EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiani]

Spec,

Did you get a chance to analyze the links posted in your below post. Is there any indications on to what date COD could reach in AUG2013VB? If I can get to know exactly what the COD can be in AUG2013 I can plan accordingly(I mean I can have buffer time). Otherwise no other go I need to wait untill Jul10 to make some personal decisions and then I have to act in rush if COD reaches end of 2007. Your help here will be greately appreciated.

EB2I- Jan1st 2008 ( Aug bulletin )
based on law firm website ( this is the latest and best prediction out there )

[Spectator]

USCIS All Forms Data for Q1 FY2013 has finally been published.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2013-qtr1.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2013-qtr1.csv

I-485 Employment Adjustment Receipts

October 2012 --- 5,794
November 2012 - 10,009
December 2012 -- 8,129

Total --------- 23,932


I-485 Employment Adjustment Approvals

October 2012 -- 12,587
November 2012 - 12,077
December 2012 -- 8,869

Total --------- 33,533


These numbers only include applications processed by USCIS i.e. AOS

27% of the 140,000 EB allocation that were known about at that time is 37,800.

Assuming that number was hit (as seems likely), CP numbers would represent 11.3% of the total.

As suspected, it appears that approvals had to be throttled in December 2012 to stay within the 27% limit.

[coolvibe]

Guru's while we are hearing that in August Bulletin dates will reach Jan 1st 2008 for EB2 folks , do you honestly see any further moment into end of Feb 2008 or into March 2008 by Sept Bulletin?

[indiani]

Guru's while we are hearing that in August Bulletin dates will reach Jan 1st 2008 for EB2 folks , do you honestly see any further moment into end of Feb 2008 or into March 2008 by Sept Bulletin?

most likely it might advance few months. you can wait for CO's prediction when the bulletin is out to get better sense.

[pdmay2008]

I worked for TCS before 6 years ago and I have several friends in TCS. I heard from my friends that they are collecting data for all the L1A candidates to apply for GC in coming months under EB1. This is a big blow for EB2-I resources.

They are doing this in preparation for the new CIR law( if it passes house). Even if it does not pass house they are going to do GCs for some of them as a back up plan.

[indiani]

only one attorney' s website so far mentioned the jan 2008 COD and as of today I was expecting more to share the news ( assuming that news is reliable from immigration-law )

[Guest123]

What are the chances of Mar 2008 PD to become current this year? If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?

[indiani]

What are the chances of Mar 2008 PD to become current this year?

this fiscal year, most likely

If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?

if cir passess, when its effective everyone will be 'C'. as it still has to go to house , then thru conference, no one can say exact effective date.
too soon to say when dates will move next fiscal yr

[WaitingGC]

Shusterman Posted in his website

July 2013 Visa Bulletin – This month’s Visa Bulletin contains some good news, especially for those waiting in line for the worldwide employment-based third category. We include the State Department’s predictions for the next few months. We learned at the AILA Conference in San Francisco last week that the State Department intends to advance India EB-2 to January 2008 in August and that worldwide family-based 2A will become current.

http://shusterman.com/newsletterusim...LY2013.html#a8

[indiani]

Shusterman Posted in his website

July 2013 Visa Bulletin – This month’s Visa Bulletin contains some good news, especially for those waiting in line for the worldwide employment-based third category. We include the State Department’s predictions for the next few months. We learned at the AILA Conference in San Francisco last week that the State Department intends to advance India EB-2 to January 2008 in August and that worldwide family-based 2A will become current.

http://shusterman.com/newsletterusim...LY2013.html#a8

Thanks for the link.

I guess as everyone thinks that feb 2008 is going to be reached by sept; murthy, fragomen and other sites aren't particularly excited about this latest prediction by DOS.

I think now if it doesn't move to atleast jan 2008, its going to be extremely dissappointing but I guess it appears the chances are extremely high that COD will be jan 2008

[indiasunil]

Most of the LAW Forums posting as Jan 1st 2008 in July Visa Bulletin.. Is it True ? As I see there is no concrete information anywhere, everyone showing fingers on others.

[indiani]

Most of the LAW Forums posting as Jan 1st 2008 in July Visa Bulletin.. Is it True ? As I see there is no concrete information anywhere, everyone showing fingers on others.

jan 2008 came up only after AILA.
If you are aware of any other site other than oh and shusterman, please share the link.
Its only a week or so from now before we know for sure but it might feel like a looong time

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Just a word of caution on date movements. Date movements are at the mercy of DOS and hence quite difficult to predict. There is nobody except CO / DOS who can say with certainty when and how the dates will move month to month.

However, the way this forum has established forecasting - if one follows the discipline of looking at inventory, looking at past trends, labor data, I-140 data etc and then try to calculate (or better yet simulate visa allocation process) - one can easily predict where dates will be approximately at by the end of current fiscal.

Given that apparently this particular piece of info came from CO (in an AILA meeting apparently) the info is credible. But as we have always said - don't agonize over month to month movement. Try to see hte big picture and understand generate trend. Nobody can ever predict very precise dates unless USCIS/DOS start publishing monthly inventory and usage.

