EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[dontcrib]

This is my first post. Sorry for any errors.. Just have a Question regarding the Porting numbers. some of the members were mentioning that the porting numbers are included in the DD. Can some one clarify How does the Demand Data shows porting numbers after 04-Sep-2004 when the date is not current for EB2I though they might have filed the 485 under Eb3I..

[bvsamrat]

Kanmani- I agree that it appears quite logical. But CO has indicated many times that due to porting the dates could not advance.
What you said might happen only if no visas are issued in first 3 quarters of FY 2013 and hence status quo and dates stood still
(vey low chances - possible only if CO has paid back to EB2-WW what he had taken last year).

But if we assume about 300 Visa issued every month and net demand increase of 300 PM will make porters of about 600 PM- to me this appears logical (there is no net demand increase in 2008/2009 cases which would not include porters)

I concur with Indani and I will throw in my prediction

If we consider SO only assuming that the regular allocation is taken by porters (IMHo - porters are 600 Per month and without SO, dates would go back to match EB3PD).
If all SO released in AuG VB- SO of 8300 will take to 1st JAN08
If all SO released in SEP VB- SO of 8625 will take to 1st JAN08
To Reach 1 JAN 09, would require SO of 24450-24,575 which is very big ASK.
Whatever happens, next year will very very tough as new porters will start applying I-485, but as to get realized into demand may make about 3-4 months time (say Dec-Jan 2013 )
(Regular 07 and early 08 guys- Thank CO for his delay tactics without which this would not happen)
By then dates would go back to 04 or 05 or few months head of EB3 PD. But we and CO would know the trend.
Question - Gurus- What if a porter has a EB2 PD with lower date being current than current EB3 PD date? (For eg.. Eb2 I PD 1SEP 04 and EB3I 1st DEC 04- and a porter with PD 1st dec 04 date ported to EB2I which is not current).
This may happen next year (of course passing of CIR or piecemeal aproach by John Boehner may change the situation)

Here is why I think porters are not included in the Demand Data yet.

"DOS Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS) permits only one visa request per alien registration number (A-number) – i.e., only one visa request can be pending in the system for a particular alien.

Applicants who want to change their green card application from employment-based to family-based must initiate a request with USCIS. When USCIS receives a request to change an employment-based green card application (for which a visa is not available) to a family-based green card application (for which a visa is available), the Service Center contacts DOS to ask that the pending employment-based visa request be deleted from IVAMS."

Source : uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

From the above, considering one pending visa request per A.No , whenever uscis asks visa number for a porting case, they must delete the already pending request from the system . Eb3 cannot have two AOS(I-485) pending at the same time (1 in E2 & 1 in E3 is not allowed anymore, converting the existing to other basis is encouraged) , whenever there is an addtion to EB2 in the demand data, there must be a deletion in the eb3 total, which is not happening in any of the DD consistantly.

According to Murthy law firm,

"The interfiling request should be based on a priority date that is current, although many such requests are initiated prior to that point. Regardless, no action is taken by the USCIS unless the priority date under the new basis case is current. "

[indiani]

If all SO released in AuG VB- SO of 8300 will take to 1st JAN08
If all SO released in SEP VB- SO of 8625 will take to 1st JAN08

Indiai: Agree with your point but I think either in august/ september CO will move to Feb 2008

Whatever happens, next year will very very tough as new porters will start applying I-485, but as to get realized into demand may make about 3-4 months time (say Dec-Jan 2013 )
(Regular 07 and early 08 guys- Thank CO for his delay tactics without which this would not happen)

Indiani: I do not want to thank him for the screw up last year. Apart from suffering Bipolar disease and making erractic movements, there isn't much discipline he followed, if he did, how can Nov 2007 still wait for GC 1.5 years after 2009 got GC.

By then dates would go back to 04 or 05 or few months head of EB3 PD. But we and CO would know the trend.

Indiani: Agree

[indiani]

Question to someone who got GC and have known many who got GC:

Once my PD become current in august (Nov 2007), usually withing how many days/weeks will I get the email confirmation?

