EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[druvraj]

I dont think the dates are going to move beyond Feb'08. The narrative in the Aug bulletin will forecast a 4-6 weeks movement in September which will take the COD to Feb 08 (just as in the News Flash on Murthy and Fragomen)

Personally with a 24th March 08 PD date, I'm disappointed. I was hoping that it would go till end of March but I guess not.

Regards
Nat

natvyas,

Did you get a RFE to your 485 application?

[natvyas]

natvyas,

Did you get a RFE to your 485 application?

Since my application was filed at NSC, I didnt get an RFE.

Regards
Nat

[desitiger]

IJune05,

This has been posted on the Oh Law site fairly recently:



There are contradictory dates in the message - I think they do mean a move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

How reliable is OH law firm?if the date move to jan 2008 what will be the move in Sep bulletin?

[venkat]

I've been out of country for last 4 weeks...missed following this forum during this time...just came back couple of days ago using my AP (Advance Parole)...everything was very smooth at the Port of Entry...

Now some good news...Just spoke to my employer (desi company) and he said couple of people with June 2008 priority dates received the boiler plate RFEs that everyone have been receiving...hence people till June 2008 have a chance...

Mine is also June 2008...Lets hope for the best...

[helooo]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

[desitiger]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

What do you mean will be current?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Do you mean incl EB2-I? Have they explained the basis for this proclamation?

[GCKnowHow]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Happy to hear it. But i couldn't believable it t be true. 10 more days to go.

[helooo]

Do you mean incl EB2-I? Have they explained the basis for this proclamation?

Yes all EB2.I always ask him but he never predict so I feel good.Let's see if any other lawyer says the same.And I asked him is it without CIR he said yes.

[gten20]

Yes all EB2.I always ask him but he never predict so I feel good.Let's see if any other lawyer says the same.And I asked him is it without CIR he said yes.

was it a sarcastic Yes?

I doubt dates will be current for EB2I with so much inventory and CIR still a long way from becoming a law.

[helooo]

was it a sarcastic Yes?

I doubt dates will be current for EB2I with so much inventory and CIR still a long way from becoming a law.

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

[sreddy]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Sorry who is "Ombudsman"? How can that be achieved? If you can help get more details, that would be helpful.

Are they talking about immigration bill, or recapture kind of stuff? If yes, hard to trust that they can do it in just 2 months from now.

[desitiger]

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

Don't take this personally but some folks have a sick way of playing jokes.

[qesehmk]

I think you posted in good faith. Now it could very well be a false alarm. But that wouldn't be your fault.

My gut feel is .. this movement is difficult but not impossible. DOS is perfectly capable of jerky movements. I can 100% confidently say that if they become current that they will certainly retrogress in 3 months or less for EB2I.

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

[SmileBaba]

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

Can you share your lawyer's name or firm's name with us?

[qesehmk]

Public Service Announcement:

Heloo is not comfortable sharing the lawyer's information so s/he forwarded the original email to me. The lawyer indeed says that all categories except EB3I will be current in Sep or even in August (based on a b/f meeting he had with ombudsman).

Ombudsman is USCIS point person to identify and recommend solutions to customer problems. Check this link - http://www.dhs.gov/person/maria-m-odom

I do not know if DOS has an ombudsman. So assuming its USCIS ombudsman he is talking about - I just don't understand how USCIS ombudsman can talk about date movements of visa bulletin which is a Dept of State publication.

So I would put credibility of this particular piece of information at 60-70% at best.

p.s. - Thank you heloo for letting everybody else know about it though.

[geeaarpee]

This is the worst case scenario I could think of...

Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.

My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.

From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...

Here is explanation of the logic:

If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).

A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).

Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.

I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!

Just thought of bumping up my old post...

[axialtilt]

There must be more details in here. It is a recording of the session from AILA conference. I didn't purchase it, but just throwing out there to whoever it may interest. If you do purchase it, please post it to the finest detail here

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail...el=description

[kd2008]

Public Service Announcement:

Heloo is not comfortable sharing the lawyer's information so s/he forwarded the original email to me. The lawyer indeed says that all categories except EB3I will be current in Sep or even in August (based on a b/f meeting he had with ombudsman).

Ombudsman is USCIS point person to identify and recommend solutions to customer problems. Check this link - http://www.dhs.gov/person/maria-m-odom

I do not know if DOS has an ombudsman. So assuming its USCIS ombudsman he is talking about - I just don't understand how USCIS ombudsman can talk about date movements of visa bulletin which is a Dept of State publication.

