Q,
I am not as informed as you but I feel like if the dates move into Feb 2008 then for sure the dates will retro and will take 2015 to get back to this date. EB3I will also have to move if not 2015 is also not sure. GC hopeful with PD in 2008 are very unlucky as they have to wait for EB3 to catch up.
druvraj - perhaps you should run the numbers and see how far they will take you. Also suggest look at the historical approvals for all categories and countries. Because sometimes what we feel is based on emotions or experiences (-ve or +ve). Data helps us keep it objective.
p.s. - Honestly what I or Spec or Teddy or anybody else does is not rocket science. It's just tedious and the government agencies like to be unpredictable and kind of unhelpful. That is what creates the mystery. Otherwise this whole thing is really straightforward. People come in ... they want GC ... somebody issues GC according to some rule. I mean .... how difficult is that!!!
Originally Posted by druvraj
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Can someone please help me understand this. I'm either reading too much into the following statement from the last visa bulletin or I'm not understanding this correctly.
"A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014"
Does this mean that the COD will not fall back to 2006/2007 in the October 2013 bulletin? Here's why I'm asking. My PD is in Nov 2007 but I'm applying for I-485 for the first time. If the COD moves beyond Nov 2007 in the next visa bulletin and I apply on time, I'll get an EAD but most likely not a GC before the end of this fiscal (60 odd day window). But that assumes that the COD will immediately fall back to some time before Nov 2007 in the October visa bulletin. However, if that doesn't happen, doesn't it then extend the time frame in which I can get a GC by another month (thereby making the window 90 odd days) making it more likely that I'll get the GC this year?
Q,
If you see in 2011 when SOFAD season started (June till aug) EB2I cases from 2006 were getting approved and now in 2013 we are still looking at dates that might only clear cases from 2007. 2 years hence no real permanent movement. Not to mention cases that will be added from EB3 that dates back to 2005/6/7 if porters have their way which they will this summer. If you look at the data and if EB3 porters are doubled when the dates move into Feb 2008 and if we see EB3ww category porters also getting added not to mention (because of the stagnation in EB2I category will cause) people rushing to upgrade their application to EB1C there might be only be enough SOFAD in 2014 to approve cases that are porters Only. This year we got lucky with FB spillover. Imagine without it what might be the movement. I am assuming that next year will be like this year without FB spillover and most of the SOFAD will be used by porters.
I have learnt a lot from the exchanges on this forum and if my estimates are over reaching in any way please feel free to delete it.
Q,
what is your hunch about the august COD, do you think they will cover nov 2007.
I have my entire life planned on that piece of card. so don't get mad if this is rather redundant question especially this late in the fiscal year.
Most likely they might retrogress as they cannot give more visas than monthly quota unless they know exact spillover which will happen after 2 quarters.
You might be lucky to ger GC within 2 months. Go to FP as soon as you get notice, don't wait for appointment date, if FB clearance happens then you might get in september.
Q and others believe that it might not retrogess before 2007 ( I personally hope they don't ) but realistically I think they will retrogress
Indiani - I do not know when but by Sep 2013 nov 2007 must clear. All the best to you.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
druvraj - I agree that porting is only going to intensify. That's a valid argument. I also agree that EB3 porting is serious threat to reduce / vanish EB2ROW. However the FB spillover this year is what makes me confident about dates moving into 2008. The dates are artificially held back on a technicality of 7% quota for a country i.e. India. If there were quarterly spillover - the dates wouldn't be held back at all. Unfortunately nobody is holding CO's feet to fire on that issue. Trust me if EB2I were to unite and work on it for themselves - this will significantly reduce their pain.
As per next year - I can't predict anything next year without seeing how this year went. But if we look into history then I wouldn't be as pessimistic as you.
p.s. - Don't worry about arguments. That's what makes a dialogue worthwhile!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Last year they were approving 2008 cases..how do we feel about that? They have "processed" cases all the way till May 2010 i.e. preadjudicated cases
You can't go what they are processing. You have to look at the demand, visa consumption and spillover numbers.
Q,
What quarterly spillover?
Last year was not a free lunch. The consequences of EB2-IC using too many visas is that no spillover is available to EB2-I until the final quarter.
Any spare visas to date this year have been required by EB2-WW to repay those borrowed by EB2-IC last year.
