bulletin.

[qesehmk]

I think I did it twice in last couple of weeks. Pl check. I am not sure about others though.

Gurus,

You have stopped predicting for a while. I have not seen update on first page for several months. Can Gurus please provide predictions for next bulletin.

[SenorMeow]

As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you!

[Spectator]

As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you!

Thanks for making the effort to do so. I'm glad you have found the content useful.

[qesehmk]

Welcome! I can say this without any hesitation that - political angles aside - yours is the best avatar I have seen on this forum or perhaps anywhere else!!!

As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you!

[Vkkpnm]

Can we expect last prediction for this year i.e. what would be the final PD after 3-4 months? Will PD retrogress like last year?

Thanks

[go4green]

Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.

[qesehmk]

You can't add 6K to the 8+5. 6K is what you sohuld expect as the remaining movement which should be about 3-4 months.

So with upside an downside calculation anywhere between 2-6 months movement is possible.

Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.

[veni001]

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

Congratulations to all folks who will be current in August, it has been a painful wait for 10 months.

[isthereawayout]

Gurus, please help. Mine is a EB3 to EB2 India porting case with a PD of 01/2005. When I emailed NSC to enquire if my case is preadjudicated or not, I got the following reply

================
USCIS records indicate your applications are pending the availability of an employment based Visa. You are 2nd preference from India with a priority date of January 06, 2005. Currently there are Visas available for applicants with a priority date earlier than that of September 01, 2004 at this time. Your applications will be processed when a Visa based on your classification and preference becomes available.
================

1. Can I assume my case is preadjudicated?
2. Do I need to send an interfiling letter?

Thanks