So I would put credibility of this particular piece of information at 60-70% at best.

p.s. - Thank you heloo for letting everybody else know about it though.

Q, I appreciate your clarification and thank you! I am thinking out loud here - do you think the underlying assumption might be that CIR would pass and hence there would be some movement? Last time, the same deal happened in 2007. The Ombudsman person may just be mouthing off based on history and not on data or knowledge from CO.

IMO July 2007 fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007
July 2007 visa bulletin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.

The bulletin was reinstated with applicants allowed to send docs till August 15, 2007 I think.

July 2007 bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3258.html

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Also see, http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3263.html

[qesehmk]

KD - clearly remember the 2007 events since that is when I myself filed for my 485.

I think the movement to make all dates current then was a result of a tension between DoS and USCIS. USCIS was nowhere near as transparent as it is today. To the extent it was probably not even transparent with DOS. PERM didn't exist and DOL's labor pipeline was unreliable. So USCIS also was not at fault behind all the unpredictability behind demand.

As part of these tensions DoS (it appears) snapped and kind of created artificial demand (in order to generate visibility probably) by making all dates current including EB3I.

Today as all of us know DoS and USCIS are reasonably well coordinated; at least it appears so. USCIS publishes much more data. And PERM is in place with a lot of data disclosure. So there is really no need to suddenly make dates current UNLESS they expect CIR to happen.

If CIR happens - DOS will be left with no option but to make dates current just to bring all countries on the same page. I would think that should include EB3I as well. And then over time they will retrogress dates on a category level.

It is anybody's guess at this moment with CIR will actually pass the house of reps.

Q, I appreciate your clarification and thank you! I am thinking out loud here - do you think the underlying assumption might be that CIR would pass and hence there would be some movement? Last time, the same deal happened in 2007. The Ombudsman person may just be mouthing off based on history and not on data or knowledge from CO.

IMO July 2007 fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007
July 2007 visa bulletin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.

The bulletin was reinstated with applicants allowed to send docs till August 15, 2007 I think.

July 2007 bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3258.html

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Also see, http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3263.html

[Spectator]

The Annual Report 2013 CIS Ombudsman June 27, 2013 has been published.

I have not read through it yet.

[indiani]

considering that jan 1 , 2008 is going to be COD in august bulletin , about 8K EB2I applications will be approvable.
will most of these approvals happen within a week or will it be spread thorugh out the month evenly? ( I haven't followed the approval pattern when there is a significant movement of this magnitude ).

In between exactly as spec predicted the information about COD was available this morning based on the conference thursday evening at AILA.

[Spectator]

considering that jan 1 , 2008 is going to be COD in august bulletin , about 8K EB2I applications will be approvable.
will most of these approvals happen within a week or will it be spread thorugh out the month evenly? ( I haven't followed the approval pattern when there is a significant movement of this magnitude ).

indiani,

8k is only the known demand per the Demand Data.

Additional to that are any porting cases that could not be shown in the DD under EB2 because their PD has never been Current since they interfiled the documentation. That could add another 25-50%.

I don't think USCIS can approve even 8k in a week, so they will be spread out over the month IMO, especially as porting cases may take slightly longer to approve.

[billu77]

My wife's (dependent) case has been stuck in RFE response review since March 2012 (PD Oct 2007) when the dates retrogressed for EB 2 India. Now, the latest we hear is that the dates may move to Jan 1, 2008 in August VB. Are there any actions we need to take since we would only have 2 months (August, Sept) for follow-up when our date would be current. Should we just wait till mid of August and then contact USCIS/Senator etc or start following up from day one i.e. August 1st? thanks for the responses.

Is it best to just wait or better to be pro-active like open SR etc?

[NOV2007]

Spec,

Did you get a chance to analyze the links posted in your below post. Is there any indications on to what date COD could reach in AUG2013VB? If I can get to know exactly what the COD can be in AUG2013 I can plan accordingly(I mean I can have buffer time). Otherwise no other go I need to wait untill Jul10 to make some personal decisions and then I have to act in rush if COD reaches end of 2007. Your help here will be greately appreciated.

The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
The Visa Bulletin: A View from Charlie Oppenheim’s Desk

The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice.

• Interaction Between Family– and Employment-based Preferences
• Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
• Charting the Interaction
• FY 2014 Projections and Beyond

Michael P. Nowlan (DL), AILA Business Immigration Committee Chair, Detroit, MI
Christopher A. Teras, Annandale, VA

http://ailahub.aila.org/i/138487 or http://www.ailadownloads.org/agora/i...13-Program.pdf from http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=29445

I guess we are not going to hear anything until Friday at the earliest.

Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.