The Demand Data has been revised with updated figures.
EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000
The Demand Data has been revised with updated figures.
EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Is there any way we can say most of the 485 applications filed in Feb and March of 2012 has been pre-adjudicated from the DD?
Originally Posted by Spectator
With 2000 for EB3-ROW is bellow montly allocation, so I hope it will follow EB2-I pattern and move 6 months per VB for a couple of VBs.
A friend of mine has the same situation.
PD March 2005. Got an RFE for 485 in Feb 2013. He responded. Now waiting for dates to move.
geterdone,
I'm sure we can say most of those cases have been pre-adjudicated now. The numbers aren't changing very much now.
I don't think we can ever say all of them have been pre-adjudicated and pre-adjudication doesn't mean a RFE can't be raised in the future.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
If the porters interfiling with PD after 2005 are not counted in DD-- Then Eb2-I had it.
I can not say glass is half full or half empty. There would be no glass at all, unless something happens
With the trend, EB2-I progression would be to have 2 years gap with EB3-I (2 years gap is the driving force and time taken for PERM and new I-140).
Only a few outsiders might sneak in in last quarter every year
Thanks Spec for updating, Happy to see the spread sheet error is rectified. Hopefully the NEWS cheered up our EB3 ROW folks
.
Matt,
They sound less freaked out on Trackitt.
The way I see it, May is the last month that CO can move the dates forward and reasonably expect new AOS cases to be adjudicated before year end.
At the end of March, EB3-ROW appear to have used about 13k and that will rise to 15-16k by the end of April. The movements to date might eventually result in a further 2k Demand.
EB3-ROW can reasonably expect at least 26k this year.
That leaves 8-9k Demand to generate for visas available in FY2013.
2k visas has represented about 6 weeks movement in the COD to date, but that may drop to only 4 weeks if the density is high around July 2007 and beyond.
9k Demand would need 6-9 months forward movement to cover the gap, if the assumption was that all cases generated would be approved, so that is the bare minimum required.
If this doesn't happen, CO still has the possibility of moving the dates a long way forward later and using the faster CP cases to fulfill demand, but they would only represent 20% (being very generous).
The joker in the pack is assuming that DOS/USCIS are reporting all the numbers.
If visas are wasted, EB3-P are sitting there ready to use any until they hit their overall 7% limit, after which EB3-I could use them.
I hope that doesn't happen, because it is an entirely avoidable scenario.
Whether CO does that or not is an entirely different question - he has not previously shown any particular love for EB3-ROW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Yeah, EB3-ROW seems less bothered, or they are anxiously waiting for VB to be out.
I do think that USICS possibly may have some pending inventory, yet to adjudicate. So not in demand.
Considering the general processing timelines for new I-485, 3-4 months. May is the best bet that controller have, June being the latest. As this oppurtunity is only presented to him once in few years the movement may not have logic. He may want to build his demand for the next couple of years. He will have four bulletins to play his strategy starting May.
Yes, to avoid visa wastage, he should move atleast 9 months, May visa bulletin may give us first hints about his thought process.
Did he recently port to EB2? If yes, when and do you have more details like EB3 to EB2 same company, future employment, RFE Reason, etc?
BTW, one more... in this case his porting was done almost a year ago...
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
Ported last year to EB2. 140 was approved some 6 months ago.
EB3 to EB2 - Same company.
The June VB will be interesting since its the end of 3rd quarter and I expect to read CO's commentary in it.
Not sure if anybody has shared this yet .... but tomorrow there is an immigration rally in Washington DC.
http://region1.uaw.org/local400/inde...9-85ac01f617d8
May Visa Bulletin Out
Link is not updated, but over the phone, Visa Bulletin is updated.
EB2 China 15 May 08
EB2 India 1 Sept 04 NO Change
EB3 India 22 Dec 02
I can confirm that, this is correct information..
I called in to (202) 663-1541 Number.
I am disappointed !!
Eb3row dec 07
Actually, I am not. It seems CO has a strategy mapped out and is going to follow that until CIR is enacted into law. This is better than last year's schizophrenic movement for EB2I&C. He has decided that last quarter is for big movements and he is sticking to it.
EB3 ROW to Dec 07 is a cautious move to gauge demand. A larger movement for EB3 ROW should be expected next month.
A summary for all groups in EB2 & EB3.
EB2
China - 15MAY08
India - 01SEP04
Mexico - C
Philippines - C
WW - C
EB3
China - 01DEC07
India - 22DEC02
Mexico - 01DEC07
Philippines - 15SEP06
WW - 01DEC07
China has now caught up with WW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
At least something is moving! It would be interesting to see what kind of density appears in EB3-C/M/ROW post 07/07.
For EB2I, my default expectation is that it will catch up with EB2C by the end of the FY - so the new EB2I target is now 15MAY2008. Not bad. Went up by a month and half.
For folks disappointed with no movement in EB2I, I offer what I tell myself. As long as EB1/EB2-M/P/ROW is C, EB2I is accumulating supply - its just not showing up in the VB. The longer CO waits to uncover this accumulated supply of visas, the faster it will move when he does so.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
He does not have to move EB2C back if EB2I does not catch up with it by the end of the FY. EB2C movement so far has entirely been through normal quota - and movement of EB2I has nothing to do with it.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
My Point is.. do we have any history that shows EB2-I did not catch up EB2-C during spill over time.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
Based on past two Bulletins EB2C has moved one and half month.If this keeps on going this way EB2C will be Jul01,2008 before the last quarter.I think thats where EB2I can be.Just guess....Gurus know better.
I think that it will be only one or two additional jumps for EB3ROW before CO stop movements and starts to retrogress.
VO should be able to get some visibility in August for people with PD prior to July 07. (4 moths from today). I do think it's almost enough to fill entire FY allocation and not wast any visas.
But CO must to have some visibility beyond September and forward and this is why he moved PD to December 07 now and probably will move it even to summer 08.
If USCIS will work slow and visibility will not be good in August we may see PD hits end of 08.
Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?
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