Thanks a bunch Spec for the excellent work!
I hope these additional GCs changes the outlook for EB2I in CO's mind soon. When do you expect DOS start moving the cut-off dates forward for EB2I and roughly how much do you expect the first forward move to be?
Thanks again for the superb work you been doing for the legal immigration community!
Sent you a PM Spectator
Thank you!
I am new to this forum.. With all the discussion on spill over, didnt we get spill over in 2012 also? If yes then how did EB2 I end up in Unavailable state or is it that there was no spill over last year?
sandyn1116,
Welcome to the forum!!
We did get spill over in 2012 and dates moved to 01 May 2010 before it become unavailable in Jun 2012 visa bulletin. Dates were moved too aggressively than available Visas, so they had to make them Unavailable until they can come-up with priority date of 01 Sep 2004 for next FY in October 2012 Visa bulletin. Dates were struck pretty-much around there for more than 6 months now using up available monthly visa quota by porting/pending cases.
Hope this helps.
Gurus, please correct me if I missed/misstated something.
Originally Posted by sandyn1116
Last year CO started releasing Spill Over numbers ahead of time(Nov to April) to build the pipe line. He did not have enough clarity on what would be the actual demand at that time. He released more numbers to EB2 I than what he is supposed to, that made EB2 I unavailable at the end of the year.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
General questions should be posted in the forum.
longwait100,
The only actual extra visas available now (based on official documents) are due to the increase in 7% between 40,040 and 45,188 for the 6 months (Oct-Mar) to date.
That is (3,163-2,803)/2 = 180 visas
For a single month, there might be 285+180 = 465 visas available if CO decides to play "catch up".
Given CO mentioned that retrogression from 01SEP04 was possible without the extra visas, I think the extra numbers will not have a great effect and the Cut Off Date is still likely to remain at 01SEP04 through June 2013. If there is any forward movement, it is likely to be very small.
Spillover remains a potential bonus and I don't think CO will release it until the July 2013 VB. He released it too early last year and was burnt. By June 2013 (when the VB is released), he should have a better idea of what the other Categories (EB1 and EB2-WW in particular) are likely to use.
sandyn1116,
EB2-India received 16,923 spillover visas last year (19,726 in total). CO started releasing spillover from the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, CO allocated far more visas to EB2-I than were actually available.
When he realised this (too late), he had to make EB2-I Unavailable and retrogress EB2-WW to stay within the numbers available for EB2.
For this year, to date, CO appears to have been only using the initial EB2-I allocation of 2,803 visas (now raised to 3,173). Because 27% can be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters, that was 252 visas per month (now 285 visas per month).
There have been sufficient EB2-I cases per month with a PD before September 2004 to use that number of visas, so the Cut Off Date has not moved.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Welcome to the forum. Nice to see lots of new people here. Q and spec are just awesome beyond words.
Spec, I agree on what you said on when CO is going to release Spill over numbers.
But it is always possible that he can play the number game again ahead of time based on these extra numbers. It is all based on what is the current demand trend and any possible spikes in demand from other categories. Last year scenario was different, where he did not have enough data on the demand from EB2I/C. Now he has clear picture on what is the actual demand and he can do controlled movement ahead of time to manage USCIS workload.
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
IMHO, Last years inventory was low, hence the action to extend the PD. Now there are enough inventory and demand. More over demand increase is unpredictablle that it matches with monthly allocation about 300 per month. If spill over applied in next month itself, the dates may once again retrogress in August/Septmber. if the numbers of porters exceed the so called controlled monthly allocation of spill over.
Only if we know the number of EB3-EB2 upgrades before 2007 and waiting ready to interfile, then the situation would be clearer.
Spectator,
I still can't understand the reasoning behind EB1 and EB2-ROW spillover estimates on the front page. EB1 spillover seems too high and EB2-ROW seems too low. For EB1 I understand the Kazarian effect but in the years before it the spillover wasn't as high as the estimate. Also, no one seems to take into account that EB2-ROW PERM (approved) applications have had 43% reduction over last year i.e. 2012 compared to 2011.
Andy,
I'll try to explain my reasoning. You don't have to agree with it.
EB1
In FY2011, EB1 had 25.2k approvals. It is likely this was artificially low due to the delay introduced by the Kazarian ruling. As a result, it is likely that some EB1 cases were backlogged and rolled in to FY2012.
In FY2012, EB1 had 39.4k approvals. It is at least possible that this number is artificially high due to the rollover from FY2011.
My guess for EB1 approvals in FY2013 is 35k. Normally that would result in 5k spillover. Due to visas allocated to EB1 from the extra FB visas, that becomes 10k.
It is a guess. The official information on EB1 is non-existent. Trackitt is a slightly unreliable source because:
a) EB1 approvals can be "lumpy".
b) There are very few non Indian approvals.
c) The Indian approvals are mainly EB1C.
FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. No-one knows what a "normal" year looks like. We might speculate that the numbers will be lower than the 41k seen in both FY2009 and FY2010. I agree that there is some chance of approvals being higher than I am assuming.
Overall EB1 approvals are currently running lower on Trackitt than the same time last year (but there are very few non Indian approvals). EB1-I approvals are currently running at the same rate as last year. On Trackitt, EB1-I approvals account for 87% of approvals. In real life, last year, EB1-I accounted for 24% of approvals.
EB2-ROW
Approvals for EB2-ROW (and EB2-Philippines) have been extremely high so far compared to a normal year. Even if they now progress at a more normal rate, they will probably exceed the allocation. There is some risk that they will use more than I am assuming. Equally, there is a risk they will use a lower amount.
I think you are misunderstanding the EB2-ROW PERM figures for 2012. They do not represent a full calendar year.
a) Only FY2012 PERM approvals are included. This totally excludes October-December 2012 PD.
b) Because of PERM processing times, the figure only includes PDs for January-June 2012 and part of July 2012.
The 9.3k only represents little over 50% of what the final figure might be. That compares to the 2011 figure to date of 17.0k.
The 2012 figures appear to be very similar to 2011. Only time will give the true answer. They certainly do not represent a drop of 43%.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Spec and I see that the DD is now updated with these additional numbers..
Cheers,
For the EB2IC cases with PDs in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially Q4), remember that it is in your best interest that the spillover is allocated very late in FY13. This will minimize the impact of porting. If you are on the borderline, every visa counts.
Similarly for EB3IC folks, you need to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as you become current.
Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?
(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?
Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).
Assuming the porter has already filed their paperwork, the EB3 porter always has an advantage over an EB2.
Here is the Perm Approvals per year for last five years and Q1 of 2013.
These are not based on the Priority Dates, these numbers are based on the FY.
Fisical Year Total India China ROW Certified/
Certified-ExpiredWirthDrawn Denied Total Certified/
Certified-ExpiredWirthDrawn Denied Total % Certified/
Certified-ExpiredWirthDrawn Denied Total % Certified/
Certified-ExpiredWirthDrawn Denied Total % 2008 49205 2063 10729 61997 16569 593 1676 18838 33.67341 3328 106 353 3787 6.76354 29308 1364 8700 39372 59.56305 2009 29502 3389 5356 38247 11387 1174 971 13532 38.59738 2112 205 199 2516 7.15884 16003 2010 4186 22199 54.24378 2010 70237 2736 8439 81412 28930 1085 1981 31996 41.18912 4052 168 338 4558 5.76904 37255 1483 6120 44858 53.04184 2011 59863 2960 10384 73207 31273 1356 2944 35573 52.24095 3448 158 425 4031 5.75982 25142 1446 7015 33603 41.99923 2012 54616 3269 5908 63793 30306 1781 2422 34509 55.48923 3354 180 251 3785 6.14106 20956 1308 3235 25499 38.36971 2013 12123 680 1532 14335 6935 6935 57.20531 791 791 6.52479 4397 4397 36.2699
The bigger difference really is that a porter can become current just by virtue of filing in EB2 & without waiting for visa bulletin dates to move.
But other than that - I don't really see much difference because most likely in the scenarios you have painted - everybody would be preadjudicated and so each person should get a GC within 485 processing timeframe (in fact much earlier since 485 would be preadjudicated).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q. Can you please clarify
Suppose a Porter with PD in 2006 from EB3, gets approved EB2-I-140 in in February 2013 and does he get adjudicated automatically?.
Can he interfile for I-485 change(EB3 to EB2) when his PD is not current? (as of now Sep. 2004)?
The EB3 date need to be current in EB2 in order to port. In this case since EB3 date is in 2006 and EB2 date is still in 2004, clearly this is not eligible for interfiling. But as the EB2 dates advance in 2008-09 by Sep 2013, the interfiling is ok even if the applicant's PD on EB2 related 140 would be in 2011 or 12. Does that make sense?
p.s. - In my earlier comment I meant to say "possibly can become current" as opposed to "does become current".
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand
Hi,
I am new to this thread and had a general question. Say the visa bulletin date for EB-2 moves to Jan 15, 2009 - will someone with a PD of Jan 15, 2009 be considered for approval, or will it only include people with PDs Jan 14, 2009 and earlier?
Thank you!
fountainhead,
The PD must be EARLIER THAN the Cut Off Date to be considered Current. An I-485 can only be approved if it is Current.
In your example, Jan 15, 2009 PD would NOT be Current and could not be approved.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
bvsamrat,
I have been thinking about this too.
I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.
a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.
b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.
c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.
d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.
In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".
I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.
I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?
Spec, the very thought of the repeat of last year worries me, as my PD of Aug 2007 got run over due to this random approval strategy then. Hope it does not happen again to me and anyone else.
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