EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[openaccount]

just now saw this in other forum DD is updated with latest limits.

Spec, CO might have looked at your post and updated DD

So this confirms 2 things:
1)CO might have missed this information or did not know about this when he put out those comments in March VB
2)There is pretty good chance for dates to move in Q3 may be in May/June at least July

E1
3,164
3,164
45,188
E2
3,163
3,163
45,188
E3/EW
2,863
3,163
45,188**
E4/SR
785
785
11,218
E5
85
785
11,218
Total
10,060*
11,060
158,000

[bvsamrat]

Congrats Spec. We are proud of you

Modified to 158,000 now from 140,000

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[QUOTE=YTeleven;32954]Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit

[Spectator]

Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

All Demand Data Documents ever published can be found here. I try to update it every month.

[openaccount]

Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.

It was not updated when it was released last week. I think it was some time yesterday or today.

[YTeleven]

Spec,

Yes. you are correct. Even I've a copy of mine of 08Feb and it has 140k only.
WOW, seems CO is watching this thread....

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

[suninphx]

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

How cool is that .. next bulletin (comments section ) could be inetresting

[snvlgopal]

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thanks

[YTeleven]

Yes. Its really interesting to see the next VB.
Probably CO is getting ready for spillover from next month onwards otherwise I don't see any urgency in updateing a already published DD with newer data.

How cool is that .. next bulletin (comments section ) could be inetresting

[Spectator]

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thanks

snvlgopal,

Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, I think it will have very little impact for EB3-I.

The extra numbers only increase the EB3-I allocation (7%) from 2,803 to 3,163 according to the revised numbers in the DD document. That is only the equivalent of an extra 30 visas per month.

Without actual spillover visas, it is very difficult for substantial movement for anybody in EB3. Unfortunately, that is not a realistic prospect anytime in the near future, unless CIR passes.

[snvlgopal]

Thanks Spec, hmm my wait still continues

[triplet]

Spec, what a find with the FB visas, you're turning into a legend now whether you like it or not It is perhaps testimony to how good you can get at doing something when you pursue it with passion, I'm guessing you enjoy the problem solving. Well, the forum is lucky to have you! I hope people respond with the same passion (in a positive way) if things take a turn for the worse.

[venkat]

Spec,

What a genius you are?

You will never believe how many EB2 India families are going to have a happy long weekend (Monday is a holiday for me)

You deserve all the credit and you are awesome man...

As someone said why should CO amend the demand data to include the additional visas for the demand data this is already published. Perhaps he is already started making plans....

There is no doubt someone must have told him about this new development in the last day or two...Remember my post this morning to make sure we need to spread the word to 'CO and the visa office'...

Now the only thing that is needed is to make sure all of these extra visas get utilized and turn into GREEN CARDS

Will he publish a new visa bulletin (amended one) to remove the negative projection he had made?

Thanks to everyone..what a great forum....

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

All Demand Data Documents ever published can be found here. I try to update it every month.

[gs1968]

To spec
I saw this on ILW today and it says that the EB-5 usage may increase in the Q4.Hopefully this will not impact spillover to EB2

http://discuss.ilw.com/content.php?1...nard-Wolfsdorf

[pdmay2008]

snvlgopal,

Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, I think it will have very little impact for EB3-I.

The extra numbers only increase the EB3-I allocation (7%) from 2,803 to 3,163 according to the revised numbers in the DD document. That is only the equivalent of an extra 30 visas per month.

Without actual spillover visas, it is very difficult for substantial movement for anybody in EB3. Unfortunately, that is not a realistic prospect anytime in the near future, unless CIR passes.

If CO applies quarterly spill over like he did last year all of the extra numbers from eb4,5,1 comes to EB2 right away as those categories are already current. I guess CO will assess current usage and future demand based on history for EB4 , EB5 & EB1 and decide what would be the date for EB2I in next bulletin. China is already at 15-FEB-08, he will try to bring EB2I also to the same date. In any case he will do controlled movement as he already knows the existing demand.

Let's hope for the best. Spec your finding making rounds every where now and you are a STAR.

[redsox2009]

My special Thanks to Spectator for giving valuable info which no other websites/lawyers were able to provide us.

[erikbond101]

Thank you Spectator. You deserve all the praise bestowed on you.
You have already provided wonderful analysis with all spillover category.
I still have some confusion. Since all the unused FB visa, DOS has already divided across. So we will only know in last quarter how many visas will be available for EB2-IC.
Since DOS/USCIS has already adjusted their demand data. Can you please adjust prediction on spilovers for my curious mind?

EB1 - 5K?? (45188)
EB4 - 2K?? (11218)
Eb3 - 00 (45188)
EB5 - ?? (11218)
EB2WW - ?? (41188 - 6326 = 38862)

I'm not sure how accurate my calculation is but if EB2I will recive another 13K this fiscal year, date may reach March 2008 and then for each 1500-1800 extra numbers it will move another month.

Thank you again

[YTeleven]

snvlgopal,
Assuming no changes to the current immigration laws and considering current porting rate and existing demand till APR'2003, your PD may become current sometime around JUL'14.

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thanks

[natvyas]

The news of additional visa from FB category is a welcome relief after 5 months of gloom and doom. Now that this is a certainty given that the March DD document has been modified to reflect this, I was wondering how would the CO handle the timing of the SO reallocation which now has two sources 1) FB and 2) EB.

[kkruna]

The news of additional visa from FB category is a welcome relief after 5 months of gloom and doom. Now that this is a certainty given that the March DD document has been modified to reflect this, I was wondering how would the CO handle the timing of the SO reallocation which now has two sources 1) FB and 2) EB.

Now that there are "formally" more numbers, we can possibly deduce how many porters are actually there whenever they move the dates. Porting has been hyped a lot by CO, and it would be good to see the actual numbers.

[harapatta2012]

Even after 4 days, news on other places is not released about FB xtra visa.WOW!!
Murthy has posted , dismal putlook for eb2 YESTERDAY, feb15th..Murthy...wake up...Others..come on!!!this is IT.
Anyways...I am glad that I have been following this forum. It is huge help..and this instance has proven it more than ever.

[helooo]

Hi
I am new to this site but was very happy to see some hope.When do we think the Movement for June 2008 EB2I?

Thanks in Advance.

[Spectator]

Thank you Spectator. You deserve all the praise bestowed on you.
You have already provided wonderful analysis with all spillover category.
I still have some confusion. Since all the unused FB visa, DOS has already divided across. So we will only know in last quarter how many visas will be available for EB2-IC.
Since DOS/USCIS has already adjusted their demand data. Can you please adjust prediction on spilovers for my curious mind?

EB1 - 5K?? (45188)
EB4 - 2K?? (11218)
Eb3 - 00 (45188)
EB5 - ?? (11218)
EB2WW - ?? (41188 - 6326 = 38862)

I'm not sure how accurate my calculation is but if EB2I will recive another 13K this fiscal year, date may reach March 2008 and then for each 1500-1800 extra numbers it will move another month.

Thank you again

erikbond101,

Q, Veni and myself have updated our overall predictions to take account of the extra FB numbers on the first page of this thread.

[ontheedge]

Spec, we cannot thank you enough for your analysis and painstaking data gathering! You are a blessing to us on this forum.

[Spectator]

I didn't see anyone else on this forum mention this (apologies if I did miss it).

The Annual Numerical Limits document on the DOS website was also updated on February 15, 2013 to reflect 158k visas for EB are now available.

[erikbond101]

Thank you. again