EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Spectator]

Spec,

I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.

One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.

sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA, those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

[sbhagwat2000]

sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA, those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

Thanks for the Clarification. I am becoming more optimistic now of some movement in July bulletin. The only reason it will not move is CO is unclear about EB2 WW usage. Lets hope and pray for some movement - 8 more days to go

[indiani]

I just saw spec's predictions on page 1, i think even though he has mentioned SO of 0 from EB2WW, I suspect there might be 1-2K , at the sametime EB1 might not give 10K , in the end total SO might not change dramatically.
However on the update in april the range was quite large of 8-17K and if at all it turns out to be dramatically short on the lower end of the spectrum then we are dealing with a nightmare scenario.
Anyway we look at it, it is perhaps becoming the most awaiting bulletin ever.

[geeaarpee]

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

[indiani]

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

Even though having huge FB spillover is good news, the increased EB2WW and EB1 demands are the mitigating factors, so Its not easy to conclude just with previous FB spillovers and movements.

[indiani]

If july bulletin doesnt show movement atleast until summer 2007, I am planning to use AC21 , my question is can i just send AC21 letter from future employer even though I dont have any intent/plan to join them until GC is approved? I want to stay unemployed until GC.

even though this is the predictions thread, I didnt know how to look for AC21 thread (not sure if there is one)

[sbhagwat2000]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

[indiani]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

Thanks for the article, very informative.
This fiscal year at some point CO said that he is thinking about setting up a cut off date for EB5C but he changed his mind as the applications levelled off. even though not all applications are approved the same year, good percentage of them are, as you know its a temporary card for 2 years like the marriage greencard.

Unfortunately we just dont have a concrete number as to how many GC's are given away this fiscal year.

Unlike many who said there could be zero SO form EB5, i think there might be upto 2K.

overall there are so many unknowns at this point, instead of spending tireless amounts of time crunching everything, its better to wait for atleast July bulletin, until then I would rather prepare for bad news and make back up plans.

[geeaarpee]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

[Spectator]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

That's not quite correct. The description in the article is slightly misleading.

Step 1 refers to I-526. Max I-526 applications (which leads to use of EB5 visas after approval at 2.9 per I-526 approval) was in 2012.

Receipts in the first half of FY2013 are the same as the last half of FY2012 and 18.5% higher than the corresponding period in FY2012, but there are hints of a small reduction happening.

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

The figures match those already published.

I agree with the article that EB5 is going through a difficult time and it may lead to a reduction in expected approvals. I have mentioned this previously. Expected approvals would have been a figure in excess of the original 10k allocated, hence the talk of retrogression. It remains to be seen what the impact might be.

[vizcard]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

Porting is high due to the heavy EB2 forward movement we saw last year. They are already reflected in Inventory/ Demand but it is unclear which category they show up in. Most folks think that they remain in the original category (EB3). There is a possibility that there is double counting but I don't know for sure.

[geeaarpee]

Porting is high due to the heavy EB2 forward movement we saw last year. They are already reflected in Inventory/ Demand but it is unclear which category they show up in. Most folks think that they remain in the original category (EB3). There is a possibility that there is double counting but I don't know for sure.

Viz- I agree but that wasn't my question. By Cross-Chargeability, I meant primary being charged against India and spouse in ROW there by both (+ any dependents) using EB2/3ROW visas.

I'm sorry, my question was not very clear earlier.

[indiani]

That's not quite correct. The description in the article is slightly misleading.

Step 1 refers to I-526. Max I-526 applications (which leads to use of EB5 visas after approval at 2.9 per I-526 approval) was in 2012.

Receipts in the first half of FY2013 are the same as the last half of FY2012 and 18.5% higher than the corresponding period in FY2012, but there are hints of a small reduction happening.

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

The figures match those already published.

I agree with the article that EB5 is going through a difficult time and it may lead to a reduction in expected approvals. I have mentioned this previously. Expected approvals would have been a figure in excess of the original 10k allocated, hence the talk of retrogression. It remains to be seen what the impact might be.

Spec,
your analysis is perhaps the most reliable and logical one ,
here is my question about EB5 SO, don't you think EB2I might receive atleast 1-2 K SO as their quota has increased with FB spillover and also the demand has not increased in the latter part of the year.
In other words 11218- 9000 = 2218.
why I chose 9K is; if it were to be much higher we would have seen EB5C cutoff date before FB spillover added

[geeaarpee]

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

Spec - if the people's conditional permanent residency is not made permanent, those issued visas go wasted or will (or can) it be recaptured in the current (or future) fiscal?

[indiani]

Once someone applies for porting with approved 140 and existing 485 from Eb3I, how long will it take to adjudicate their application?
How many new porters might be there who might apply with PD until the end of 2007

[Spectator]

Spec - if the people's conditional permanent residency is not made permanent, those issued visas go wasted or will (or can) it be recaptured in the current (or future) fiscal?

As with all Conditional Residency, if conditions are not removed, the visas are not recaptured.

[druvraj]

My feeling is that if in the July bulletin dates moves into 2007 then dates will end up in Q1 of 2008. If on the other hand dates move into 2006 only then we need to forget about dates moving into 2008. I believe that CO will not move the dates in sept bulletin. He will make it U or retrogress in sept.

Does anybody think because of CIR and its restrictive policies on companies like Infosys and Wipro can there be a increases EB1C demand?

[Spectator]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

I consider porting and cross-chargeability as two distinct and separate categories. Very few people use both porting and cross-chargeability at the same time.

An analysis of EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals from FY2011 through to present suggests that about 10% (8.4-12.0%) of approvals are due to applicants with Indian Nationality (mainly charged to the Gulf States).

The % for porting in EB2-ROW appears to be similar (7.5-11.9%).

There is not enough data to analyze Mexico and Philippines, although I suspect cross-chargeability from India is very low.

As ever, there is no official data on the subject (that I have found).

[Spectator]

Spec,
your analysis is perhaps the most reliable and logical one ,
here is my question about EB5 SO, don't you think EB2I might receive at least 1-2 K SO as their quota has increased with FB spillover and also the demand has not increased in the latter part of the year.
In other words 11218- 9000 = 2218.
why I chose 9K is; if it were to be much higher we would have seen EB5C cutoff date before FB spillover added

Yes I believe EB5 will provide spillover.

Before the FB visas (and the problems with EB5 became apparent), CO was talking about having to retrogress EB5-C towards the end of the year. Since EB5 had 9,940 visas at that time, clearly he thought numbers were going to exceed that number when he made the comments in the VB. A lot has changed since then.

Unfortunately, all bar one fairly early number for EB5 visas used, a very tight lid has been kept on EB5 visa usage this year. It's a big contrast to previous years.

[geeaarpee]

I consider porting and cross-chargeability as two distinct and separate categories. Very few people use both porting and cross-chargeability at the same time.

An analysis of EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals from FY2011 through to present suggests that about 10% (8.4-12.0%) of approvals are due to applicants with Indian Nationality (mainly charged to the Gulf States).

The % for porting in EB2-ROW appears to be similar (7.5-11.9%).

There is not enough data to analyze Mexico and Philippines, although I suspect cross-chargeability from India is very low.

As ever, there is no official data on the subject (that I have found).

Thanks Spec - the reason I asked, I personally know a few cases that are using this route with Nepal Chargeability, but not sure how their I-140s will be approved as their EB3 Priority dates are in the 2010s and how they got qualified for EB2 (the experience route, not the masters route) in these 3 years is doubtful, probably they are trying to recapture their old experience, not sure.

[indiani]

My feeling is that if in the July bulletin dates moves into 2007 then dates will end up in Q1 of 2008. If on the other hand dates move into 2006 only then we need to forget about dates moving into 2008. I believe that CO will not move the dates in sept bulletin. He will make it U or retrogress in sept.

Does anybody think because of CIR and its restrictive policies on companies like Infosys and Wipro can there be a increases EB1C demand?

In general I have the same feeling that for the dates to go into 2008, jan 2007 should be the minumum movement in july bulletin but once again things are so unpredictable with uscis that there could be little movement in july bulletin with major movement in august bulletin.
I just wouldnt even think about CIR until there is a house bill that is passed and which is close to senate bill.
almost everyone agrees that senate bill will pass by july.
There is not even a bill in the house yet , so I dont think CIR will become law by this yr ending and once it goes into next year, odds of passing are slim.
Tea party is emboldened with all the scandals and Tea Party 2.0 will start next yr and they will come back with vengence as they feel that they have been oprressed in last election cycle.
I have been following politics in this country for 13 yrs and my prediction is CIR has about 10% chances of passing that too like obamacare with very slim margin and barely making it to finish line that too early spring next yr

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

Spec,

some thoughts about the EB1 numbers -

1. Last year as you have repeatedly mentioned EB1 I came in at 24% of all approvals. Why do you think that is - is it cause Kazarian has made approvals for other countries lengthy v/s India as India applies mostly in certain EB1 categories that are not impacted by kazarian?

2. In Jan CO mentioned that EB 1 I had crossed 2800. I know we should not prorate and I can see in your data that after Jan Eb1 I approvals have reduced. But lets say if we prorate and so annually EB1I would be - 2800 * 3 = 8400. Now if EB1 I approvals revert to the historical percentage of total approvals that would be trouble for EB1 right? Have you taken that into consideration in your calculations?

[indiani]

July bulletin cut off date for EB2I prediction is like predicting land fall of a hurricane, there is a wide range of possible areas where they can land.
having said that I would like to throw in my prediction at jan to august 2007 , i encourage everyone to do so, we all know the SO numbers to the best that can be extrapolated

[JosephM]

My prediction(wish) is that the cutoff will move to August 2008

[druvraj]

In general I have the same feeling that for the dates to go into 2008, jan 2007 should be the minumum movement in july bulletin but once again things are so unpredictable with uscis that there could be little movement in july bulletin with major movement in august bulletin.
I just wouldnt even think about CIR until there is a house bill that is passed and which is close to senate bill.
almost everyone agrees that senate bill will pass by july.
There is not even a bill in the house yet , so I dont think CIR will become law by this yr ending and once it goes into next year, odds of passing are slim.
Tea party is emboldened with all the scandals and Tea Party 2.0 will start next yr and they will come back with vengence as they feel that they have been oprressed in last election cycle.
I have been following politics in this country for 13 yrs and my prediction is CIR has about 10% chances of passing that too like obamacare with very slim margin and barely making it to finish line that too early spring next yr

I agree with you that there is slim chance of CIR passing. What it does is that big companies like Wipro, TCS and Infosys do not want to take risks and they are the ones who have abused EB1-C category(Not EB1-China). Mind you I am not against these companies for if I was the executive I would have done the same. As a result we have high EB1 usage and the FA as a result is small if not none. In fact when I first heard the FB visas are going to used in EB category I was under the impression that all the 18K or so would be used by EB2/3 - I. None by EB1/4/5. EB2WW also panicked last year as result of HR3012.

What also bothers me is the unpredictability of this bulletin. In this day and age numbers should be made available and if at all there has to be a movement it has to be about the transparency. Let us hope for the best!!!