EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Kanmani]

To be picky , exactly zero Fall Across would not result in retrogression of EB2-WW since there would be sufficient visas available. FB visas are available, so I don't understand that comment.

If EB2-WW need more visas, they are still not likely to retrogress, since they would then begin to consume Fall Down visas which would otherwise have been available to EB2-I. Only if that supply becomes exhausted would there be a need to retrogress EB2-WW.

Sorry, I missed the Fall down numbers. I agree.

Sorry, I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

What I wanted to convey is 'I disagree with you', I know it is not wise to do so

CO is expecting a spillover from EB1 to EB2I asper the AILA discussion notes, with this comment why can't we take it as granted that current EB2-WW demand would allow such a fall across satisfying all other 7% country limitation provisions

Spec thanks.

With so much of information provided by you, I stopped scribbling numbers long back, whenever I go through your calculations , I am always hearing a buzz in my head, which was the reason for my confused post above. You are doing way too much to follow. (This is of course a compliment )

[openaccount]

here is full article that AILA mentioned, this happened before FB numbers update it has exact same information mentioned in March VB

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...february-2013/

As usual some notes from CO which has no logic.

EB-2 India.** Very little, if any, movement expected in the short term due to upgrades (porting of priority date) from EB-3 India to EB-2 India.** According to Mr. Oppenheim, in December 2012 alone, India EB-2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. * Considering the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB-2 India could easily reach the annual limit — an indication that any forward movement is extremely unlikely. * Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down”* from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.** “Fall down” refers to taking numbers from one category which may remain unused (EB-1) and allocating t another category which has a high demand (EB-2 India, for example).**** Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 EB-2 India cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks.

With so much of information provided by you, I stopped scribbling numbers long back, whenever I go through your calculations , I am always hearing a buzz in my head, which was the reason for my confused post above. You are doing way too much to follow. (This is of course a compliment )

Kanmani,

That buzz is normal. I usually get a headache.

I don't expect people to necessarily agree - I think it is a good thing for statements / predictions / hypotheses to be questioned.

Thanks for the compliment. I know you read everything very thoroughly and have a very good grasp of what is going on.

The only article I have seen that mentioned a figure said that a total of 13k visas might be available to EB2-IC in FY2013.

That was pre the FB visas news. If EB2-WW use their extra visas and EB1, EB4 and EB5 extra visas eventually Fall Down to EB2 as well as the extra that EB2-IC receive directly because the 7% limit calculation, that is an extra 8.4k available to EB2-IC.

The adjusted figure would become 21.4k. Since EB2-C would use 4.1k, that would be 17.3k available to EB2-I.

That isn't really any different from what I am saying.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

That was pre the FB visas news. If EB2-WW use their extra visas and EB1, EB4 and EB5 extra visas eventually Fall Down to EB2 as well as the extra that EB2-IC receive directly because the 7% limit calculation, that is an extra 8.4k available to EB2-IC.

I understood. Fall down from EB1 is not just from EB1, it is the consolidated figure from EB4----->EB5------>EB1------->EB2ROW-------> EB2IC.

Justified!

[Spectator]

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

[CleanSock]

Why would CO say such a thing despite knowing the fact that there are extra 18K visas from FB?

here is full article that AILA mentioned, this happened before FB numbers update it has exact same information mentioned in March VB

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...february-2013/

As usual some notes from CO which has no logic.

EB-2 India.** Very little, if any, movement expected in the short term due to upgrades (porting of priority date) from EB-3 India to EB-2 India.** According to Mr. Oppenheim, in December 2012 alone, India EB-2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. * Considering the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB-2 India could easily reach the annual limit — an indication that any forward movement is extremely unlikely. * Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down”* from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.** “Fall down” refers to taking numbers from one category which may remain unused (EB-1) and allocating t another category which has a high demand (EB-2 India, for example).**** Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 EB-2 India cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

[SeekingGC2013]

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanks

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

[Spectator]

Why would CO say such a thing despite knowing the fact that there are extra 18K visas from FB?

CleanSock,

Since the meeting pre-dates the announcement of the extra FB visas, I think we have to assume that the comments relate to a situation where only 140k were available and are based on that assumption (even if privately CO had knowledge of the FB numbers).

In that situation, EB2-WW would only have about 34k visa available to them. With that number it was not entirely impossible for the EB2-WW demand in FY2013 to exceed 34k plus any Fall Down available from EB1. If that were the case, EB2-WW would have to be retrogressed and EB2-IC would have essentially received no spillover at all.

