EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[suninphx]

.

Really appreciate your effort putting these numbers together. I would not worry much about whether calculation right or wrong because no one has been 100% right here.
And btw even if we get 20K that will make many of us happy.

[bvsamrat]

If 20K many will be happy. If 40K many more will be happy and if 400K (by CIR) all will be happy forever

Really appreciate your effort putting these numbers together. I would not worry much about whether calculation right or wrong because no one has been 100% right here.
And btw even if we get 20K that will make many of us happy.

[Spectator]

The problems with the Diversity Visa lottery last year seems to have had a fairly dramatic effect on the numbers, which dropped from 51.1k in FY2011 to 34.5k in FY2012 (a reduction of 33%).

Hardest hit seems to have been Africa as a whole, who account for 63% of the total reduction.

Strangely, Bangladesh numbers dropped 90% (3.1k to 0.3k) and their reduction was more than the total net reduction for Asia.

PS - For those that don't remember, the first Diversity Lottery was flawed because it did not include everyone and was declared void. A second lottery was held at a later date. It appears that people either were unaware they had been selected in the second draw, or simply ran out of time to be processed before the September 30, 2012 deadline.

[mailmvr]

How does that impact the numbers of SOFAD to EB community?

[qesehmk]

It has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on EB.

How does that impact the numbers of SOFAD to EB community?

[dreamer]

Gurus/Friends,

I am posting it in here as this thread has more traffic, please feel free to move it to appropriate thread. I have got an RFE for EAD renewal and posted my question in below thread. I would greatly appreciate your input in this regard.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...AP-Renewal-RFE

Thanks for your time!!

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I have a clarification to seek not regarding the bulletin. So, moderators pls feel free to move it once somebody has answered it.

I just started my 6th yr on H1b & yesterday got to know that my company has been acquired. I would like to know what happens to my H1b/Green card petitions once the closing happens. Given this background, I've the following questions:

1. I presume my new employer would 've to do some amendment filing. WOuld this only be for H1b or for green card too?

a. Amendment for H1b would mean just a form saying Mr. X employed for Y is now working in the same job for Z or would a new LCA and all the process associated with a fresh H1b filing need to be followed.

b. Similar question for GC process. Would they 've to re-start the labor process (PWD, test the market etc) once the closing happens?

Thanks.

[geevikram]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[qesehmk]

Thanks geevikram. The number of EB2 2007 and prior is 7,300

This confirms that 2007 should easily cruise through this year after Jun 2013 when extra visas from EB5 EB1 and EB2ROW start coming into EB2I.

This also confirms that EB2I upgrades prior to 2007 from EB3I are now slowing down and may actually dip below 3K as more and more EB3 might already have upgraded. This doesn't mean that overall EB3I -> EB2I upgrades are slowing down. That is unknown. But everything else being equal overall porting should remain 3-5K (excluding any ROW porting which i have started to suspect could be as high as 10K. The reason I believe that is because ROW has a PERM discrepancy between EB2 approvals and actual PERM approvals).

Anyway - the key takeaway is - there will be a massive movement in EB2I at the end of 2013 Fiscal i.e between Jun-Sep 2013. IMHO the movement should be upto Sep 2008. Should be minimum Mar 2008.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[YTeleven]

From the above released DD, this will be the cutoff dates for EB2-I & EB3-I : 01-Sep-04 & 22-Nov-02 respectively for Mar'13 unless CO wants to issue more visas then the monthly quota.

[GCKnowHow]

The demand had increased for EB2 for all years, and this increase is on top of the visas issued last month.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[venkat]

Did anyone notice that the demand data prior to 2008 got reduced for the first time this year?
It has dropped from 8,050 to 7,300

Do you think this could be because of cleaning/removing of some old EB2 cases which are no longer applicable?
or they are just correcting the mistakes made earlier?

[YTeleven]

There is no such decrease, you have misread the earlier figure 7050 with 8050.

Did anyone notice that the demand data prior to 2008 got reduced for the first time this year?
It has dropped from 8,050 to 7,300

Do you think this could be because of cleaning/removing of some old EB2 cases which are no longer applicable?
or they are just correcting the mistakes made earlier?

[username]

Demand data for March 2013
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[qbloguser]

Saw this message on USCIS page when I logged in today:

"Expect a 30-45-day delay between when your application or petition is filed and when your information is available in Case Status Online, depending on the volume of applications USCIS receives."

Has anyone seen this before?

[ksur23]

Apologies if posting in the wrong forum.

My status for 485 says "initial review"on USCIS site, my pd is jan 2009 and I applied last year (feb 2009). Is it normal to be in this status?

thanks.

[qesehmk]

absolutely ok ksur. mine said so until i actually received my gc! good luck.

Apologies if posting in the wrong forum.

My status for 485 says "initial review"on USCIS site, my pd is jan 2009 and I applied last year (feb 2009). Is it normal to be in this status?

thanks.

[ksur23]

absolutely ok ksur. mine said so until i actually received my gc! good luck.

Appreciate the response, thanks!

[Easwar]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5885.html

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:
F1: Three or four weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Three to five weeks
F3: One or two weeks
F4: Up to two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Three to six weeks

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Four to six weeks
China: Two to three months
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Four to six weeks
Philippines: Up to one week

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what is likely to happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[Easwar]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5885.html

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:
F1: Three or four weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Three to five weeks
F3: One or two weeks
F4: Up to two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Three to six weeks

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Four to six weeks
China: Two to three months
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Four to six weeks
Philippines: Up to one week

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what is likely to happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[redsox2009]

Visa Bulletin out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5885.html

It pointed worst prediction

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "

[yank]

Can we expect some number from EB5 in the last Quarter?

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

[geevikram]

Visa Bulletin out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5885.html

It pointed worst prediction

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "

I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[tatikonda]

Saw this message on USCIS page when I logged in today:

"Expect a 30-45-day delay between when your application or petition is filed and when your information is available in Case Status Online, depending on the volume of applications USCIS receives."

Has anyone seen this before?

From Ron's twits - looks like USCIS website is crushed with incoming work load.

http://www.lexisnexis.com/Community/...s-service.aspx

[yank]

Is it due to porting..Dates are in that range (2004-2005) for years now..still people are porting to EB2

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "