EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Niksammy]

Interfile and AC21 180 day rule

Gurus,

After successful interfiling and linking of a pending I-485 to new EB2 I-140( from old Eb-3 I-140), do we need to wait for 180 days from the day interfiling happened before switching to a similar job using AC21.

My I-485 has been pending since 2007 and my new EB2 I-140 was linked to it last week. Does this mean that I need to wait for 180 days before using AC21. My PD of Dec 2006 will be current next month.

The reason for asking this question is that I work for a Fortune 500 company and my company is planning to spin off my division to open a new company pending board approval. Though this process might take more than a month and I am trying my best to ensure that they do not move to this new company till I get my gc, I just wanted to know what my options are in case they move me to a new company with exactly similar role.

[pseudonym]

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

I have asked my attorney to share any information that they may have from the AILA meeting as well, but I haven't heard back from them yet. I'm waiting for the August bulletin to see if there might be any insight from CO about the September bulletin. If not, and if my March '08 PD does not become current in August bulletin (which looks like it probably may not), I am seriously considering purchasing the audio recording of the AILA meeting available at the following link (which Spec had pointed out in one of his earlier posts):

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail...el=description

If anyone else is interested in pitching in at that time, we can share the downloaded material amongst ourselves and probably provide a gist to the group here (due to legality, or lack thereof, of sharing original files). Let me know if anybody is interested in pitching in.

[indiani]

I have asked my attorney to share any information that they may have from the AILA meeting as well, but I haven't heard back from them yet. I'm waiting for the August bulletin to see if there might be any insight from CO about the September bulletin. If not, and if my March '08 PD does not become current in August bulletin (which looks like it probably may not), I am seriously considering purchasing the audio recording of the AILA meeting available at the following link (which Spec had pointed out in one of his earlier posts):

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail...el=description

If anyone else is interested in pitching in at that time, we can share the downloaded material amongst ourselves and probably provide a gist to the group here (due to legality, or lack thereof, of sharing original files). Let me know if anybody is interested in pitching in.

I will buy and tell u whats in it

[indiani]

i tried to buy but it appears that we can't download right away and its going to be shipped which might reach me at the same time bulltin is released. moreover this message concerned me:


Attention Non-Members

AILA will not accept orders or conference registrations from persons who provide representation without authorization in violation of 8 CFR Part 292 such as for profit "immigration consultants" and "notarios". Please check this box as proof of compliance with the above restrictions

[qesehmk]

You don't fall in that category indiani. That is meant for people who would try to obtain information on behalf of somebody without authorization e.g. I trying to get your case status when you haven't explicitely given me the consent.

i tried to buy but it appears that we can't download right away and its going to be shipped which might reach me at the same time bulltin is released. moreover this message concerned me:


Attention Non-Members

AILA will not accept orders or conference registrations from persons who provide representation without authorization in violation of 8 CFR Part 292 such as for profit "immigration consultants" and "notarios". Please check this box as proof of compliance with the above restrictions

[indiani]

This 60 minute session was recorded at the AILA Annual Conference in June 2013. This product includes an audio recording in MP3 format and a PDF file of PowerPoint presentation slides and/or articles needed for CLE Credit; available for download via your Digital Library on Agora.

probably i can download rightaway, i will buy and see what happens

[indiani]

Read the entire downloaded version, nothing new, may be its useful for someone who wants to know how the dates are moved.

I think the entire reason of waiting till august is to deprive all new ( i-140 approved and never 485 filed ) applicants of ability to get GC this fiscal year as these are not known in the DD, rest of them are reflected in the DD.

[pseudonym]

Read the entire downloaded version, nothing new, may be its useful for someone who wants to know how the dates are moved.

I think the entire reason of waiting till august is to deprive all new ( i-140 approved and never 485 filed ) applicants of ability to get GC this fiscal year as these are not known in the DD, rest of them are reflected in the DD.

Thanks indiani for providing feedback on the downloaded version. It is disappointing to hear that there is not much information about future projections. The AILA download link says the following:

------------------------
"The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice. Primary sources from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) will provide insight into the following:

-Interaction Between Family¡V and Employment-Based Preferences
-Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
-Charting the Interaction
-FY 2014 Projections and Beyond..."
------------------------

I would have thought they might have at least spent some time talking about the last point (2014 projections).

Let's hope CO includes some additional information in the Aug bulletin.

[indiani]

Thanks indiani for providing feedback on the downloaded version. It is disappointing to hear that there is not much information about future projections. The AILA download link says the following:

------------------------
"The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice. Primary sources from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) will provide insight into the following:

-Interaction Between Family¡V and Employment-Based Preferences
-Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
-Charting the Interaction
-FY 2014 Projections and Beyond..."
------------------------

I would have thought they might have at least spent some time talking about the last point (2014 projections).

Let's hope CO includes some additional information in the Aug bulletin.

The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

[NOV2007]

Indiani,

We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.

The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

[indiani]

Indiani,

We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.

Thanks for ur kind words. My information is based on 2 sources shusterman and Oh.
moreover we didn't hear any other contradictory source and also logically thinking even before this prediction came , in my posts I have mentioned that august bulletin should clear upto end of 2007.
Bought the aila conference audio but unfortunately it will be available to hear a week from now.
The PDF version didnt mention august bulletin.
either me or anyone else can only gather data, understand process and apply logic, some like spec are far better than others . so until we see the bulletin there is no 100% guarantee.

"Update (June 27): EB2 India is expected to reach Jan 1, 2008 in the Aug VB." from blog.mygcvisa. , not sure if they also got this info from Oh or some other source

[Mini Kumar]

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

[indiani]

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

[desitiger]

I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

[indiani]

I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

perhaps either on 8th or 9th the bulletin with COD and prediction for sept will be there.
last month surprisingly bulletin came out on 7th few hrs after the DD.
so i expect the bulletin could be released few hrs to max. 1 day after DD released

[Vkkpnm]

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

[indiani]

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

there is small percentage of chance you will get GC in 60 days even when they retrogress but if they don't retrogress for 1-2 months ( oct, nov )you have 99% chance of GC.

I spoke with my attorney who attended AILA and she confirmed the jan 2008 date ( have to pay for the call but thought worth it ).

[chewbaca]

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

[indiani]

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

I think jan is well known fact but exact date no one knows, could be feb 1 also.
if turns out to be jan 1, u cant apply

[chewbaca]

Thanks indiani for answering.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Indiani

[gcpursuit]

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

[indiani]

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

Its very unlikely the dates move beyond mid 2008. IMHO most likely they just will cover march 2008.

They have to follow the law and remain within the annual 158K ( including FB).

If they move to 2009 , they will end up leaving majority of earlier PD's which will be highly irresponsible.

Thanks for sharing your info but I dont make much out of it

[longgcque]

This indeed is a good news. NVC notice has always been a leading indicator of date advancement. Lets wait for more such confirmations.
Thanks for sharing buddy

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

[vizcard]

NVC fee notices are valid for a year. So it just means that June 2009 may be current in the next 12 months.