With the extra 18k FB visa announcement, it becomes virtually impossible for EB2-WW to retrogress.

If EB2-WW usage is particularly high, then it could begin to impact the number of Fall Down visas available to EB2-I.

The other scenario that would necessitate EB2-WW retrogression is if CO allocates too many visas, too early, to EB2-IC, as he did last year, leaving too few for the actual EB2-WW demand in FY2013.

I don't think that is going to happen.

[bvsamrat]

Spec.

One thing that I can not quite follow is that being current despite clearing last years backlog (assuming that it is cleared by monthly quota and not borrowed from future) how EB2 WW can consume all their own and also extra from FB spill?,given that EB2 WW inventory in January 2013 is only 13,385 ( frankly I do not know the inventory as of now? which might explain somewhat ) and next few months applications might not be easily converted into demand ?

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

[dreamer]

Gurus have listed their predictions on 1st page. I am not a guru but will try my best to answer based on what I have been following on this thread.

Based on Spec's earlier analysis, looks like we will be getting approx. 21K SOFAD/Spillover (as he mentioned don't hung up on exact numbers). If we consider this number, from I-485 pending inventory data and March demand data, there is approximately,

• 22 k demand by end of Sep 2008 for IC
• 24 k demand by end of Oct 2008 for IC

So, based on how much buffer CO wants, dates can move anywhere between Sep 2008 - Dec 2008 by end of FY 2013, i.e., Sep 2013. Hope this helps.

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanks

[Spectator]

My last on the subject for a while.

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanks

SeekingGC2013,

Some people get annoyed when I switch from Calculation Mode to Prediction Mode.

All I will say is that range is not unrealistic.

Gurus have listed their predictions on 1st page. I am not a guru but will try my best to answer based on what I have been following on this thread.

Based on Spec's earlier analysis, looks like we will be getting approx. 21K SOFAD/Spillover (as he mentioned don't hung up on exact numbers). If we consider this number, from I-485 pending inventory data and March demand data, there is approximately,

• 22 k demand by end of Sep 2008 for IC
• 24 k demand by end of Oct 2008 for IC

So, based on how much buffer CO wants, dates can move anywhere between Sep 2008 - Dec 2008 by end of FY 2013, i.e., Sep 2013. Hope this helps.

dreamer,

Remember that those figures do not include any approvals in the first 4 months of FY2013 for EB2-IC or any future approvals that are not already part of the Demand Data. The other part we don't know is what % of pending cases will actually be approved, other than it probably won't be 100%.

[idiotic]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/topics/news/

Multiple lawyers have started putting the 22nd AILA meeting details out on their webpage. Food for thought.

[pdmay2008]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/topics/news/

Multiple lawyers have started putting the 22nd AILA meeting details out on their webpage. Food for thought.

Yes. But they are definitely the information before FB Spill over news. They might have posted same notes today. If you think based on numbers available, there will be definitely big forward movement in Q4. Let's hope for the best.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard figures have been updated with the December 2012 figures.

[CleanSock]

Thank You Spec! That explains it all.

CleanSock,

Since the meeting pre-dates the announcement of the extra FB visas, I think we have to assume that the comments relate to a situation where only 140k were available and are based on that assumption (even if privately CO had knowledge of the FB numbers).

In that situation, EB2-WW would only have about 34k visa available to them. With that number it was not entirely impossible for the EB2-WW demand in FY2013 to exceed 34k plus any Fall Down available from EB1. If that were the case, EB2-WW would have to be retrogressed and EB2-IC would have essentially received no spillover at all.

With the extra 18k FB visa announcement, it becomes virtually impossible for EB2-WW to retrogress.

If EB2-WW usage is particularly high, then it could begin to impact the number of Fall Down visas available to EB2-I.

The other scenario that would necessitate EB2-WW retrogression is if CO allocates too many visas, too early, to EB2-IC, as he did last year, leaving too few for the actual EB2-WW demand in FY2013.

I don't think that is going to happen.

[incredible]

Hi
I am new to this forum and amazed at the amount of calculations etc that are used in this forum. My priority date is similar to what gkjppp had. What is the probability of early 2010 becoming current in the next financial year (2014) ?

