EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiasunil]

From Trackitt:

It is almost clear 13K of the FB spillover will come to EB2. The question is will EB2 ROW need some from FB to remain current. Not sure so far.
For the sake of discussion let us assume, EB2 WW requires additional 5000 visas. That will leave 8000 visas for EB2I. There will be additional spill over from EB1 for sure, let us say 3000 visas. So the minimum spillover is 11000.
11K + 2.8 K normal quota. it is roughly 14K.

The wild card is EB3 I to EB2 I portings.There are 7300 , EB2 I applications until end of 2007. Let us say another 5000 portings between now and end of fiscal. So the total demand is 7300 + 5000 = 12300 to cover the until 2007. That leaves atleast 3000 visas into 2008. Roughly February of 2008. This is the most pessimistic approach according to me.

Pessimistic Approach: February 2008.
Realistic Approach : June 2008. ( EB2 WW needs only 1K spill over from FB, and EB1 yeilds roughly 4k, EB4 and EB5 yields 2K)
Optimistic Approach : September 2008. ( For the controller to make sure visas are not wasted)

Either way it is for sure, it will reach close to mid of 2008.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.

erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing. Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.

This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

[dec2007]

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

[imdeng]

My impression is that USCIS runs entirely on the fees that it collects. There is no additional funding from the federal govt - so sequestration should have no effect on USCIS' working.

PS> Hello everyone. Its been some time since I posted anything.

With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.

[imdeng]

pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

[erikbond101]

erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

Sure Thanks. I have included Oct-Jan 2013 in regular quota for 9 months till July. (263*9 = 2372). So left out for this year is around 1K from regular quota. (15K spillover + 1K = 16 K)

Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???

From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing.

I did consider it see above.

Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.

Now this is a worrying aspect. If 250 numbers are getting consumed only in 2003 and 2004, (250*9 = 2250 till July considered above) then what will happen if we consider rest of 2004 and 2005 2006 2007, 2008. (assume 400*9 = 3600 extra numbers needed to adjudicated in July 2013). So here I was wrong it should be 3600 instead of 1250 in July 2013.

This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

Well criticism improves critical thinking.

[dec2007]

pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.

Thank you, that would be nice..

[erikbond101]

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 15986 (needs 15 K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 18838 (needs 17.8K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 22473 (needs 21.5 K spillover)

[Spectator]

Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???

erikbond101,

It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.

Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.

Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.

The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.

---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100

Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350

That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.

To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.

[redsox2009]

Latest National Processing Volumes and Trends


I-140 Volume in Dec 12 is 7185 and I-485 volume is 14846. Both are less than previous month number, ignoring Oct 12 for I-485.(As OCT 12, VB dates are not current for ROW EB2)

Total Total
Mon/ I-485 I-140
Jan11 13422 6056
Feb11 14352 6859
Mar11 22258 8739
Apr11 20008 7464
May11 19010 6665
Jun11 19724 6597
Jul11 19271 6081
Aug11 18845 6989
Sep11 16060 5786
Oct11 17562 6244
Nov11 20977 5885
Dec11 23708 5850
Jan12 27506 4896
Feb12 30551 4762
Mar12 26717 4836
Apr12 18341 4670
May12 15802 5635
Jun12 17170 7297
Jul12 15560 8093
Aug12 12657 7886
Sep12 10826 6910
Oct12 14127 8978
Nov12 16770 7343
Dec12 14846 7185

[Spectator]

redsox2009,

Isn't it November 2012 you need to ignore?

The Cut Off Date for EB2-WW moved to 01JAN12 in October, but only became Current in November. Wouldn't that be the odd month? - higher than normal Receipts would be expected, since any 2012 PD would have been waiting since July 2012 to file.

The I-140 Receipts are at the highest level since mid 2011.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)

[Spectator]

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)

Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

[SeekingGC2013]

@GURUS

When would be an approximate time to get an idea on the Porting movement, What the Q3 would look like with Priority Dates for FY2013.

thanks

Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

[geeaarpee]

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

[vizcard]

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

[veni001]

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

Agree with vizcard's comment.

[geeaarpee]

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?

[gcq]

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

[qesehmk]

There sure is what seems to be misuse of EB1. Unfortunately the misuse is within USCIS rules - so unless there is rule change, this is going to continue. This is quite controversial - and so my last word today on this topic.

The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

[helooo]

Hope USCIS allows the filing of I485 after I140 is approved.That will help everybody EB2/EB3 IC ROW.This is an Administrative fix.But again there should be a desire to fix the problem.

[vizcard]

It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?

Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

[geeaarpee]

Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

[justvisiting]

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...

[erikbond101]

EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...

Also you need to work one year outside US...in last 3 years...not sure it is possible for mass upgrade to send people outside..