EB2-I can only receive spillover once there is no further demand from EB2-WW. That hasn't been the case, so no extra visas have been available to EB2-I.
CO is only following the interpretation of the law exactly as he did last year.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Who asked CO to over-allocate the visas? You (CO) can easily say USCIS provided me wrong data; but even now USCIS is doing the same, not doing anything extra to provide you correct data - it is the same kind of data you are getting from USCIS even now but now you are cautious right and you've LEARNT that it will take few months for the demand to show up.
HOW MANY SUCH THINGS ARE YOU GOING TO LEARN AFTER COMMITTING MISTAKES?
You are not a college grad to say that I committed a mistake last year and see I learnt from that mistake this year and I'm not committing it any more. SHAME ON YOU, if you even try to say that!
If someone works for the govt, and they screw up something and someone loses, its almost always miscommunication or something.
In fact people lose lives when they are unable to prevent terrorsit activities etc., they never say " someone is incompetent or something" its always a "miscommunication" . but as regular people we do something and someone loses anything, they sure will sue the hell including the attorney fees.
Any moron who followed the cut offdates long enough would have known that moving dates that far in 2010 is insane but CO did it anyway. How the heck did 2007 folks are missed while some 2010 PD applicants got GC.
There is no limit to asylum seekers (many of then are fake) like the boston bombers who freely moved in and out of russia, cubans ( castros aren't persecuting everyone forever ), unnecessary diversity visas ( this country is more diverse than almost all developed countries ) but someone they made a big deal few years ago when there was a bill to recapture lost EB visas which were wasted b'cos of their incompetence.
As much as I love living this country somehow the immigration system is one of the worst of all the developed nations.
sorry for the rant but I just want to get it off my chest
GRP and Indiani ... please keep the language civil. First of all Spec is Spec - not CO. Don't rail on him. Secondly, CO is just one guy in the system and for all you know he might be doing his best. We don't know. Criticism based on facts is good. But don't vent on him.
Spec - I think we have gone over this many times. You look at the historical SOFAD and tell me how many times EB2I has received sofad on a quarterly basis as opposed to at the end of year. So that's what I am talking about. Last year indeed there was sofad given in Q1 and possibly in Q2. But that is the only (i can't even say honorable) exception. Otherwise show me how many times SOFAD has been provided in quarterly manner.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
We may differ, but I think quarterly spillover is a very recent phenomenon based on historical facts.
FY2008 - Movement in August - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2009 - Movement in August - An odd year of progress and retrogression.
FY2010 - Movement in July - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2011 - Movement in May - Spillover applied from Q2, but this was a year with very low EB1 approvals.
FY2012 - Movement from October - Quarterly spillover on steroids - all EB2 visas used in less than 6 months.
I think you miss my point about this year. The quarterly spillover rules have been applied, but EB2-WW needed the spare visas, so none were available to EB2-I under the law governing quarterly spillover.
What will be interesting is to see what happens next year. Given EB2-WW will return to a normal approval pattern, some Fall Across from EB2-WW should be available. If quarterly spillover is applied (and I hope it is), it should flow to EB2-I. That would allow some movement during the year, albeit from a quite retrogressed date.
This year is atypical and is a reaction to what happened last year. I said last year that the effects would carry on through FY2013 and that has indeed been the case.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec -
Thanks for confirming. So yes Qly spillover, although in laws, was never applied before 2008 and has been rarely applied since 2008.
As per 2012 - I wouldn't disagree but that was a case when visas were available (i.e. extra ones) and inventory was low and categories (i.e. EB2IC) were backlogged. So it was like - yes we have exhausted all means of keeping EB2I from advancing ... but now that we run out of options ... here is some spillover.
I am sorry to say this ... but that's how I look at that movement. The 2011 Q3 movement is also similar but a bit measured compared to 2012 Q1/Q2 move.
As per 2013 - I am not sure EB2ROW was so much affected at all in terms of movement. But it is agreeable that whatever way affected has to be compensated in 2013 and there will be some effect. In general talking about 2013 is not fruitful since we do not know how this will turn up eventually. But I think the 16K FB visas is more than compensatory for any of the EB2ROW effects from 2012 fiasco. But still no Qly spillover in 2013.