[gkjppp]

if current trend continuous for next couple of years without immigration reform, its unlikely to be current. with FB spillover we may or maynot reach sep'2008 this year. again there must be retro during start of next fiscal year to takecare of porting etc. it needs almost 25k+ visas for 2014 to see light for us.Spec has already explained with data.

Hi
I am new to this forum and amazed at the amount of calculations etc that are used in this forum. My priority date is similar to what gkjppp had. What is the probability of early 2010 becoming current in the next financial year (2014) ?

[Spectator]

if current trend continuous for next couple of years without immigration reform, its unlikely to be current. with FB spillover we may or maynot reach sep'2008 this year. again there must be retro during start of next fiscal year to takecare of porting etc. it needs almost 25k+ visas for 2014 to see light for us.Spec has already explained with data.

gkjppp,

Unfortunately, I agree with your prognosis.

With porting over 2 years, it probably requires close to 45k EB2-I approvals for EB2-I to reach the end of 2009. Then it requires about 1k per month within 2010 according to the current figures.

Including EB2-C that translates into more than 50k SOFAD across FY2013 and FY2014 just to reach 2010.

That is probably a tough ask.

[dreamer]

Spectator.

I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.

Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.

My last on the subject for a while.

SeekingGC2013,

Some people get annoyed when I switch from Calculation Mode to Prediction Mode.

All I will say is that range is not unrealistic.

dreamer,

Remember that those figures do not include any approvals in the first 4 months of FY2013 for EB2-IC or any future approvals that are not already part of the Demand Data. The other part we don't know is what % of pending cases will actually be approved, other than it probably won't be 100%.

[druvraj]

With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

I have updated the header http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013

Unfortunately I too do not have any better news. Every single category has strong ongoing demand and significant backlog which together pretty much leaves EB2IC high and dry this year. The only thing that will work in EB2IC favor is the 12K FB visas (5K alloted to EB3 and 1K to EB5).

I am now reasonably comfortable with this forecast. IMHO the forecast error could be 2-3 months max.

[go4green]

Hello every one.

I have been an avid reader and follower of this Forum from long time. Just wanted to share my thoughts.
This is the only forum (to my knowledge) which discusses and analyzes the immigration numbers with a blend of calculations and sensible predictions.
I would like to express my heart full Thanks and Admiration towards Q, Spec and all the others who are contributing so VALUABLE insights.

Thank you for letting me to be a part of this group.

Spectator.

I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.

Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.

[bvsamrat]

I will frame it otherway. The number balance may not match always.

We see that there is atleast some percent unresolved cases either due to RFE (Either EVL or AC21) or some other checks being re-initiated.

This percent number could be very much a gray area, but CO might have some idea of this or may take guess.

For eg. if we take this at 20%, then the PD progress date would dart head.

More delay in applying the spill over, the more progression of PD would be.

For eg. If in strict sense, spill over is applied in last quarter, the PD would have to be randonly extended ahead but with a plan to pull back or control in next 3 months.

I don't know if it's a factor, but if it is, it will be a massive boon to EB2-I. True, the USCIS will issue less GCs, but those will be to EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 - i.e. categories those are current and those require processing right now. EB2-I cases have been processed and 42K pre-adjudicated cases are ready to be given green cards. If other categories do not get theirs, EB2-I will gladly absorb whatever it can get. Remember - a slow processing by the USCIS is what the EB2-I needs to waltz ahead.

[erikbond101]

Updated on February 17, 2013

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158.5k being available to EB:

EB1 ----– 10.3
EB2-M –--- 1.8
EB2-P –-- (0.5)
EB2-ROW – (0.4)
EB3 ------ 0.0
EB4 ------ 3.3
EB5 ------ 1.3
Total --- 15.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China should not use any spillover and use only their 3.2k initial allocation.

EB2-India would have around 19-20k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about July 2008.

The above might be conservative. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P.

It is quite possible that the numbers available will be somewhat better than that.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move to nearer the end of 2008.

Movement into 2009 seems relatively less likely, but it is not impossible.

]

Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.

[geeaarpee]

One quick question probably a very stupid question (as you can see this is my post here...)

From the above post and in the other places before the porting #s for this year are being considered around 3k-5k - is it purely prediction or has some calculation behind (if so may I know how we ended up with this #? - from the recent Perm/I-140 approvals may be?). Also this 3k-5k is only the primary or include the dependants too?

BTW, Hats off to all the gurus, pandits, sophomores and others here - great job!