EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[geeaarpee]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

I'm not a Guru and you can see in the previous posts I have been asking some basic questions to Spec and others but based on my experience just trying to answer what I feel...

I think by "So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.", you meant you are planning to file yourself as dependent on your wife's EB2 case (just make sure the old Jul'06 PD is retained in her new EB2 I-140). You are assuming that July'06 EB2I will be faster than Aug'03 EB3I - it is understandable but with the current state it could be other way too...

I assume:

1) Since you are on EAD, you have filed for I-485 already and there is very high possibility your EB3 case will be current atleast by fiscal '14. Assuming there are no RFE in your 485 it would be a straight forward approval right away in that case. This would be my first preference.

2) What is not clear from your question is whether your wife has already filed for I-485 or not - if she has already filed then her case will also be smooth and you can file as a dependent when her EB2 date is current, based on other gurus prediction it should be current by Sep'13. But my suggestion would be wait for her 485 to approve and then file a "Following to Join", this way you would avoid any issues with RFEs in your wife's 485 case.

Hope it is helpful.

Also read this, it has some good info too...

http://forums.immigration.com/showth...became-current

[qesehmk]

Matt

That's quite conservative. Yes I think it will be come in at last years level or even higher - considering economy is actually better this year. However trackitt data is pointing to 20% less demand ... that's 32K. So 44-32=12K SOFAD could be seen. To me that is too good to be true in this economy.

Plus EB1 is treachorous because the cycle times are so small. And then there are headwinds in EB3ROW porting .... so I will let these headwinds take away any upside in EB1. Or said other way ..... you can say that yes indeed EB1 can give SOFAD to EB2 but the question is will it really go to EB2I? Or will it be consumed in EB2ROW. So seen from EB2I angle - they may land up with only 1K from EB1 (mind you before I consider 9K extra FB visas).

Hi Q,
Was comparing the multiple predictions we have, and was looking for reasons for each number, Got a little curious about the 1K SO from EB1. Are you expecting the EB1 demand to be very similar to last fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt

[sandyn16]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007

[geeaarpee]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007

Just do what your attorney said which seems to be right - i think they are planning to interfile but there are associated risks too. Filing a derivative 485 also carries risk. Check with your attorney, if "Following to Join" is possible and I think that would be the safest bet.

[Spectator]

Matt

That's quite conservative. Yes I think it will be come in at last years level or even higher - considering economy is actually better this year. However trackitt data is pointing to 20% less demand ... that's 32K. So 44-32=12K SOFAD could be seen. To me that is too good to be true in this economy.

Plus EB1 is treachorous because the cycle times are so small. And then there are headwinds in EB3ROW porting .... so I will let these headwinds take away any upside in EB1. Or said other way ..... you can say that yes indeed EB1 can give SOFAD to EB2 but the question is will it really go to EB2I? Or will it be consumed in EB2ROW. So seen from EB2I angle - they may land up with only 1K from EB1 (mind you before I consider 9K extra FB visas).

Q,

You've hit the nail on the head!

EB1 usage is my greatest uncertainty and concern at present.

As you say, looking at total EB1 Trackitt approvals, it would suggest 32k from usage to date. I too think that is a little on the low side.

As an alternative, since EB1-I represent over 80% of Trackitt approvals to date, I have also been using that as a baseline.

Last year, actual EB1-I approvals (from DOS figures) represented 24% of total EB1 approvals. Mind you, that was a huge increase from the 18% in FY2011 and 16% in FY2010 and FY2009.

Using Trackitt EB1 India as a more representative baseline and the 24% ratio, projected approvals have been in the 36-37k range.

Summing up, I share your concern about EB1 usage, especially as this time last year saw the beginning of a surge in EB1 approvals and the fact that EB1 approvals do seem to come in waves rather than as a steady stream.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007

sandyn16,

Thanks for the additional information.

As I understand it, your EB3 I-485 will be linked to your wife's EB2 case when her 2006 PD becomes Current under EB2 and her I-485 can be converted to an EB2 basis.

Her I-485 will switch from being the Dependent on your EB3 case to the Primary on her EB2 case and your I-485 will switch from the Primary on your EB3 case to the Dependent on her EB2 case.

I don't think that should cause any problems, or create any unnecessary delay.

It is absolutely vital that a written request to change the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 is received by USCIS. Without it, they cannot proceed with the conversion (according to the USCIS AFM) and will raise an RFE for it if they adjudicate the case.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your reply.

Good luck.

[indiani]

The next bulletin will give almost complete idea of the entire fiscal year movement as

we will see movement of some sort (small chance of no movement)
and
CO tends to give his analysis as to the future movements

[MATT2012]

Q,

You've hit the nail on the head!

EB1 usage is my greatest uncertainty and concern at present.

As you say, looking at total EB1 Trackitt approvals, it would suggest 32k from usage to date. I too think that is a little on the low side.

As an alternative, since EB1-I represent over 80% of Trackitt approvals to date, I have also been using that as a baseline.

Last year, actual EB1-I approvals (from DOS figures) represented 24% of total EB1 approvals. Mind you, that was a huge increase from the 18% in FY2011 and 16% in FY2010 and FY2009.

Using Trackitt EB1 India as a more representative baseline and the 24% ratio, projected approvals have been in the 36-37k range.

Summing up, I share your concern about EB1 usage, especially as this time last year saw the beginning of a surge in EB1 approvals and the fact that EB1 approvals do seem to come in waves rather than as a steady stream.

Thanks Q & Spec,

Many of us share similar concerns about EB1 this year.As we dont have clues from demand data, I turned into Inventory data for any possible clues.

FY 2012 started with 14K and peaked at 16K and ended with 14K. The acceleration of approvals we observed towards end of the last fiscal caused roughly 2K reduction in inventory. Most of the countries have similar start and end inventory for the last fiscal. India had a slightly lower pending inventory to end the last fiscal.

FY 2013: As per Jan 2013 inventory ,EB1 have a pending 13K number a drop of 1K from begin of the fiscal. That basically means that there were more approvals than new additions during the first quarter. Now if we compare EB1 I, the pending inventory made a drop of 10% during the first quarter. Trackitt had more number of EB1 I approvals during first quarter when compared to first quarter of last fiscal. So the reduction in EB1-I inventory makes sense. The EB1-I approvals of second quarter in trackitt is cumulatively 10% less at the end of the second quarter. it is generally comparable with the 10% EB1-I inventory drop.

Regarding the percentage weightage of India, it is fairly consistent with last year, as per pending inventory 21% which is a 1% drop from last fiscal. EB1-I had an average 22% weightage last fiscal as per inventory, which is very close to 24% official figure from State Dept, may be CP cases weightage adds another 2%( just an assumption).

My thought is, as we had inventory reduction in the first quarter, we may not see the spikes in last quarter approval. My gut from inventory numbers is there will be an overall 5-7% reduction in approvals this fiscal when compared to last fiscal, that is very close to the 36-37K Spec is projecting.
Though I compared inventory numbers to make the assumption of overall approval reduction, the actual key is how many visas were issued in the first quarter.As EB1 consumption holds the key for all SO's this fiscal, any upside swing in consumption can adversely impact our calculations. At this point there is no bigger concern than EB1. I am hoping that the upcoming inventory report will also show some more reductions in overall EB1 numbers. On the otherhand if the inventory increases, EB1 consumption may be heading to last year equivalent or more.

[Spectator]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.

One note of caution with relying on trackitt. CO said in Feb that India and China have used their qouta for EB1 for the year. How does that compare with last year does anyone know? If EB 1 IC have used their qouta then approvals would be higher right?

[Spectator]

One note of caution with relying on trackitt. CO said in Feb that India and China have used their qouta for EB1 for the year. How does that compare with last year does anyone know? If EB 1 IC have used their qouta then approvals would be higher right?

The Trackitt numbers also suggest that EB1-I exceeded their allocation towards the end of January and was a fairly good agreement with CO's announcement.

Last year, when the allocation was a bit lower, that appeared to happen at the very end of December according to Trackitt data.

[geeaarpee]

Spec, One quick question - May I know in which category you got your GC - EB1, 2 or 3?

[CleanSock]

June VB out!

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5953.html

No change in EB2I.

[natvyas]

Last year the I-485 pending inventory came out around 1st week of June and they year prior it was released around 26th May.

I'm assuming the pending inventory will shed more light on EB1 and Eb2 WW consumption.

Regards
Nat

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec, One quick question - May I know in which category you got your GC - EB1, 2 or 3?

GRP, IMHO, personal questions are best asked via PMs.

June VB out!

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5953.html

No change in EB2I.

A regular Flash Gordon, aren't you. GRP announced it here.

[CleanSock]

Nope, this is my first time announcing it I just happened to have checked as soon as they released and noticed no post on it in the blog, so went ahead and posted

GRP, IMHO, personal questions are best asked via PMs.



A regular Flash Gordon, aren't you.

[indiani]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.

