EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[geeaarpee]

June Bulletin out - no change for Eb2I

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5953.html

[Spectator]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.

D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly for a second month in a row. This recent movement of the dates is not indicative of what can be expected in the future. Rapid forward movement of cut-off dates is often followed by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers within three to six months. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movement will begin to slow, or even stop for a period of time.

No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.

2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.

EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06

[suninphx]

So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!

[pdmay2008]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.



No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.

2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.

EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06

China EB3 is ahead of China EB2. I think EB2 China should downgrade it to EB3 to get GC faster with porting.

[gc_soon]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.

[Spectator]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.

gc_soon,

I am disappointed too.

At the same time, if I am honest with myself, I don't think he has sufficient information yet to make any prediction.

[drugoi]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.

Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days.

[natvyas]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.

This tells me that one of the following two is possible:

1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.

2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

This tells me that one of the following two is possible:

1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.

2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.

Regards
Nat

Let's be pragmatic about this.

a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.

b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.

c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.

d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.

For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.

[infoseek]

Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.

[qesehmk]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.

[Spectator]

Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.

infoseek,

I think that is just a quirk due to the need to build up an inventory for EB3-C, since applications to July 2007 have now virtually run out.

If you compare it to the 01MAY10 that EB2-C reached last year, it is still nowhere close.

Once the dates retrogress back, EB2-C will be ahead of EB3-C.

[gc_soon]

First time, when EB2-I has not moved for 3 quarters in a row.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

[gc_soon]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.

Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.

[Spectator]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.

Q.

I agree it is rather bland.

The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.

ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.

IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.

[Spectator]

Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days.

drugoi,

I'll eat my metaphorical hat if you are not Current in the July VB!

[sbhagwat2000]

drugoi,

I'll eat my metaphorical hat if you are not Current in the July VB!

No movement in EB2I was expected. whats dissappointing is there are no predictions.

Spec - How do you see the movement in coming months? Its time for a prediction from you buddy . Please provide some insights

[qesehmk]

gc_soon & spec - if only looks at 485 inventory then what you say makes sense. But EB3 has huge NVC demand as well - almost 100K.

Now - to be fair - not all of that is ROW. 21 is India, 5 is china, 37(!!) is philines and 18 is ROW. So you can see why philines is not moving with rest of the world EB3. But even 18K of ROW NVC coupled with ROW 37 or so 485 demand = 55K.

Now a movement into mid 2007 was mathematically possible which is what whereismygc software predicted. But movement beyond 2007 requires between 10-20K ROW porting or rejections.

I don't see those many rejections. So it tends to make me believe that ROW probably has much higher porting than 3K.

Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.

Q.

I agree it is rather bland.

The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.

ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.

IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.

[flexan]

Hello Guys,

This is my first post to this forum. This forum was introduced to me by my cousin and ever since then I've been following this forum but never had a chance to contribute. The information being shared on this forum is incredible I must say, especially from gurus like Spec/Q/Matt/Veni etc. Thanks a ton for bringing so much information to this community. I have two quick question guys although it might sound dumb.

1. Is the demand data listed in the monthly VB are applications waiting for visa no to be available? or is it the total no of applications with I-140 approved and waiting to file 485?

2. I've been keeping track of the EB-2I demand data since March 2013. The Demand then was 42,400 until 01/12 and now it is at 42,925. How can this increase when EB2-I dates are stagnated at 01 Sep 04?

[natvyas]

Let's be pragmatic about this.

a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.

b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.

c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.

d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.

For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.

Spectator - This tells me by the time the VB for July would be due, the CO might or might not be in a position to make a decision on total movement for the year since 10 days would be too short a time for him to take stalk of the numbers. So I suspect that his commentary in the July bulletin would be one with lot of words and little insight. Correspondinly the movement in July would be guarded.

The underlying assumption is that there are sufficient to make these movements.

Regards
Nat

[geeaarpee]

Viz, Matt - wats up? No comments on the new VB or Q4 yet!

[MATT2012]

Viz, Matt - wats up? No comments on the new VB or Q4 yet!

Was a little disappointed, but I have not lost my optimism.

Disappointment was not because dates did not move for EB2-I, it was purely due to lack of clarity/guidance. Yes there are a plenty reasons for not giving guidance. But it would have been helpful. As Spec pointed out, CO needs to consider a lot aspects in providing any guidance officially in visa bulletin.

Regarding EB3-ROW, It is on demand building mode, so logic is no more in play. Again the same applies to EB3- China. Now with respect to EB3-I, it could very well be more visas in play. Not sure at this point.

Regarding EB2-I, there is still new demand showing up before the existing cut off date, though it has considerably reduced. The good part is the approvals are happening, which means visas are availaible. I still think early 2008 is possible. I have noticed some acceleration in processing times both in EB2-ROW and EB1, which could indirectly affect EB2-I, if it continues.

Regarding EB2-ROW new applications in trackitt, there are drops. But it is not a clear indicator.

Matt

[geeaarpee]

Was a little disappointed, but I have not lost my optimism.

Disappointment was not because dates did not move for EB2-I, it was purely due to lack of clarity/guidance. Yes there are a plenty reasons for not giving guidance. But it would have been helpful. As Spec pointed out, CO needs to consider a lot aspects in providing any guidance officially in visa bulletin.

Regarding EB3-ROW, It is on demand building mode, so logic is no more in play. Again the same applies to EB3- China. Now with respect to EB3-I, it could very well be more visas in play. Not sure at this point.

Regarding EB2-I, there is still new demand showing up before the existing cut off date, though it has considerably reduced. The good part is the approvals are happening, which means visas are availaible. I still think early 2008 is possible. I have noticed some acceleration in processing times both in EB2-ROW and EB1, which could indirectly affect EB2-I, if it continues.

Regarding EB2-ROW new applications in trackitt, there are drops. But it is not a clear indicator.

Matt

Thanks Matt!

Few Questions:

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

[MATT2012]

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.

2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?

I still believe September will be used as a buffer month to avoid visa wastage etc., So the major movement should be in July or August. it could also be July and August.
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

You are correct, there are approvals happening in two to three months. As far as EB2I is concerned, it may not work. As EB3 ROW has gone ahead, the resources of USICS/background checks will be stretched starting this month. There is a very rare chance for a new EB2I 485 to get approved this fiscal be it filed in July or August.

[gc_soon]

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.

Matt, do you see evidence of high level of EB2-WW approvals in Trackitt or elsewhere? From the earlier discussions in the thread, my understanding was that EB2-WW approvals have actually slowed. Any estimate on EB2-WW consumption so far and for the FY?