Planning to leave within 3 months of GC any problems at naturalisation ?

[indiasunil]

As per MURTHY.COM
DATES will move upto FEB'2008 in best case.

http://www.murthy.com/2013/06/11/new...for-eb2-india/

Sunil

[indiasunil]

Hi,

There is NO such Time line exists anywhere..
It is better to be nearly 6 months( bcoz GC applied for future employment ). But, I never heard or see any issue as far as I know once GC approved.

My brother left company the day he got his GC in hand.. He got Citizen ship also.. So there is no hard rule anywhere.

Sunil

Question to someone who got GC and have known many who got GC:

Once my PD become current in august (Nov 2007), usually withing how many days/weeks will I get the email confirmation?

Planning to leave within 3 months of GC any problems at naturalisation ?

[Kanmani]

bvsamrat,

Our discussion on Porting demand is related to EB3 porters whose Priority Date is NOT Current in the new category i.e., EB2.

CO's comments on heavy porting demand refers to eb3 porters whose Priority dates are Current lying between Jan 2003 to September 2004 .

Hope this resolves the confusion.

[indiani]

Hi,

There is NO such Time line exists anywhere..
It is better to be nearly 6 months( bcoz GC applied for future employment ). But, I never heard or see any issue as far as I know once GC approved.

My brother left company the day he got his GC in hand.. He got Citizen ship also.. So there is no hard rule anywhere.

Sunil

Thanks that is very useful news.

I have been working for current employer for 2 years.

Instead of changing job now and risk RFE which might kill GC chances for another year, I am planning to leave within 3-4 months after GC.

[indiani]

As per MURTHY.COM
DATES will move upto FEB'2008 in best case.

http://www.murthy.com/2013/06/11/new...for-eb2-india/

Sunil

Thanks for the very useful info, I am 100% convinced that CO has in fact predicted that as murthy will only post when they independently confirm the news.

The interesting point is " best case scenario" which perhaps is same as " as far as" .

But folks who were desperately waiting for over an year somehow wanted to believe that the Feb 2008 cutoffdate somehow is " worst case scenario" .

[druvraj]

I am convinced that the dates will move in to Feb 2008. The question is what date. My PD Feb 26. If I miss the date this time around I guess it will take at least 2 years to get back to this date. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Hopefully CO makes it Feb 28. 2008 was a leap year right?

[indiani]

LOl..almost everyone hope atleast their dates are covered,

not to discourage you but if you read murthy's flashing news Feb 2008 is "Best case scenario" .

Just sit tight and wait, my gut feeling is you will be current as CO never gives a date thats is unrealistic as he knows that the worst thing he can do.

[natvyas]

The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

This tells me the CO isnt really sure about the total SO. This is what Spec had in his analysis of the July VB as well.

[sparty0grad]

I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

[JosephM]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

[GCKnowHow]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

you will have atleast 3 weeks to get ready to file the application. If you are curious then get download the form and fill it with all details and get it ready. So you can be ready with all data and just need a medical test.

[vizcard]

I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

In general the guideline is PD+5 yrs (+/- one year). the inventory report gives you # of people ahead of you until the April 2010 (the furthest the dates moved). Beyond this you can estimate by looking at Perm or I140 data and multiplying it by 2 or 2.2 (for every I-140, there are 2.2 485s due to dependents).

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

You should absolutely keep all your docs ready to go - particularly affidavits in case you need them to supplement your documentation (birth certificate, etc). You might only have 1 month to file your 485 and you definitely don't want to lose that window.

Whether or not you pick a different lawyer depends on two things - who is paying for the lawyer and your experience with the current lawyers. Keep that in mind.

[ragx08]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

You will get enough time from when the VB is released to the first day you can file ur application - for medicals, etc. But it would not harm to gather all the documents required upfront. You may want to ask ur lawyer for the checklist of documents needed - and I don't see any reason why he/she would not provide you with one!

-Ragx

[SeekingGC2013]

All Guru's

Assuming that dates end Feb 2008 by Sept 2013 - what do you predict for PD to get to Q3 2008 again? Would it be possible in FY2014 or FY2015 without the CIR? please advice....