So - I don't know spec why and what you are trying to defend (as in "What spillover?"). You are quite a data guy yourself. All I pointed out is ... instead of EB2I receiving 10-20K SOFAD at the end of year ... if every quarter they receive 5K, that wouldn't necessitate any of these retro moves and people have much better confidence in how EB2I is going to behave in future.
p.s. - All other discussion about this blog's ownership has been moved to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hip-and-Future . Any thoughts are welcome.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Okey, lets get back to the topic.
Guru's could you pls let me know when FEB2008(Or NOV2007) will become COD, is that in next bulletin? or in SeptVB? I need to plan myself to bring in my spouse when dates are current. I want to bring in if am sure dates are current next month otherwise I can plan to bring in Aug month.
I would guess no one can assure of the date.
Next bulletin will be for effective Aug so you should be good if she is returning in Aug.
TSC || PD: Apr-2008 || RD: 17-Jan-2012 || FP: 27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened
For Eb2-I Dec 4 - 2007 PD , currently on EAD , pending 485 approval . Is it ok to be travelling outside USA on business and if in the next VB the date becomes current and GC is issued , would there be any issues during port of entry using AP. Any issues ?
Entering on AP shouldn't be a problem as that's one of the purpose AP serves.
NSC - EB2I | PD: Sept, 2007 | RD: 03-Nov, 2011 | ND: 08-Nov, 2011 | FP Notice: 10-Dec,2011| FP Done: 30-Dec,2011
EAD/AP(Approval Email): 09-Dec, 2011 | EAD/AP(Physical Card): 15-Dec, 2011
GC(Approval Email): 27-Jan, 2012 | GC(Physical Card): 01-Feb, 2012
Q,
Even if SO can be applied quarterly to EB2 categories, It is not possible to calculate for DHS/USCIS right away and then apply in first 2 quarters. As we have seen it depends on so many variables (not talking about porting) to exactly calculate SO.
eg FB visas only become available in the 5th month of FY 13. It is not wisely to give SO in first 2 quarters and run empty handed in last quarter like CO did in 2012 for EB2-ROW.
erikbond actually it is so so easy you wont believe it.
#1 - At the start of each quarter calculate all quotas at country category etc level.
#2 - At the end of each quarter look how many of those are issued.
#3 - Assume 100% utilization of #2. See if there is still unutilized.
#4 - Issue whatever is left from #3 step to backlogged countries and categories in strict PD order within a category.
It is super easy. DoS just doesn't want to do it for whatever reason.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
It's easy but it's error prone. There's no concept of a quarterly quota, only an annual quota for each country/region. If you start applying quarterly quotas and satisfying demand on such a granular basis then you will eventually run into problems when there is anomalous demand behavior in some quarters for some regions. Last year is a great example, where EB2WW ended up dry in the middle of the year because all EB2's were awarded of to EB2C/I. While I'm thankful it happened and I got greened, it's not necessarily a safe method if you are the person responsible for allocating/distributing visas.
PD : 01/11/2008 RD-ND : 12-19/12/2012 FP : 02/13/2012 EAD/AP : 01/26/2012 GC : 03/22/2012
I am sorry. You are wrong. USCIS is required to use 27% of visas each quarter. That is quarterly quota.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
The fundamental issue to me seems to be this aversion to have CODs for other categories.
Q,
That is not correct either.
There is no requirement to use 27% in each of the first 3 quarters - it is a only maximum that may not be exceeded. The law does not mention minimum use, or that it is required to be met.
It is a moot point for this year anyway. The 27% limit appears to have been reached in each of the first 2 quarters and EB2 received far in excess of 27% of their allocation in each of the first 2 quarters. It doesn't appear it will be reached in the third quarter for EB.
vizcard,
I'm not sure whether by Category you mean EB1 etc or ROW etc.
A COD for EB2-ROW would generally require EB2-I to be made Unavailable if they had already used the 7% allocation.
By law, spare (or otherwise unused visas) are only available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit when there is no further demand from Countries who have not yet reached their 7% limit.
If a COD is imposed on those Countries, then by definition there are insufficient visas available to meet that demand and therefore no spare visas can be available. Potentially, EB2-M and EB2-P could have a COD (although that is unlikely due to the overall 7% interpretation), but unless EB2-ROW remains Current, there can be no spillover to EB2-I.
But similarly, if a COD was imposed on EB1, then that would mean that there were no spare visas to Fall Down. The only potential spare numbers would be Fall Across from EB2-WW.
I hope I understood your post correctly.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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