EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiani]

"Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: June 7, 2013 " from last bulletin

as last one came on 7th and CO apparently eager to move to 2008 jan, I think there is a good chance VB will be released tomorrow

[erikbond101]

Indiani..you really are an oracle...good work

[qesehmk]

Updated header to confirm the calculations last week. Other than that no changes really.

p.s. - Visa bulletin generally gets published on the friday of first FULL week or 10th of each month - whichever is later.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

[qesehmk]

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.

Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

[qesehmk]

VK,

I didn't realize there could be people without 485 filed from 2007 EB2. In that case

Worst case is - CO can retrogress the dates on a technicality and you will have to wait till next Sep.
Best Case is - If you file next month i.e. August or Sep ... with 485 processing time of 3-4 months ... we are talking about Dec 2013-Jan 2014.

Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

[Niksammy]

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

[qesehmk]

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

[Kanmani]

Q,

I differ from your opinion here.

I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

PS :Speculation, I may call it , older I-485 is already processed with a request for visa number pending in EB3, here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former, not that the approvals should happen at the same time .

[Niksammy]

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

Makes total sense. Thanks a lot for the explanation.

[qesehmk]

Q,
I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.

here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former

What is the basis for this opinion?

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.

No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.

What is the basis for this opinion?

Final step in conversion of eb3 to eb2 is not due until August 1st, it will take sometime (few days?) to appear in the Demand Data, I do not think DoS will hold the approvals of straight forward cases who are already waiting for more than a year in the DD.

I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.

[qesehmk]

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

So then all of this leaves us with the option I mentioned above. ONLY WHEN PD's are comparably close then RD takes over.

No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.

I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.

Yes .. and my contention is that a preadj case is already in the basket and hence there shouldn't be any delay whatsoever.

[Kanmani]

Yes in a situation, when somebody missed their boat in 2007 and filed their I-485 in the month of feb 2012 along with 2009 ers.

Pre-adj case is not in the DoS basket yet.

[Spectator]

Here is what the INA says:

INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(e) Order of Consideration. -

(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a).

Since a petition is the I-140, it says that in theory, an earlier filed I-140 with a later PD should be processed before a later filed I-140 with an earlier PD.

In practice, I think that, to USCIS, an I-485 is either Current or it is not and the PD or RD is somewhat irrelevant to them. On that basis, it becomes purely luck of the draw as to when a case that is Current is picked up.

That certainly seemed to be the case last year when 2008 PD cases were approved ahead of 2007 PD cases. There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

[qesehmk]

Spec - I almost wrote that but thought it would confuse people all the more and hence didn't.

There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

[Kanmani]

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

You got confused between processing vs approvals.

EB1 cases are approved much earlier than Eb2 because of the availability of visa numbers.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

Processing a case is adjudicating the case right? Whenever there is non availability of visa number occurs, the processing of a case stops at Pre-adjudication stage

"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

[longwait100]

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these (i.e assigning a visa number) based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

[Kanmani]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...8rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.

[indiani]

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

[IJune05]

I believe the quantity weighs more than FIFO. Before DOS decides to retrogress EB2I in the coming months, I hope all applicants before the cut off date are approved unless there is are "non visa availability" reasons to not to approve any applicant

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

[qesehmk]

Processing a case is not adjudicating. Adjudication is a small part of processing.

EB1 case indeed gets approved before EB2 (mostly) ... but then doesn't that require processing?

What you quote below applies when as I said the categories and countries are same and PD is comparably closer. That's when yes indeed RD would take over. Otherwise PD would rule.

"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

[longwait100]

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

indiani, you may be right, I don't know what the real answer is...the point that I was trying to make in my earlier post is that luck will have a smaller role to play this time due to the fact that when a case is pre-adjudicated it has already been picked and processed (so no luck factor required for getting picked)...the part that remains to be understood then is what basis does the USCIS follow to grant a visa number to these pre-adjudicated cases...so in your example, what basis would USCIS use to grant a visa number to a pre-adjudicated case from 2005 versus 2007 when both current?...PD, RD or something else?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - this actually supports what I am saying - which is - FIFO doesn't work where visa availability is issue i.e. across categories and countries.

FIFO works when country and categories are same and PDs are comparable.

Where visa itself is not available i.e. for backlogged countries - there is no way a 2010 EB2I case will be processed ahead of 2007 EB2I cases even if 2007 EB2I case was filed later - unless both become current. Only when both 2010 and 2007 cases are current and 2007 was filed just now whereas 2010 was in the mix for a long time and hence was preadjudicated .. only in such extreme scenario 2010 would be processed and approved ahead of 2007. However that wouldn't be because of RD.

Visa availability and PD plays much bigger role in processing and approvals than RD.

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...8rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.