EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is July 2008 EB2I - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

Please see Spec's and Q's analysis on page 1 of the forum.

Q also has a web tool (subscription needed) that will allow you to use your own assumptions to estimate when you will become current.

[rmuru99]

Visa bulletin April 2013 is out. No movement in dates. :-(

[veni001]

Visa bulletin April 2013 is out. No movement in dates. :-(

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Interesting to see EB3-ROW-M moved to 01JUL07, Let's see what plan CO got for next few bulletins.

[chengisk]

Visa bulletin is up at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5900.html

[june2010]

Gurus, whats the probability (taking into account the expected spillover, potential CIR getting passed and CO building a pipeline) of EB2-I dates crossing over June 2010 this year (even for a month or two)?
1) 0%
2) around 30%
3) around 50%
4) around 80%

[geeaarpee]

Visa bulletin is up at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5900.html

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...

[goforgreen]

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...

Thats a good point. I was thinking on the same lines ... EB2I dates will start moving and end at somewhere near to EB2C date. Last several years EB2I&C moved together during spillover, but now due to EB2I porting EB2C is moving ahead of EB2I. That is a good thing for EB2I as the spillover will be available for EB2I use only.

[pdmay2008]

I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Good way to summarize the visa bulletin! This is how every EB2I should look at it.

I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

[vizcard]

I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

Neither does CO. amazing

[natvyas]

Not that I'm complaining but what happened to EB2 I retrogressing further to 2003? Should we conclude that the demand has either subsized or levelled out such that it is within the available numbers?

[cancer24]

This is good VB in my opinion.

Movement in EB2C, even if smaller, is as good as movement in EB2I date. By end of the fiscal EB2I will catch up EB2C and I don’t think EB2C will retrogresses. EB2I will have more share of SO but to realize it we need to be patient until last Q.

[Spectator]

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...

Thats a good point. I was thinking on the same lines ... EB2I dates will start moving and end at somewhere near to EB2C date. Last several years EB2I&C moved together during spillover, but now due to EB2I porting EB2C is moving ahead of EB2I. That is a good thing for EB2I as the spillover will be available for EB2I use only.

This is good VB in my opinion.

Movement in EB2C, even if smaller, is as good as movement in EB2I date. By end of the fiscal EB2I will catch up EB2C and I don’t think EB2C will retrogresses. EB2I will have more share of SO but to realize it we need to be patient until last Q.

I would inject a note of caution to those that think because EB2-I has ended with the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C in the past, that it will happen this year.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 using only their allocation and using no spillover at all.

To reach the same Cut Off Date might require as many as 27-30k visas for EB2-I . That number currently appears unattainable under any scenario.

[pch053]

Gurus, whats the probability (taking into account the expected spillover, potential CIR getting passed and CO building a pipeline) of EB2-I dates crossing over June 2010 this year (even for a month or two)?
1) 0%
2) around 30%
3) around 50%
4) around 80%

I don't think there is any chance for EB2-I PD's reaching June'10 this year. Last year, the dates moved into 2010 because USCIS wanted to create a buffer of new applications as most of the old applications up to July 2007 were approved.

[vizcard]

I don't think there is any chance for EB2-I PD's reaching June'10 this year. Last year, the dates moved into 2010 because USCIS wanted to create a buffer of new applications as most of the old applications up to July 2007 were approved.

Agreed. Of course we don't know what CIR will end up including.

But IF they increase numbers and take out dependents from the cap, then there is a very good chance it'll move into 2010 and beyond. But assuming CIR only takes out the per-country caps (which I think is closer to reality), it won't reach 2010.

[vizcard]

I would inject a note of caution to those that think because EB2-I has ended with the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C in the past, that it will happen this year.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 using only their allocation and using no spillover at all.

To reach the same Cut Off Date might require as many as 27-30k visas for EB2-I . That number currently appears unattainable under any scenario.

This VB doesn't tell us anything.

The only positive thing I see out of this is that EB3ROW-M-P will have lesser porting (minor change). Hopefully that positively impacts SOFAD.

[Spectator]

This VB doesn't tell us anything.

The only positive thing I see out of this is that EB3ROW-M-P will have lesser porting (minor change). Hopefully that positively impacts SOFAD.

Vizcard,

Porting can still give an EB3 applicant an advantage of up to 6 years (whether it be ROW or India), so I don't see how the current movement is going to have any effect.

I would certainly leave EB3-P out of the equation. Currently, they are moving even slower than EB3-I and are now 10 months behind EB3-ROW-M. You could replace them with EB3-C, since they looks like they will catch EB3-ROW-M in the May or June VB.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec thanks to you for sharing the 18K spillover with the immigrant community your postings have been shared all over, this is by far the best news this year. Now its official in all published data’s.

All EB2-India folks hang in tight do not worry about intermediate visa bulletins till Jul or till whenever they decide to start spillover. Out of these 18K, 12K will be an extra to EB2 – I / C. Porting is at the same old level however what is happening is that EB2 was unavailable for 6 months last year so it created a backlog. Porting does not exceed 4K (This is just my ball park thought, calculations for previous years showed 3K) a year however as we had a 6 month blackout last year we can expect 6K this year. The monthly cap of 250 – 300 is not enough to satiate this hence no movement. Dates will definitely hit mid 2008 for sure even with the ever increasing inventory thanks to the 12k additional SOFAD that we can bank on even if some of the other usages / past year backlogs may be higher.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

Great to hear from you again.

I think we have all missed your contributions.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Great to hear from you again.

I think we have all missed your contributions.

Thanks Spec, yes I will be around and write more often, all these months have been dull with regards movement which was somewhat on expected lines. I have been a silent reader of your postings here.

[geeaarpee]

Administrators - please remove or move this to appropriate threads if you feel it is inappropriate here...

Predictions vs Calculations:

In the current state, with the information we have - which one will be effective - a prediction based on past/present facts or calculations based on the #s published by USCIS.

IMHO - prediction based on experience and past/present facts will be more effective becos the kind of data (demand data, perm/140 data, trackitt data, etc) we are getting now are either erratic (think abt the latest Mar'13 demand data) or too junkie to base our calculations on...

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[TeddyKoochu]

@username I just read your posting, I can tell you firsthand what happened in one of my close friend and colleague for 5 years. He was also with a company which was blacklisted for H1B issues, his I140 took 3 years for approval (This was during blacklist period) and I-485 was approved without any issues. He did not contemplate change of employers because employer would have revoked I140 and he simply did not want to go through the motions again. In your specific case you would probably like to dissociate yourself from the company as much as possible so AC21 may help in that regard or you can hold tight and be greened this year, sheer bad luck that you were not greened last year itself.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Porting can still give an EB3 applicant an advantage of up to 6 years (whether it be ROW or India), so I don't see how the current movement is going to have any effect.

I would certainly leave EB3-P out of the equation. Currently, they are moving even slower than EB3-I and are now 10 months behind EB3-ROW-M. You could replace them with EB3-C, since they looks like they will catch EB3-ROW-M in the May or June VB.

I agree in theory. But PDs 7/2007 and prior are current. PDs 3/2008 onwards would barely qualify because of the 5 yr work experience requirement. Whatever porting will be next to nothing. Wouldn't it be fairly safe to say that EB3 ROW is not contributing to the porting "concern".

[qesehmk]

GRP - it's always a combination of both. One can't just rely on past data - nor one can solely rely on current data which tends to be incomplete most of the time.

Administrators - please remove or move this to appropriate threads if you feel it is inappropriate here...

Predictions vs Calculations:

In the current state, with the information we have - which one will be effective - a prediction based on past/present facts or calculations based on the #s published by USCIS.

IMHO - prediction based on experience and past/present facts will be more effective becos the kind of data (demand data, perm/140 data, trackitt data, etc) we are getting now are either erratic (think abt the latest Mar'13 demand data) or too junkie to base our calculations on...

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[SeekingGC2013]

@Teddy

Whats your logic being Mid of 2008
3k - Allocated
4k - Porting
13K- Jun1st 2008

we would need a total of 20k Visas to EB2I for the dates to reach Jun1st 2008/ - how do you see those numbers coming?

Spec thanks to you for sharing the 18K spillover with the immigrant community your postings have been shared all over, this is by far the best news this year. Now its official in all published data’s.

All EB2-India folks hang in tight do not worry about intermediate visa bulletins till Jul or till whenever they decide to start spillover. Out of these 18K, 12K will be an extra to EB2 – I / C. Porting is at the same old level however what is happening is that EB2 was unavailable for 6 months last year so it created a backlog. Porting does not exceed 4K (This is just my ball park thought, calculations for previous years showed 3K) a year however as we had a 6 month blackout last year we can expect 6K this year. The monthly cap of 250 – 300 is not enough to satiate this hence no movement. Dates will definitely hit mid 2008 for sure even with the ever increasing inventory thanks to the 12k additional SOFAD that we can bank on even if some of the other usages / past year backlogs may be higher.