EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Pedro Gonzales]

Is the date movement done in the current VB accommodates for the following scenarios:
1. An x% of people who have PD before 2008-1-1 and have i-485 filed might still not get GC issued due to some reason or the other. This should give out some visas to be reallocated. Has CO already added a buffer to accommodate for these extra visas in the cut-off date or could we see little movement in the upcoming months?
2. Does the current date movement accounts for all the spillover or is there some spillover that CO is holding on to apply in Sep VB?
Thanks,

1. If an application is pre-adjudicated, it will receive a green card automatically. I don't think CO has considered the very small % of applications that will be denied (due to unsatisfactory RFE responses), but I expect that to be a very small %.
2. I think most of us believe that the current movement does not account for all spillover. Some of us believe that Fall Across from EB1, EB4 and EB5 is not included, and others believe it is included but that there will likely be a small additional movement in September as more information becomes available about EB1, EB2ROW, and EB4 usage.

[sandyn16]

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

[chittoor]

Kanmani, I am in Eb3 to Eb2 porting with 2005 PD, should i wait for August 1 st to contact USCIS to raise SR for Interfiling or can i do it now.

[infoseek]

CO clearly refrained from making even slight indications as to future movement... essentially he was saying in FY14 the dates will retrogess at some point (public knowledge) and follwed it up with very helpful prediction that ....that point can occur anytime. In the absence of any explicit information we have no choice but to resort to underlying motivations for the ambiguity..

I think the dates will definitely move bit more aggressively in the next VB ... especially as CO as already made his disclaimer. Release the dates till all current Visa # are exhausted (before new demand creeps in from porting). Judging by the numbers presented in the thread... likely till Aug/Sep 2008.

Another point would be "lack of movement" for EB2 China... I doubt that EB3 China porting would cause this ....as it's PD is ahead of EB2C. Maybe they are intending to bring EB2C and EB2I to same PD ... which might likely be around Sep/Oct 2008.... I won't be surprised if it even goes into 2009, what is there to loose... if more demand sets in they can always retrogress. The preference, IMHO, would be to not hold the preadjudicated cases in backlog for too long.

[qesehmk]

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

[vizcard]

Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

[bieber]

Congrats Teddy

hope you will find time to relax a bit

[geevikram]

Hey Teddy,
Congratulations. Was wondering if you had abandoned us after your GC.

Nice to see you here again.

-Vik

[MATT2012]

Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

My sense is that he will move it to the furthest date he feels he can surely cover. no more no less. Whether thats July 2007, Dec 2007 or Feb 2008..I don't know. The Sept move will be whatever is left over.

I remembered one of your earlier posts as soon as August VB came out, I think this holds really well where we are today(so copied above). I agree completely that next move will not be aggressive and will be just few more months.

As a side note: Congrats to all who got current in August VB and All the Best. Congrats Teddy, each baby adds a new perspective to life. God Bless)

[chittoor]

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status doesn't require the COD to be current. You could have done it already.

This is totally different from EB3 to EB2 conversion .

Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

[vizcard]

If these patterns hold for a few more months, then we might easily reach 2009. That could be a possible headline for the next year's thread.

I believe the final date will be April 2008, which won't really be bad after the stall for the last 16 months.

With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.

[Kanmani]

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

I was digging into USCIS documents to find one as required by you. Here I am going to call back my earlier posts as I was wrong.

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status does require the COD must be current.

I apologize for the confusion.

[Kanmani]

Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

Chitoor,

Attorneys' in general are sending the written request well in advance with an exception of few. USCIS will not act upon the case until the PD is current. So go with your attorney's decision.

[Kanmani]

Teddy, Congratulations!

[Spectator]

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

redsox,

I totally agree with you that very few EB2-WW cases with a 2013 PD will be approved this FY. Unfortunately, I believe the slowdown in PERM has come too late to have much effect on this year's figures.

I do not have sufficient information to talk about EB2-M or EB2-P.

EB2-ROW currently have about 200 active pending I-485 primary Trackitt cases.

Of those about 135 have a confirmed I-140 approval and are only waiting for the I-485 to be adjudicated. The number is probably nearer 150. By the end of the year, all will have been waiting at least 3 months since the I-140 approval.

Only somewhere between a third and half of those cases need to be approved for EB2-ROW to hit their revised allocation of 32,535 (which includes the additional 3,707 due to FB).

I can't share your optimism.

[Spectator]

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers

Teddy,

Many congratulations!

What a glutton for punishment.

[wolverine82]

Congrats Teddy!!!

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers

[Spectator]

With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.

vizcard,

That is an extra 12-14k SOFAD plus next year's porting numbers (plus any cases "left behind" this year (although as a rolling number they can maybe be discounted)).

At perhaps 4k porting, the number suddenly becomes 16-18k. Without some help from extra FB numbers, that might be a stretch IMO.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, bieber, geevikram, MATT2012 , sportsfan33 , Kanmani , Spectator and all friends thanks a lot for your warm wishes. I cannot imagine life not being on the immigration forums! yes things have been busy with a lot of things including the new one. Feels good really that finally all 2007 folks will be greened this Aug.

[GhostWriter]

Very nicely laid out sportsfan33.

I agree, the net forward movement has certainly been disappointing in EB2-I (in terms of GC issuance, so excluding the forward moves to generate demand and the backward moves to suppress porting)

FY 2012 - 4-months (15-Apr-2007 in Sep-2011 to 15-Aug-2007 in May-2012, after that EB2-I became unavailable. May be we can add 2-3 months to account for GCs issued to 2008 PDs. )

FY 2013 - 4.5 months so far (15-Aug-2007 in May-2012 to 01-Jan-08 in Aug-2013). Probably another 3 months in Sep bulletin.


So overall 7-8 months a year in last two years.

Great news finally with the August bulletin. I went back and checked the previous visa bulletins from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an exceptional year and not applicable) and in each instance, I saw on an average a 3 month jump in the September bulletin. This was especially true when the jump in August was big (like in 2008). Simply going by the past indicator, I think there will be a similar jump this year too.

[chittoor]

Chitoor,

Attorneys' in general are sending the written request well in advance with an exception of few. USCIS will not act upon the case until the PD is current. So go with your attorney's decision.

Thank You.

[mvkrishna]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advise

[Spectator]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advise

mvkrishna,

The requirement to file as your derivative under EB is that you were:

a) Married BEFORE your I-485 was approved.

b) She is not ineligible to file I-485 e.g more than 180 days Out of Status/Unauthorized Employment since her last admission to the USA.

Some Immigration Attorneys are suggesting that submitting the I-485 and also filing an I-130 petition under F2A (after the primary is approved) is a viable strategy to give 2 bites at the apple. The I-485 can be linked to an approved I-130 if that becomes Current more quickly.

[mvkrishna]

mvkrishna,

The requirement to file as your derivative under EB is that you were:

a) Married BEFORE your I-485 was approved.

b) She is not ineligible to file I-485 e.g more than 180 days Out of Status/Unauthorized Employment since her last admission to the USA.

Some Immigration Attorneys are suggesting that submitting the I-485 and also filing an I-130 petition under F2A (after the primary is approved) is a viable strategy to give 2 bites at the apple. The I-485 can be linked to an approved I-130 if that becomes Current more quickly.

Thanks Spectator. So my understanding is that my wife can file for 485 anytime in August, and if my GC is already approved, I can file an I-130 and have her added in Family based quota. Is this correct?

[Guest123]

What is the total spillover expected from all categories (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4, EB5) that can be applied to EB2I ? Any clarifications ? What is the expected range of porting numbers prior to 01/01/2008 ?