EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[bvsamrat]

Is it possible that ported applications (EB3-I to EB2-I) are also added to demand as and when adjudicated?
which should be the case always-IMHO
Then this is good news

It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.

[erikbond101]

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase

[GhostWriter]

Monthly demand data also states the same on the first page.

"Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1. This is
taken into consideration when setting monthly/annual targets for number use based on historical/recent patterns."

gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

[geeaarpee]

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase

Please let me know if this sound right?
2006 - Diff(40400-41000) = 600
2005 - 30925-31500 = 575
2004 - 23125-23650 = 525
2003 - 11400-11800 = 400
2002 - 1175-1400 = 225
Total - 2325 EB3I to EB2I porting cases (for one month)
Assuming another 6975 porting cases for the next 3 months (assuming cases filed in the last quarter will not be ready for adjudication this FY), total # of porting cases from now until last quarter (for the time period between Sep 2004 and Jan 2007) itself will be sufficient to cover the SOFAD EB2I is expected this year.
Prediction: EB2I Dates will end Mid-end 2007 by end of FY2013. This doesn't include the EB2ROW,M,P,C usage. Pessimistic would be Early-Mid 2007 IMHO.

[username]

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/in...sa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

[gc_soon]

Demand for EB3-I before Jan 1 2005:
Oct 2012 : 25,925
Apr 2013 : 23,125

Difference : 2800. (# demand reduction for EB3-I due to approvals in EB3 category plus porting)

[gc_soon]

Please let me know if this sound right?
2006 - Diff(40400-41000) = 600
2005 - 30925-31500 = 575
2004 - 23125-23650 = 525
2003 - 11400-11800 = 400
2002 - 1175-1400 = 225
Total - 2325 EB3I to EB2I porting cases (for one month)
Assuming another 6975 porting cases for the next 3 months (assuming cases filed in the last quarter will not be ready for adjudication this FY), total # of porting cases from now until last quarter (for the time period between Sep 2004 and Jan 2007) itself will be sufficient to cover the SOFAD EB2I is expected this year.
Prediction: EB2I Dates will end Mid-end 2007 by end of FY2013. This doesn't include the EB2ROW,M,P,C usage. Pessimistic would be Early-Mid 2007 IMHO.

I'm not sure about your calculation. How could there be porting of 2325 in 1month, when the dates are at Sep 2004. Demand increased in dates beyond Sep 2004 cannot be due to porting, as dates have to be current when one interfiles. Someone can correct me if Im wrong.

[vizcard]

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/in...sa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

If you didn't file an AC21, you could get stuck if you get a RFE for an employment letter.

[gc_soon]

Monthly demand data also states the same on the first page.

"Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1. This is
taken into consideration when setting monthly/annual targets for number use based on historical/recent patterns."

Thanks Spec and Ghostwriter for the clarification.

[geeaarpee]

Exactly - that is my question - why there is a difference, if the dates are not current? Is USCIS already removing those ported cases from EB3 demand?

I'm not sure about your calculation. How could there be porting of 2325 in 1month, when the dates are at Sep 2004. Demand increased in dates beyond Sep 2004 cannot be due to porting, as dates have to be current when one interfiles. Someone can correct me if Im wrong.

[gc_soon]

Exactly - that is my question - why there is a difference, if the dates are not current? Is USCIS already removing those ported cases from EB3 demand?

EB3 total demand on Oct 2012 : 47,550
Demand as per Apr 2013 : 43,925

Net demand reduction for EB3: 47,550 - 43,925 = 3,625
Assuming monthly allocation of 250/month for EB3 in last 6 months : 1,250

So possible porting + cases that left EB3 (either withdrawn, changed chargebility etc) : 2,375

Assuming everything was porting : porting should have been only 2375 in the last 6 months.
Correct me If I'm wrong.

[qesehmk]

Thanks username for sharing this. I think the people who complained are brave and it must have been hell working for this company.

As per your question about AC21 - relax - there is no such requirement to send ANYTHING to USCIS. Some people proactively tell USCIS of the job change ... but I guess you can skip it and wait and see if USCIS rejects your 485 for whatever reason after which you can always appeal.

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/in...sa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

[geeaarpee]

So you are saying, this is a cumulative data for this FY but it is refleced only in the current DD (Apr'13)?

EB3 total demand on Oct 2012 : 47,550
Demand as per Apr 2013 : 43,925

Net demand reduction for EB3: 47,550 - 43,925 = 3,625
Assuming monthly allocation of 250/month for EB3 in last 6 months : 1,250

So possible porting + cases that left EB3 (either withdrawn, changed chargebility etc) : 2,375

Assuming everything was porting : porting should have been only 2375 in the last 6 months.
Correct me If I'm wrong.

[Kanmani]

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

[username]

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

My EB2 I140 is from Dibon. EB3 I140 was from previous company before joining Dibon.

Can I join new company on H1B after using EAD?

[gc2008]

My EB2 I140 is from Dibon. EB3 I140 was from previous company before joining Dibon.

Can I join new company on H1B after using EAD?

I don't want to scare you. But if the company is black listed, then there is a possibility of revoking ones I 140 by USCIS and there by the person wont be eligible for H1B extensions (if 6 years limit is already passed) and also cannot be able to retain priority date and off course I 485 will be denied. Same thing happened for AMSOL employees. Here is the link:

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussio...40-485-denials

So I suggest you to consult a very good attorney ASAP.

[Kanmani]

Yes, you can always switch back to H1b. Even if you file AC21 it is of not use in the case of revocation due to fraud. If you maintain H1b, you can restart the GC from scratch and port your date using EB3 I-140.

I wish they don't revoke the I-140 , just few months left in your GC journey. All the best!

[qesehmk]

Since the basis of EAD is pending 485, if a 485 is rejected and appealed within the timeframe USCIS allows you to appeal (I would imagine a few weeks at least), the pending status of 485 should continue and EAD should be valid. I don't have any documents to sight right now ... but I am reasonably confident about that.

If anybody finds such document that mentions even the timeframe when one can appeal please do share. But I think username shouldn't be concerned too much. He has already gone through a lot EB3 EB2 - two jobs switches etc ... USCIS is not that dumb not to understand that people have a life. So I wouldn't worry too much if I were username.

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

[iamsheshu]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is Oct 2008 on EB2 - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

[gc_soon]

The EB3-WW figures also have an oddity.

The 345 for Prior to 01 January 2004 is at odds with all the other figures.

Yeah, usually from what I've seen numbers are multiples of 25 except for this one.

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is Oct 2008 on EB2 - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

Without CIR- summer 2014 latest.
With CIR - probably Dec 2013

[Spectator]

Yeah, usually from what I've seen numbers are multiples of 25 except for this one.

Its not that.

The figure is higher than the next year, so it is clearly wrong.

EB3-All Other Countries
Prior 2002 -- 0
Prior 2003 -- 50
Prior 2004 -- 345
Prior 2005 -- 75
Prior 2006 -- 150
Prior 2007 -- 150
Prior 2012 -- 3,550

It should probably be either 50 or 75.

[gc_soon]

Spec, Yeah good catch. Forgot they are cumulative numbers.

[username]

Yes, you can always switch back to H1b. Even if you file AC21 it is of not use in the case of revocation due to fraud. If you maintain H1b, you can restart the GC from scratch and port your date using EB3 I-140.

I wish they don't revoke the I-140 , just few months left in your GC journey. All the best!

Thanks Q, Kanmani, gc2008 for your input.

[shreyasai2004]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is July 2008 EB2I - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !