EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[vizcard]

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

Where did the 30% come from? And don't say I made it up.

[gc_soon]

The PERM Data posts have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.

Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

[geeaarpee]

Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

I think those are the audit cases. Until interfiled (which happens at the new EB2 140 stage), USCIS has no way to know whether it is a porting case or not (I shouldn't say no way, atleast USCIS can assume whether those are porting cases or not with the records they have. But they don't and they shouldn't for several reasons - not all second perm is a porting case - it could be due to issues with previous perm/employer and also due to ignorance - some people weren't kept cognizant of the fact that they have an approved/valid I-140, etc by their employers). Even after interfiling, USCIS has no obligation to pre-adjudicate the corresponding I-485 (if filed already), thats why we are seeing people in the forums, talking about calling the L2 and checking whether their cases are pre-adjudicated or not.

Spec and other gurus - Please correct me if I'm wrong...

[natvyas]

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.

Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

[qesehmk]

Natvyas - Based on what we know now - I think Apr 2008 would be pessimistic yes. I guess I am reasonably confident about overall sofad being around 22K. However that's not including porting. The porting is going to be the dark horse here. So if porting is 6-7K ... we are looking at Apr 2008. At less SOFAD and slight upside from either EB1 or EB4 or EB5 we can look at July 2008. Beyond July 2008 this year would be difficult for approval (but the dates can always move beyond what can be approved).

Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

[natvyas]

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

[gc_soon]

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

Couple of points: Doesn't the 4343 number, include all EBs ,meaning Eb1+Eb2+Eb3.
Also CO said porting for ROW is 1200 in Dec 2012; assuming an avg of 1200 per month, the porting number might be close to 12K(ignoring last couple of months in FY) right?

[Spectator]

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).

With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

[justvisiting]

natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).

FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.

[Spectator]

FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

[seattlet]

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

Around 50 seems to be a normal monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

[qesehmk]

seattlet - welcome to forum. The short answer to your question is "Statistics". Most of the people who use trackitt date or any other data - normalize the numbers there with actuals in the past. e.g. in the past trackitt used to have 1:26 ratio of EB2IC folks. In other words 1 out of 26 people used to register on trackitt. So that's who people would do with any other source of data.

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.

[SmileBaba]

Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?

With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

[Spectator]

Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

[SmileBaba]

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

Thanks Spec! I would like to think so too!

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

[justvisiting]

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.

[Spectator]

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.

justvisiting,

I think the underlying number of EB2-WW applications in November was at least 6k.

Your "conservative" average is extremely conservative.

EB2-WW approvals in the last few years have been:

FY2009 - 32,865 - Average 2,739 / month
FY2010 - 27,406 - Average 2,284 / month
FY2011 - 34,550 - Average 2,879 / month
FY2012 - 25,009 - Average 2,779 / month over 9 months

FY2010 appears to be the odd year out, otherwise the average is nearer 33k.

I don't believe the "extra" is as low as 6k.

On Trackitt, EB2-P already has as many approvals as last year, EB2-ROW has reached 90% and will reach the FY2012 level by the end of March. That is consistent with catching up the missing 3 months by the end of March. If approvals then return to a normal level for the second half of the year there will be 15 months of approvals in 12 months. The overall monthly average (for 15 months worth) only needs to be 2,600 to use the EB2-WW full allocation of ~39,000. 14,000 over 6 months is only 2,333 per month.

[erikbond101]

If 17 K is total number to EB2I. Then 2.5-3 K will be consumed (in FY13) by porters between Nov 02 and Sep 04 as CO commented in last visa bulletin.

Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?

[Vkkpnm]

It's such a frustrating to wait for a thing whose timelines are not known . If I don't get at least EAD this year, I will leave this country.

Sorry guys trying to take out my frustration via this form.

[gkjppp]

whats your PD? chances are 0 to move forward if your PD is beyond May 1st,2010. So "packup". Just kidding. its a rollercoaster so you never know whats in CO's mind. he moves dates on his own discrete(He don't see backlogs).

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year

[vizcard]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year

You will get your GC this year... so don't need to book your tickets just yet. I will be one of those cases that will be on the fence with an Aug PD.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks vizcard.

[Vkkpnm]

Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?