Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?
Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?
SmileBaba,Originally Posted by SmileBaba
Please check first page of this thread for updated overall predictions for FY2013
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Q, S and other Gurus on this forum, does the prediction for EB2I spillovers on the first page of this thread change in lieu of the this latest update from AILA?.....if so, what should be the revised number of the spillover to EB2I?
Thanks!
I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.
Is there a link to the conversation details from yesterday? I haven't seen anything.
Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...
Its a typo. Please read "EB3IC are not going to get "
The essence is,
Spillover to EB3 ---->EB3ROW----->EB3ROW NIL------> EB3IC
Spillover to EB2 ---->EB2ROW----->EB2ROW NIL------> EB2IC
Currently EB3 has no potential spillover possibility, so if any amendment is passed, and the spillover rule is changed, the distribution would be like as mentioned above.
There are 23,975 EB2-I cases (as per DD) pending before Jan-1-2009 plus lots of porting cases.
If 18K visas are available from spill over, prediction on dates might move to early 2009 is 100% not possible.
I feel dates will not move beyond July 2008.
I am not a expert on this, Please correct me If I am wrong ?
Note: We should have DD by month/year. (:--
With so many unknown factors, my honest opinion is not to come to any conclusion at this point of time. Lets hope for the best!
edisonguy,
Unless many earlier PD cases are "left behind", I don't see Cut Off Dates progressing into 2009.
Unless the update to the article is momentous, I didn't see anything in it to alter my thinking.
I've been struggling to properly convey the numbers. I'll have one more go and leave it at that. Please don't get hung up on the exact numbers - it is an example within a range (possibly quite a wide one).
a) 18,000 extra visas for EB have been announced.
b) Of those, 5,148 will be made available to EB3 and cannot be used towards spillover. That leaves 12,852 extra visas that could Fall Down or Fall Across to EB2-I. I say EB2-I because I don't believe EB2-C will benefit from any of the extra visas.
c) EB2-WW used 25,009 visas last year. Had they not been retrogressed, they might have reached 32,000. That means there are 6,991 visas to flow through into FY2013 above the normal EB2-WW run rate.
d) The allocation for EB2-WW in FY2013 is 38,862. That is 6,862 higher than the 32,000 normal run rate they might use. The figure is so close to the extra number flowing from FY20112 to 2013, we can say that EB2-WW would use their entire new allocation and not provide Fall Across to EB2-I.
e) The EB2-WW share of the 12,862 visas above is 4,427. That leaves a balance of 8,425 extra visas available to EB2-I.
f) Currently, I am using a figure of 35k usage in EB1, 8k in EB4 and 10k in EB5. That provides an extra 5,000, 2,000 and zero visas to EB2-I had there been no extra FB visas.
g) The total spillover to EB2-I becomes 8,425 + 5,000 + 2,000 = 15,425 spillover visas.
h) Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives total visa available to EB2-I of 15,425 + 2,803 = 17,868. EB2-C receives 3,163 visas for SOFAD of 21,031.
As a table, this becomes
There are ------------- 18,000 - extra visas
Less -------------------(5,148)- to EB3
To EB2 ---------------- 12,852
Used by EB2-WW ---------(4,427)
Available for EB2-IC --- 8,425 - as spillover/increased allocation from extra FB visas
Normal SO from EB1 ----- 5,000 - Based on 35k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB4 ----- 2,000 - Based on 8k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB5 --------- 0 - Based on 10k usage of normal allocation
Total to EB2-IC ------- 15,425
Add Normal allocation -- 5,606
SOFAD EB2-IC ---------- 21,031
Total to EB2-C --------- 3,163
Total to EB2-I -------- 17,868
SOFAD ----------------- 21,031
or, if EB2-C receives 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (as the INA appears to allow):
Total to EB2-C --------- 4,192
Total to EB2-I -------- 16,838
SOFAD ----------------- 21,031
I will reiterate again this is a simplified example of my current thinking. It evolves as more information becomes available. In fact, I've thrown it together so quickly, I have almost certainly left something out.
Feel free to plug in your own assumptions.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My immediate reaction is
1) porting will consume 3k of that 21k and
2) those are conservative spillover numbers.
I expect around 20k for EB2I. But really it's a lot of guess work at this point. At the end of the day, I expect dates to move to at least the end of Sept 2008.
vizcard,
I think 20k is a reasonable number.
I did ask people not to get hung up by the exact numbers used in the calculation. It is meant to be more generic than that. I think it illustrates more that people should not expect 30k or 40k for EB2-I, unless something extremely unusual (and outside my comprehension) happens.
As for spillover, EB4 used 7.5k last year. I don't see that decreasing and the backlog of I-360 cases is now quite large.
For EB5, no likely retrogression for EB5-C is a good sign, but it is still likely to approach full usage. EB5 used 7.6k last year and they also have a very large backlog of I-526 cases. EB5 is going through a tricky period at the moment, but I expect that to be resolved before year end.
EB1 is probably the trickiest to call. My estimate is little more than the half way point between approvals in FY2011 and FY2012 and increased approvals within EB1-I can probably fill that gap. We'll see.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I guess the AILA posting that you are asking about is this one. Found it on Ron Gotcher's forum today where a forum member posted it.
http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-...backlog-issues
There was supposedly another meeting yesterday. It's referenced on the AILA site but its for "members only". The content could very well be the same as your link.
That was a typo. Thanks Kanmani for identifying.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec,
Looking at the difference in inventory data between 10/1/12 and 1/3/13 for EB2ROW, it appears that around 7k visas have been issued in Q1, which matches with the figures mentioned in C. Here is the current USCIS EB2 inventory as on 1/3/13:
ROW: 13362
Mexico : 551
Phillipines: 1512
Total: 15425
Assuming 10% cases will be delayed, so approvable cases will be around 14k. This added to the already approved cases becomes around 21k visas.
In order for EB2ROW/M/P to reach 38862, USCIS would need to receive about 18k applications between Jan and May and approve them by September, assuming
I485's filed beyond May won't be approved in this year. Do think that USCIS will receive and receive about 3600 per month from Jan to May? I did not see such high EB2ROW demand in the last few years inventory data.
The amount of data and knowledge of people in this forum is amazing. Thanks of all the information and analysis.
What is stopping the controller from moving the dates forward as half year is almost passed and he got 18K additional visas?
bandoayan,
The USCIS Inventory only captures data for cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Many Concurrent Filed cases are probably never captured in the USCIS Inventory.
For Categories (such as EB1) and Groups (such as EB2-ROW) that are generally Current, it does not capture the full numbers. The 7k only represents clearing the numbers that built up during retrogression, but they are not the only approvals for EB2-ROW. If you don't believe me, try using the Inventory for a previous full year (say FY2011) to match the actual numbers approved (30.2k). The Corresponding number for EB2-WW (EB2-ROW-M-P) is 34.6k.
For Q1, I would estimate (from historical Trackitt data) that EB2-WW used something over 13k (of which EB2-ROW was something over 11k). That is much more in line with also having to clear the accumulated cases due to retrogression in FY2012. It is also in line with all overall EB visas available in Q1 being used.
Currently, EB2-WW appears to somewhere over the 20k mark. Even now, it appears that about 20% of cases received by USCIS in June 2012 and 40% of those received in Oct/Nov 2012 still await approval.
Since USCIS seem to be approving a lot of cases in about 4 months, we are still some way from seeing the last of the cases that might still be approved in FY2013.
EB2-WW averaged 2.8k approvals per month in FY2012 and 2.9k approvals per month in FY2011. Even if monthly approvals for EB2-WW drop to 85% of their FY2012 levels going forward, EB2-WW will still reach their revised FY2013 allocation.
Even if I am overestimating the current number, that is enough "wiggle room" for it to still happen.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
What is button line here?
indian1975,
That I don't expect any Fall Across from EB2-WW to EB2-I.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB2I or EB3-I ?
edisonguy,
Unused visas can (where allowed) either:
a) Fall Up from a lower Category to a higher Category e.g. Visas can Fall Up from EB4 and EB5 to EB1.
b) Fall Down from a higher Category to a lower Category e.g. Visas can Fall Down from EB1 to EB2 or from EB2 to EB3.
c) Fall Across within the same Category e.g. EB2-ROW to EB2-I.
So, by definition, the statement is talking about movement from EB2-WW to EB2-I.
You may also have seen the term SOFAD. This stands for Spill Over Fall Across (and) Down. In addition it also includes the normal allocation, so it represents the total number of visas from All sources.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Kudos for such a patient response.
Spec,
As per the trackitt data, EB2-WW approvals FY2013 are higher than that of in the previous years', but it was because of the clearance of stagnation caused by the overallocation .
So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming atleast 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.
Your calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.
In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .
What do you think?
Kanmani,
That is effectively what I am saying.
If, for example, there were 2.8k approvals / month for EB2-WW normally and 7k retrogression backlog to clear, that would be (2.8k * 5) + 7 = 21k to date which is about where we seem to be.
The allocation for EB2-WW, including the extra FB visas, is 38.7k. To reach that would require a further 17.7k over 7 months, which is a continuing average monthly rate of about 2.5k per month. I think that is entirely possible for EB2-WW.
I think that is a little on the low side. EB2-WW PERM certifications in FY2012 only covered slightly past June 2012 PD, so I think a figure of 45% would be more appropriate.So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming at least 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.
To be pickyYour calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.
If EB2-WW need more visas, they are still not likely to retrogress, since they would then begin to consume Fall Down visas which would otherwise have been available to EB2-I. Only if that supply becomes exhausted would there be a need to retrogress EB2-WW.
Sorry, I'm not entirely sure what you mean.In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .
What do you think?
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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