Spec,

Potential spillover to EB2I will be equal to or less than 13K based on your analysis ; assuming EB2WW might consume all their quota (including the almost 5K FB which is already assigned to them)

If there is heavy porting in the coming months, then the dates might hardly cross 2007, is this fair conclusion or am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Potential spillover to EB2I will be equal to or less than 13K based on your analysis ; assuming EB2WW might consume all their quota (including the almost 5K FB which is already assigned to them)

If there is heavy porting in the coming months, then the dates might hardly cross 2007, is this fair conclusion or am I missing something?

indiani,

As you have outlined it and with the assumptions you have made, that is not impossible. For Cut Off Dates to actually end in 2007, EB2-WW would probably also need to consume some of that 12.2k Fall Down and Porting approvals would have to be higher than most people seem to be projecting.

Please bear in mind there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how EB1 is going to perform. I included the figure to show what it could mean.

[ksur23]

Great update qesehmk!

What about FY2014? Do you think the chances are there would be another retrogression? How long before 2009s become current? (I have a Jan 2009 PD and hence the curiosity). Thanks once again!

General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.


2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated May 12th.

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between May-Jul 2008 by Sep 2013.

Reasoning

Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases.
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume 3K more than its quota.
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 1K to EB1.

Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +1K (EB1) +6K (Quota) = 19K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog through May-Jul 2008 if you consider porting at 3K.

Unfortunately that seems a very plausible scenario. The upside to this forecast couldn't be more than 2 months and downside could be 2 months. So The range for EB2IC backlog to be cleared should be looked at between Mar-Sep 2008. Thus any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I would put those chances at next to zero.

Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com especially if you want to play out scenarios, build your own forecast and/or your dates are farther than Jul 2008. Good luck.

[MATT2012]

Please bear in mind there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how EB1 is going to perform. I included the figure to show what it could mean.

Just to add to Spec's point on uncertanity, Trackitt figures show 20% drop in approvals for EB1. As Spec/Q pointed out it too good to be true. But for the sake of discussion I could make an argument favoring a similar level of drop. There is a 17% drop in pending inventory when we compare Jan 2012 EB1 inventory to Jan 2013. if those drops continue in the next inventory, the numbers could change a little more favourable toward EB2I. On the other hand, it could also mean that too many EB1 cases are getting approved.
Currently the range of EB1 consumption varies from 32K to 40K, depending upon how we look at the data. 36K being the mid point. At this point I am hoping that the upcoming inventory will give us some more clarity.

[qesehmk]

ksur - forecasting generally is more accurate for near term vs long term. Overall I can say that historically 5 years from PD is rule of thumb. But as per next years' movements one can say about it with any confidence only after Oct 2013 when then 485 inventory will be published and in Dec when annual report for 2013 will show the consumption. Those two things will conclusively tell us then trends within EB1 and EB2ROW (and now EB3ROW which has become an added uncertainty).

Don't mean to advertise whereismygc tool. But since you asked - that tool is built to simulate the visa allocation process that DoS uses. So one can adjust the parameters to the tool to figure out the answer to his/her own situation.

Great update qesehmk!

What about FY2014? Do you think the chances are there would be another retrogression? How long before 2009s become current? (I have a Jan 2009 PD and hence the curiosity). Thanks once again!

[yank]

Q,

Why EB3 ROW movement is a worry factor for EB2 I. How EB3 ROW movement will encourage porting from EB3 -> EB2 for ROW? As per VB the purpose is to generate demand for EB3 ROW. Do we have any rough no for EB2 ROW usage for this fiscal yr?

Please reply.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

The question about EB3ROW that I have is - how much is due to EB3 porting to EB2 in ROW. If there is too much porting in EB3 then that means reduced EB2ROW SOFAD to EB2IC. Makes sense?

Please check Spec's and mine discussion on this a couple of pages back. Hope that helps.

Q,

Why EB3 ROW movement is a worry factor for EB2 I. How EB3 ROW movement will encourage porting from EB3 -> EB2 for ROW? As per VB the purpose is to generate demand for EB3 ROW. Do we have any rough no for EB2 ROW usage for this fiscal yr?

Please reply.

Thanks

[Vkkpnm]

Spec/Viz,
Would you like to update your prediction on the first page based on recent DD or you are good with your old prediction.

Thanks

[vizcard]

Spec/Viz,
Would you like to update your prediction on the first page based on recent DD or you are good with your old prediction.

Thanks

I'm not first page material but I do believe that we will end up around June 2008 and at the very outside July 2008.