EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[bvsamrat]

What I see (IMHO) is

porters between 2003-2007 follow a guassian pattern with peak centered around 2005 and taper off at the edges. Hence 2006-end to 2007 who interfile now (between May 2012-June 2013) would be quite a few compared to porters who interfile during last 6 months in the region of 2004-2005.

FYI- 600 per month interfile every month(only pre-july 2007 Eb3). if 350-400 lie before 2005 and part of them get greened and keep the PD at 2004 SEP and leave the balance added to demand.

Balance 200-300 get added every month to demand and hence rise in demand numbers.

Just my thoughts only

I agree there are few additions. The additions this fiscal is not significant enough to classify as porting. Given the fact that that EB2I cutoff dates did not move this fiscal suggests that porting cases are very high from 2003/2004. By that logic portings will be high from Sep 2004 to Mid 2007. General estimates for EB2I porting numbers are from 4000 - 7500. So far the additions are only in the hundreds. So between Sep 2004-2008 the additions that happened are pre-dominantly regrouping under earliest PD from existing EB2I I485 applications. For eg. some cases may have more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, USCIS would have listed the case by the later priority date. Based on my observation, that could be the main reason for demand reduction in later PDs and the increase in earlier PDs.

There is also a chance of few hundred CP cases in EB2I demand. As April Inventory and May Demand data are relatively same, there is a chance that some cases in inventory of April was not there in May demand. So that is also one of the reasons for additions in June and July Demand data. A few hundred CP cases was just a general thought.

[IJune05]

Streamline Procedure for I-485

Taking the above discussion further,I am aware that TSC had implemented sometime back in 2008, an email procedure for AILA members to identify dormat I-485s.
Here's the link to the article that I saved

Can I ask if someone on this board is aware if a similar process exists for NSC

Thanks

[Niksammy]

Streamline Procedure for I-485

Taking the above discussion further,I am aware that TSC had implemented sometime back in 2008, an email procedure for AILA members to identify dormat I-485s.
Here's the link to the article that I saved

Can I ask if someone on this board is aware if a similar process exists for NSC

Thanks

Fragomen lawyer handling my Eb3 to Eb2 porting / interfiling case clearly mentioned using this process/feature when my date becomes current (rather than having me contact a senator). They also mentioned a phone number which ONLY AILA members can use to request USCIS to expedite porting cases once dates become current (in case of lack of action by USCIS). My case is being handled by TSC.

I do not know if these options are available for TSC only, but I would believe that these options should be available for NSC as well.

[NOV2007]

This time to see EB2I PD movement it was a long wait, I guess everybody are anxious to see PD moving and people who have already filed I485 expecting GC card print and people who are applying for the first time eager to get EAD atleast. In my case am undergoing manager nightmare everyday, just for the sake of completing GC process am with this organization. I missed it, back in 2011 due to personal reasons. I wish good luck to all visitors of this forum to get their GC as quickly as they can. Am just waiting on who will be the first person who notify this thread with the sweet news that is expected tomorrow. Thanks to that person in advance.

Fragomen lawyer handling my Eb3 to Eb2 porting / interfiling case clearly mentioned using this process/feature when my date becomes current (rather than having me contact a senator). They also mentioned a phone number which ONLY AILA members can use to request USCIS to expedite porting cases once dates become current (in case of lack of action by USCIS). My case is being handled by TSC.

I do not know if these options are available for TSC only, but I would believe that these options should be available for NSC as well.

[ragx08]

This time to see EB2I PD movement it was a long wait, I guess everybody are anxious to see PD moving and people who have already filed I485 expecting GC card print and people who are applying for the first time eager to get EAD atleast. In my case am undergoing manager nightmare everyday, just for the sake of completing GC process am with this organization. I missed it, back in 2011 due to personal reasons. I wish good luck to all visitors of this forum to get their GC as quickly as they can. Am just waiting on who will be the first person who notify this thread with the sweet news that is expected tomorrow. Thanks to that person in advance.

I was one of those fortunate people to apply I-485 in Jan 2012 and receive my cards a couple of days before the big freeze. But I still keep checking this site and VBs ... waiting to hear good news from friends. I hope the long wait for many will come to an end in the next two months.

[indiani]

DD still not yet out

if DD doesn't come out today, there is a good chance that VB might be postponed until 11th. may be they want to have real good view at the picture before moving the dates.hopefully much further than jan 2008

[vizcard]

DD still not yet out

if DD doesn't come out today, there is a good chance that VB might be postponed until 11th. may be they want to have real good view at the picture before moving the dates.hopefully much further than jan 2008

Is there a reason you think its coming out today vs Thurs? I would imagine the VB will be out on Friday anyway.

[indiani]

Is there a reason you think its coming out today vs Thurs? I would imagine the VB will be out on Friday anyway.

DD (followed by VB usually within 24 hours) can come any hour from now, just cant say exactly when.
almost certainly by friday.

[billu77]

DD (followed by VB usually within 24 hours) can come any hour from now, just cant say exactly when.
almost certainly by friday.

I think the DD will be out in AM tomorrow and the VB between 5-6pm EST tomorrow.

[eb2visa]

I think the DD will be out in AM tomorrow and the VB between 5-6pm EST tomorrow.

Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movement

[eb2visa]

EMPLOYMENT-based:

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. It is expected that such movement will generate a significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time.

[yank]

Visa bulletin is out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6028.html

Still have to wait for 23 days

Congratulations! Finally there is a movement.

[NOV2007]

eb2visa.

Thanks for notifying this thread. You stand first one to notify all of us.
Thanks to Qeseh/Spec and other Guru's as your prediction is 100%. You guys and this forum just rocks.

Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movement

[Spectator]

Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movement

Hmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

[eb2visa]

Hmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

I will see it as good sign as to where India's could move up to.

[bieber]

It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?

[qesehmk]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

But now that it hasn't I believe Sep does have the potential to have that movement.

Hmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

[eb2visa]

It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?

Everything is accounted for...

[erikbond101]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

For this reason I actually think that final movement in September will be minimal (0-3 months max) now that EB2IC have caught up.

Man ...I really hope it reaches may 08 in next VB...but logically it will stay around March 15...in next VB

[seattlet]

it would a big surprise if EB2 spillover itself can move dates to 2008. I think it is just the wording in the bulletin.

Guru's

Any idea if there can be further movement next month ?
IMHO if there aint any movement next month, we will see EB2 I either stay at Jan 2008 for few months (or 10 months just like this year) or retrogress (as mentioned in the bulletin).

[qesehmk]

Although the bulletin doesn't give any indication of sep movement here is what it does:
A) It talked of retrogression only in FY 2014. So that's a good thing. At least Jan 08 will definitely be cleared now and it ensures FIFO ... in other words ... much less likelihood that people ahead in line don't get approved vs behind in line do.
B) EB3C date hasn't moved .... to me it means potential for EB2I to catch up through SOFAD and so I would expect some movement in Sep. Dont know how much. But it will be a measured movement for sure. I can't see a jerky movement. So bottomline anywhere between 0-6 months.

[natvyas]

What is a little surprising is that in the July Bulletin is was stated that EB2-C would have movement up to 2 months and there was no movement for that category this month.

Why would they stall the Eb2 C movement like this? Has EB2C used up its allocation which resulted from the fall-down from unused visa for FB category?

[Spectator]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

But now that it hasn't I believe Sep does have the potential to have that movement.

Q,

I assume you mean EB2-C, not EB3-C.

Movement to date for EB2-C has been:

- VB ------ COD---
Aug 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jul 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jun 13 - 15-Jul-08
May 13 - 15-May-08
Apr 13 - 01-Apr-08
Mar 13 - 15-Feb-08
Jan 13 - 15-Jan-08
Feb 13 - 08-Dec-07
Dec 12 - 22-Oct-07
Nov 12 - 01-Sep-07
Oct 12 - 15-Jul-07

so I don't understand your comment about stalling in the July VB - it had slowed slightly, but it was still 3 weeks movement.

As natvyas points out, it is out of kilter with what the July VB had said.

[qesehmk]

Spec - Indeed I meant EB2C. I was so much hung up on that even when I was reading EB3C it registered as EB2C.

Anyway ... but that's what I am thinking that EB2IC will probably catch up in the best case scenario). WE will see.

Q,

I assume you mean EB2-C, not EB3-C.

Movement to date for EB2-C has been:

- VB ------ COD---
Aug 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jul 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jun 13 - 15-Jul-08
May 13 - 15-May-08
Apr 13 - 01-Apr-08
Mar 13 - 15-Feb-08
Jan 13 - 15-Jan-08
Feb 13 - 08-Dec-07
Dec 12 -22-Oct-07
Nov 12 - 01-Sep-07
Oct 12 - 15-Jul-07

so I don't understand your comment about stalling in the July VB - it had slowed slightly, but it was still 3 weeks movement.

As natvyas points out, it is out of kilter with what the July VB had said.

[suninphx]

Congratulations to all who are current per Aug VB. Hope every one gets GC this FY. Good luck all !