[seattlet]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

[indiani]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

I remember last year's movements and never given much weight to CO's predictions but this time around even though oh's firm is not one of the best known sites, the actual expected cutoff dates in aug/ sept coincides with what he (oh) has mentioned for august and moreover shusterman mentioned the same.

I would say there is 95% chance that it will be jan 1 08 IMHO.

[longwait100]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

It is practically impossible for anyone to guarantee a certain COD before the VB is released. In my opinion, we should consider CO's prediction made at the AILA meeting more as an indication of what's coming in the Aug/Sep VBs rather than holding him exactly to those dates.
Based on the data and calculations that many have done for making the EB2I COD predictions on this forum as well as other, we know that the dates for EB2I will certainly advance, anywhere from the end of 2007 to early 2008 by the Sep VB. So looking from that perspective, a COD of Jan 1st 2008 in the Aug VB is in line with most people's expectations/calculations.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Once dates move to Jan 08 in the Aug VB, starting 1st of August , will approvals tirckle down based on the Priority dates or will it be the haphazard manner like the last time. WHat are the general guidlines for approvals during a big movement such as this upcoming one . Also, for those applications that were Rfed earlier in 2012 and responded to , with out any new RFE now , is it assumed to be pre-adjudicated and just awaiting visa # allocation . I understand technically an RFE could be issued any time .

[qesehmk]

Header updated with latest predictions. I am slightly more optimistic than previously. Good luck.

[bieber]

Q

conflict of interest wouldn't harm anything in this case. Hope you will reconsider your decision and continue to contribute

[indiani]

Once dates move to Jan 08 in the Aug VB, starting 1st of August , will approvals tirckle down based on the Priority dates or will it be the haphazard manner like the last time. WHat are the general guidlines for approvals during a big movement such as this upcoming one . Also, for those applications that were Rfed earlier in 2012 and responded to , with out any new RFE now , is it assumed to be pre-adjudicated and just awaiting visa # allocation . I understand technically an RFE could be issued any time .

it depends upon whether a case is already pre-adjudicated or interfile and also the service center and IMHO they randomly pick from all the applications which are current, in the sense dec 2007 can get few days before jan 2005.

Mine is pure speculation and others may differ in how the GC's are issued based on PD, I will be glad as long as they issue mine in august ( 2007 PD).

I think most of the applications should be pre-adjudicated by august 1st, so most ( not all ) of the GC's may be issued in the first 1 week ( even though when I asked spec the same question he felt GC's might be issued through out the month and it makes sense as there will be approx 10K issued ),

P.S : my opinions are biased based on expectancy bias and not as objective as others who aren't counting days for the GC

[Eb2_Dec07]

it depends upon whether a case is already pre-adjudicated or interfile and also the service center and IMHO they randomly pick from all the applications which are current, in the sense dec 2007 can get few days before jan 2005.

Mine is pure speculation and others may differ in how the GC's are issued based on PD, I will be glad as long as they issue mine in august ( 2007 PD).

I think most of the applications should be pre-adjudicated by august 1st, so most ( not all ) of the GC's may be issued in the first 1 week ( even though when I asked spec the same question he felt GC's might be issued through out the month and it makes sense as there will be approx 10K issued ),

P.S : my opinions are biased based on expectancy bias and not as objective as others who aren't counting days for the GC

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I dont blame you for being hopeful. I'm Dec 2007 Eb2 dependent with pending 485 . My spouse already got 485 approved in the early part of 2012 . I have not traveled back to India in the last 7 years , subject to employment changes with H1B and did not do so despite AP while hoping for GC approval .

[indiani]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I dont blame you for being hopeful. I'm Dec 2007 Eb2 dependent with pending 485 . My spouse already got 485 approved in the early part of 2012 . I have not traveled back to India in the last 7 years , subject to employment changes with H1B and did not do so despite AP while hoping for GC approval .

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

[Eb2_Dec07]

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

I emailed my attorney , but have not heard anything yet. I did hear from some of my acuaintances reaffirming the expected movement in the upcoming bulletin via their sources in their respective orgs . I'm optimistic of the predicted movement , however by the same token , I'm a little cautious of the allotment of visas based on PD VS randomly. Anyways , only few more days till we know .

[vizcard]

Header updated with latest predictions. I am slightly more optimistic than previously. Good luck.

U sold out man Jk

I hope u contribute atleast by reacting to others assumptions or calculations and by occasionally dropping a tidbit based on ur experience and the tool

[qesehmk]

LoL Viz. Certainly not retiring or anything. Only that dont want to spend time doing manual forecasting that a tool can do with reasonable accuracy.

Started this in Jan 2010. Got my own GC mid 2011. And trying to hang my hat in Sep 2013. Meanwhile many more people already know all the techniques I used. There is nothing really secret and I guess this forum has really laid it out very open. All other gurus are also very open in terms of what they think and what they base their assumptions on.

Meanwhile created a tool - which I believe is in a very good shape. User experience improvement is ongoing work. But I think the tool fundamentally is sound.

I guess others will continue to predict and calculate manually. I too will do so until Sep 2013. After that I will focus my time more on moderation and any other advice/ insights / personal experiences I can share. Hope that sounds reasonable to most folks.

U sold out man Jk

I hope u contribute atleast by reacting to others assumptions or calculations and by occasionally dropping a tidbit based on ur experience and the tool