Very true! Just make sure you are dealing with a good lawyer. Personally I would not hesitate to pay from my pocket to hire a good one - if the employer provided lawyer is not good enough. Given the current situation, it makes a hell of a difference; An RFE (due to bad filing) could easily put you back by 2-3years!!!

[gtyagi]

Gurus:

Would you provide latest SO estimates and how many total visas will be available for EB2I? Per Murthy and Fragomen, the dates will reach as far as Feb 2008. Does that mean PDs of March, April and May should just loose hope? My PD is April 8th, 2008.

What are the estimates of SO from each category?

Please advise.

[natvyas]

Gurus:

Would you provide latest SO estimates and how many total visas will be available for EB2I? Per Murthy and Fragomen, the dates will reach as far as Feb 2008. Does that mean PDs of March, April and May should just loose hope? My PD is April 8th, 2008.

What are the estimates of SO from each category?

Please advise.

NewsFlash! February 2008 Best Case Estimate for EB2 India

June 11, 2013

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has confirmed February 2008 as their best case estimate for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) cutoff date advancement for India. Movement in the EB2 India category in August and/or September 2013 is predicted in the July 2013 DOS Visa Bulletin, without specification as to the likely amount of such movement. The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

The Feb 2008 date is not set in stone per the last sentence of the News flash. Spec had also mentioned the same in his analysis of the narrative in the July VB, that the CO does not have complete view of the total SO.

I'm waiting for Spec in chime in. He has been rather quiet in the past few days.

[RMS_V13]

To help with Spillovers :I heard that companies with Intracompany Transferees (L1 A) who has never sponsored GC overall, are applying for Green card for eligible employees- mostly EB1. This is mainly because of tight visa regulations, several visa rejections, heavy penalties etc. This also means lesser spill over to EB2 from EB1.

My Perception : These folks would most likely dump the company once GC arrives in 3 months and move on. How does this benefit them? Just wondering

[indiani]

NewsFlash! February 2008 Best Case Estimate for EB2 India

June 11, 2013

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has confirmed February 2008 as their best case estimate for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) cutoff date advancement for India. Movement in the EB2 India category in August and/or September 2013 is predicted in the July 2013 DOS Visa Bulletin, without specification as to the likely amount of such movement. The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

The Feb 2008 date is not set in stone per the last sentence of the News flash. Spec had also mentioned the same in his analysis of the narrative in the July VB, that the CO does not have complete view of the total SO.

I'm waiting for Spec in chime in. He has been rather quiet in the past few days.

when CO mentioned possible estimated COD as Feb 2008 , he knew that there is potential of enough SO to reach that date.

It might be 1-2 months more or less but not a whole lot different.

If you see page one predictions from Q and Spec ( the most trusted in the prediction business ) the dates fall well within their estimates.

No matter anyone tells you anything i think only seeing the actual bulletin gives you 100% confidence. ( Right now I am about 99% certain that it lands roughly in that area ).

[vizcard]

All Guru's

Assuming that dates end Feb 2008 by Sept 2013 - what do you predict for PD to get to Q3 2008 again? Would it be possible in FY2014 or FY2015 without the CIR? please advice....

FY14....too many variables at this time to pin point but i'm 90% sure Sept 2008 will get their GC in 2014.

[qesehmk]

You can look at 485 inventory that USCIS publishes and that will give you a decent idea how many people are ahead of you. That works well for all current countries and categories. For India and China thought the inventory is 60-80% accurate because the latest years are missing because of the backlogged natuer of their categories.

www.whereismygc.com is a paid website forecasts future demand and has an automated forecasting simulator that will give you a decent idea of forecast as well as how many people are ahead of you and how they will be eliminated from the queue.

If just want to know the approx dates and time lines .. just read the header of this thread.

I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

i think you mean 2014. AND I AGREE. AND I would say that it will happen regardless where dates land by Sep 2013.

FY14....too many variables at this time to pin point but i'm 90% sure Sept 2008 will get their GC in 2008.